Proposed TPC Support for NAME

1. NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION Proposed TPC Support for NAME April 22, 2004 Jack Beven TPC/NHC WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

2. Some TC Climatology

3. Some TC Climatology

4. Possible Useful TPC Productsfor NAME • Tropical Weather Discussion (4 times/day) • Tropical Weather Outlook (4 times/day) • Tropical Cyclone Discussion (4 times/day on active cyclones) • Time Sections • Hovmüller Diagrams • Danger Area graphics

5. Tropical Weather Discussion • Describes analyzed features of the surface weather analysis • Gives satellite imagery interpretation

6. Tropical Weather Discussion TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON APR 19 2004 EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO THE EQUATOR...EAST OF 140W. SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS 19/1200 UTC... ...1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N127W IS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 24N115W. INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 19/1515 UTC... AXIS OF ITCZ RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 6N88W 4N100W 5N120W 9N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W-99W...BETWEEN 118W-120W...AND BETWEEN 122W-126W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 6N137W. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 32N... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 24N129W-18N135W TO BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF TROUGH AXIS OVER AREA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 126W-130W...AND FROM 13N-14.5N BETWEEN 130W-132W. ELSEWHERE E OF TROUGH AXIS...NEARLY SOLID AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXTENDS AS FAR E AS 123W AND S TO 11N. CLOUDINESS BECOMES LESS EXTENSIVE E OF 123W TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECASTER MOLLEDA

7. Tropical Weather Outlook • Describes existing areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development

8. Tropical Weather Outlook TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2003 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST MAINLY BETWEEN ZIHUATANEJO AND MANZANILLO. A SMALL AND WEAK CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED ABOUT 1300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA

9. Tropical Cyclone Discussion • Meteorological synopsis of a tropical cyclone • Reasoning behind the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii

10. Tropical Cyclone Discussion TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003 CARLOS TRIED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MADE LANDFALL. SSM/I OVERPASSES AT 0220Z AND 0321Z INDICATED THAT A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAD FORMED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...WITH THE LATTER OVERPASS SHOWING THE EYE CROSSING THE MEXICAN COAST. BASED ON THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AT THAT TIME...WHICH INCLUDED AN OCCASIONAL WARM SPOT...IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 55 KT. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DECAYED AS THE CENTER HAS EDGED INLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD DEFLECT CARLOS MORE TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY NHC TRACK GUIDANCE. OF COURSE...ALL OF THESE THINGS WERE SEEN LAST NIGHT AND CARLOS WOUND UP MOVING NORTHWARD. GIVEN THAT CAVEAT... THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HR...WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST INLAND THROUGH 72 HR...THEN HAVE IT EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES BY 96 HR.

11. Tropical Cyclone Discussion THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOS TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION YET SURVIVE OVER LAND FOR 72 HR. EVEN IF THE STORM STAYS AS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS FORECAST THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER BACK TO THE PACIFIC AND ALLOW CARLOS TO EITHER STRENGTHEN OR WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...AND THAT EVEN IF CARLOS SURVIVES THE WATERS WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES ARE TOO COLD TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAINS WITH ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL CARLOS EITHER MOVES OUT OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 16.4N 97.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.8N 98.6W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 28/0600Z 17.2N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 100.6W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 02/0600Z 21.0N 109.0W 25 KT

12. Time Sections www.nhc.noaa.gov/index_station.shtml

13. Hovmüller Diagrams www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gwhov1.gif www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/gehov3.gif

14. TAFB Danger Area Graphics Existing cyclones Possible development

15. Coordination Calls • Can discuss ongoing cyclones, potential for tropical cyclogenesis, and other significant issues • Recommended to be held after TPC finishes the morning advisory cycle and visible imagery is available