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Offshore Production is Important

Offshore Production is Important. 27% of U.S . oil production; ~$40 B /yr Katrina knocked out production & refining causing large spike in prices. Weather Impacts Industry in Many Important Ways. Fatigue. Extremes. Operations. Downtime Analysis. Pollutant Fates. Tows. Hurricanes.

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Offshore Production is Important

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  1. Offshore Production is Important • 27% of U.S. oil production; ~$40 B /yr • Katrina knocked out production & refining causing large spike in prices

  2. Weather Impacts Industry in Many Important Ways Fatigue Extremes Operations Downtime Analysis Pollutant Fates Tows

  3. Hurricanes • Generate waves up to 90 ft • Damage infrastructure • Production platforms • Pipelines • Refineries (50% of U. S. capacity) • Logistical support, e.g. shore bases • Affect cost of new facilities e.g. deepwater production facility costs $1 B • Generate evacuation costs & personnel risks ($100-$500 M/yr) Changes in future hurricanes will affect all of the above

  4. Ongoing Study: Climate Change & Hurricanes • Purpose: Estimate effect of climate change on future Gulf hurricanes • Scope • Modeling study conducted by NCAR • Validate by hindcastingpast 11 yrs • Forecast 20 yrs in the next 50 yr • Funding from DOE & 20 Oil Companies • Finish in Feb 2010 with workshop of world-wide experts NCAR model results showing change in hurricane potential in 2030 (blue indicates increase)

  5. Summary • Gulf of Mexico is an important contributor to US energy • Severe weather (hurricanes) costs: • Capital investments • Storm-related damage • Lost production • Supply interruptions & price increases • To properly plan, Industry needs to estimate future hurricane activity • Regional climate modeling is only viable tool to estimate future change

  6. Benefits of Regional Climate Modeling for the Offshore Oil IndustryDr.Cortis Cooper, Fellow

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