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ITU Regional Workshop on “ Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States ” (Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 ). Future Networks. John Visser, CD, P.Eng. +1 613 276 6096 jvisser@rogers.com. Outline. Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside?

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future networks

ITU Regional Workshop on “Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States”(Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 )

Future Networks

John Visser, CD, P.Eng.

+1 613 276 6096

jvisser@rogers.com

outline
Outline

Changes and Discontinuities

Where Should Intelligence Reside?

SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”

Some Thoughts on the Future

fundamental changes in telecoms
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
  • Started with Telegraph
    • Data (Morse code)
fundamental changes in telecoms1
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
  • Telegraph
  • Telephone
    • Manual to mechanical to software switching
    • Analog to TDM to IP
fundamental changes in telecoms2
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
  • Telegraph
  • Telephone
  • Data
    • Circuit-based, non-switched
    • Packet data
    • IP
fundamental changes in telecoms3
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
  • Telegraph
  • Telephone
  • Data
  • Internet and the WWW
    • IP
everything over ip and ip over everything
Everything Over IP andIP Over Everything

Any Service

&

Every Service

Internet Protocol

(IP)

Any Transport

&

Every Transport Technology

telecommunications industry constant innovation
Telecommunications Industry: Constant Innovation

VoIP and Converged Communications

Wireless to WiMAX/4G/LTE

Wireline to Wireless

Copper to Fiber

Change comes from disruption. And disruption is constant!

Analog to Digital

discontinuities
Discontinuities
  • Transition from Fixed to Mobile
    • Growth of fixed services slowing, turning negative
    • Mobile phone growth continues but levelling off due to market saturation
discontinuities1
Discontinuities

Phone Network

Data Network

  • Transition from Analog to Data
    • On circuit-switched (analog or TDM) voice networks, data is handled by making it look like voice (modems)
    • On packet switched data networks, voice is handled by making it look like data (VoIP)
discontinuities and convergence
Discontinuities and Convergence
  • … so we enlarged them to just about the right size.

Once we just had a telephone on our desks.

Then we added a computer mainframe terminal,

but replaced that with a personal computer …

… which became portable (laptop), …

… we added wireless networking including voice,

but we shrunk them a little too much …

outline1
Outline

Changes and Discontinuities

Where Should Intelligence Reside?

SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”

Some Thoughts on the Future

intelligence was centralized but is it in the right place
Intelligence was centralized, but is it in the right place?
  • We began with human operators “inside the network” handling switching and services for “hard-wired” subscribers, …
  • ... “progressed” to analog mechanical circuit switching (SxS), ...
  • ... refined it with stored program control (#5 XBar, SP1), ...
we continued with the assumption that terminals were dumb
We continued with the assumption that terminals were “dumb” …
  • We converted from analog to digital transmission and switching.
  • We centralized network intelligence into with replicated islands of intelligence enabled by common channel signalling.
but isdn and mobility changed everything
… but ISDN and Mobilitychanged everything!
  • Suddenly terminals had to be able to do a great deal more:
    • A functional ISDN terminal is a de facto 2 line exchange!
  • Cellular networks added a new dimension to what terminals had to do:
    • Mobility!
evolution
Evolution!

“Bell-heads”

“Net-heads”

  • We’ve gone from one extreme to the other:
    • Start: all intelligence in the network and none at the edges “dumb” terminals
    • Advances in technology enabled intelligence to migrate to terminals connected to a “dumb” network
  • Neither end of the pendulum swing is ideal …
outline2
Outline

Changes and Discontinuities

Where Should Intelligence Reside?

SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”

Some Thoughts on the Future

itu t sg 13 future networks including mobile and ngn
ITU-T SG 13 - Future Networks including Mobile and NGN
  • WP 5/13 Future Networks
    • Q.7/13 Impact of IPv6 to an NGN
    • Q.19/13 Distributed services networking (DSN)
    • Q.20/13 Public data networks
    • Q.21/13 Future networks
      • Rec. Y.3001 Future Networks: Objectives and Design goals
      • Approved May 2011
an overview 4 objectives and 12 design goals
An overview…4 Objectives and 12 Design Goals

4 Objectives

Realization

Functions appropriate to service needs

Huge volumes, widely distributed

Energy efficient, recyclable materials; displace energy intensive activities

Reduced barriers to entry, reduced life cycle costs

  • Service-awareness
  • Data-awareness
  • Environment-awareness
  • Social and economic awareness
future networks more on the 12 design goals
Future Networks – More on the 12 Design Goals
  • Service diversity
  • Functional flexibility
  • Virtualization of resources
  • Data access
  • Diverse traffic: a few bps to ≥Gbps; delay (in)tolerant; simple sensors to complex terminals
  • Agility in deploying new services
  • Efficiencies, commonalities
  • Very high capacity for consumer generated volume
future networks design goals
Future Networks – Design Goals
  • Energy consumption
  • Service universalization
  • Economic incentives
  • Network management
  • Full life cycle for equipment; lower energy technologies and conservation
  • Available to everyone
  • Competition through standards and open interfaces
  • Flexible, enough capacity, simple, self configuring
future networks design goals1
Future Networks – Design Goals
  • Mobility
  • Optimization
  • Identification
  • Reliability and Security
  • Full mobility for large scale and high speed networks
  • Optimize capacity for service requirements
  • New schema for many more devices
  • Designed-in, including user privacy
outline3
Outline

Changes and Discontinuities

Where Should Intelligence Reside?

SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”

Some Thoughts on the Future

advances
Advances
  • 1889 to 1950
    • Automobile
    • Refrigeration
    • Electricity
    • Telephone
  • 1950 to 2011
    • Jet plane
    • Man on the moon
    • Computer
    • Internet
  • What advances will we make between today and 2072?
some key developments
Some Key Developments
  • Computing technology advances enable more powerful, faster computers
  • Today’s personal computer is yesterday’s super computer
  • Technology applied in handsets: as powerful as desktop PCs a few years ago
irreversible changes
Irreversible Changes

Enterprise-Driven

Hardware-Centric

Wireline

People to Machines

Peripheral Security

Proprietary Interfaces

Consumer-Driven

Software-Centric

Wireless

Machine to Machine

Embedded

Open (incl. Policy)

Trusted

Change is constant: adapt and adopt!

megatrends
Megatrends

Wired

Applications

  • Mega trends aredefining a new era:
    • Hyper-connectivity
    • Network-awareapplications andapplications-awarenetworks
    • True Broadband
  • Technology is all about enabling users to do what they want to do!

Enterprise

Carrier

Infrastructure

Wireless

The world is rapidly becoming Hyperconnected!

hyperconnectivity
Hyperconnectivity

Anything that can be usefully connected will be connected

communications enabled applications
Communications-Enabled Applications
  • Reinvention of services and applications to support new levels of network-aware intelligence and an intuitive interaction experience
    • Achieve through advanced technology frameworks such as IMS and Services Oriented Architecture (SOA)
true broadband
True Broadband
  • The communications experience is so seamless that users no longer have to consider which technology is being used to make a connection.
  • Users simply communicate, anywhere, anytime from whichever device is most convenient. Most importantly, the broadband experience becomes so economical that the range of uses exceeds any experience of the past.
three phases of m2m services
Three Phases of M2M Services

From T. Norp (TNO/KPN) presentation at ETSI M2M Workshop, 19-20 Oct 2010

machine type communications
Machine Type Communications

From S1-112284: 3GPP TR 22.801 V0.3.0 (2011-08)

www.3gpp.org/ftp/tsg_sa/WG1_Serv/TSGS1_55_Dublin/Docs/S1-112284.zip

“The Internet of Things” (2005)

Disproportionate impact of data applications

when engineering meets medicine
When Engineering Meets Medicine

UBC Engineering Faculty publication, “Ingenuity”, Spring/Summer 2011 (not yet posted)

hwww.engineering.ubc.ca/news-events/newsletters/

Article is also available from the UBC Faculty of Medicine web site:

www.med.ubc.ca/media/med_mag/Spring_2011/When_engineering_meets_medicine.htm

An example of a new data application on a smart phone

advances1
Advances
  • 1950 to 2011
    • Jet plane
    • Man on the moon
    • Computer
    • Internet
  • 2011 to 2072
    • Ubiquitous broadband
    • Hyperconnectivity
    • Internet of Things
    • Robotics
in closing some quotations
In Closing: Some Quotations
  • “We always over-estimate the change that will occur in the next two years, and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten years.” *
  • “When you get to a fork in the road, take it!” **
  • “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” ***

* Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation

** Yogi Berra, American baseball player

*** Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist

slide37

Thank you for your attention!

John Visser, CD, P.Eng.

+1 613 276 6096

jvisser@rogers.com