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From Cold War to Hot War: Climate Change and Conflict in the 21 st Century

From Cold War to Hot War: Climate Change and Conflict in the 21 st Century. Jim Lee American University March 2007. Climate Change Will do More than Raise the Temperature. I. The Environmental Century A. The Linkages between Climate Change and Conflict

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From Cold War to Hot War: Climate Change and Conflict in the 21 st Century

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  1. From Cold War to Hot War: Climate Change and Conflict in the 21st Century Jim Lee American University March 2007

  2. Climate Change Will do More than Raise the Temperature I. The Environmental Century A. The Linkages between Climate Change and Conflict B. Forecasts of Climate in the 21st Century C. Trends in Conflict

  3. Linkages: The Problem of Climate Change and Conflict • Displacement: Large scale migrations • Abundance: New resources become available • Scarcity: Greater Demands and Declining Yields • Sovereignty: New lands and seaways

  4. Climate Change in History and Conflict • The End of the Ice Age (30-40,000 BC) Neanderthal Wars and Growing Deserts • The Medieval Climate Optimum (500-1000 AD) Recovering from the Dark Ages and the New World • The Little Ice Age (1300-1850) Retreat and Advance, Extreme Events • The Modern Warming (1900-today)

  5. Climate Change and Conflict Dynamics

  6. Temperature from 400 BC until Today

  7. IPCC Forecasts The research will rely on forecasts to create a climate baseline scenario for the 21st century. The scenario will primarily use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts.http://www.ipcc.ch/

  8. Forecasts for Conflict Indicators • These forecasts center on two dimensions. First, there is the geography of the forecast. Second, there are the impacts. The impacts focus on four types: • (1) precipitation and temperature, • (2) arable land, • (3) forests, and • (4) fresh water.

  9. IPCC 2006 Scenarios

  10. IPCC Forecasts • Scenarios • Note Range • Has adjustments

  11. Trends in Climate

  12. Regional IPCC Forecasts

  13. Precipitation Forecasts

  14. New and Old Tension Belts

  15. Trends in Conflict Behavior • Growth in Destructiveness of Weapons • More Ability to Use Environment as a Weapon • Livelihood Conflicts • A Focus on Civilian Casualties and Environment Destruction • More Civil than International Wars

  16. Thinking About Conflict and Environment II. Climate Change and Conflict in History A. The Equatorial Tension Belt B. Historical Cases of Climate Change and Conflict 1. Temperature: The Vikings and North America 2. Arable Land: The Shifting Sahel 3. Forests: The Cedars of Lebanon 4. Water: Controlling the Nile in Antiquity

  17. The Path is Partially Determined • III. Future Climate Changes and Possible Conflict Outcomes • A. The Polar Tension Belt • B. Future Cases of Climate Change and Conflict • 1. Temperature: The Dispute over Canada’s Northwest Passage • 2. Arable Land: The Long-Term Drought in Southern Africa • 3. Forests: The Decline in the Northern Amazon • 4. Water: Critical Shortages in Central Asia

  18. Problem and Solution Types • A preventative approach would attempt to curtail the structural roots for the conflict before they erupt. • A mitigating approach would attempt to contain or reduce violence that has broken out. • An uncoupling approach would have a greater focus on the trigger for conflict that lets loose accumulated stress built on structural forces.

  19. The Path Forward IV. These Conflicts are Not Inevitable • A. Temperature: Controlling Greenhouse Gases • B. Arable Land: Rethinking Agriculture • C. Forests: National and Global Parks • D. Water: Project Desalinization

  20. V. The Social Dimensions of Climate Change and Equity • Winners and Losers, Rich and Poor • Terra-forming the Planet • Inter-generational Issues

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