World Energy Outlook

1. World Energy Outlook 2012 International Energy Agency

2. IEA • Working together to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy • http://www.iea.org/ • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nVsI8XFFcE • Youtube can be useful • http://www.ted.com/

3. Member Countries • Australia • Austria • Belgium • Canada • Czech Republic • Denmark • European Union • Finland • France • Germany • Greece • Hungary • Ireland • Italy • Japan • Luxembourg • The Netherlands • New Zealand • Norway • Poland • Portugal • Republic of Korea • Slovak Republic • Spain • Sweden • Switzerland • Turkey • United Kingdom • United States

4. The Data • http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/PresentationtoPress.pdf

5. WEO 2012 • More prescriptive • Less descriptive

6. Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America – and the energy sector. • Light “tight” oil • Shale gas • 2020 Largest producer of oil • 2030 Net exporter

7. Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path. • Despite the growth in low carbon sources of energy, fossil fuels remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that amounted to $523 billion in 2011, up almost 30% on 2010 and six times more than subsidies to renewables. • Emissions in the New Policies (Reference) Scenario correspond to a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 °C.

8. Our Efficient World (Alternative) Scenario shows how tackling the barriers to energy efficiency investment can unleash this potential and realise huge gains for energy security, economic growth and the environment • taking actions to remove the barriers obstructing the implementation of energy efficiency measures that are economically viable.

9. It is too hard and too expensive • The accrued resources would facilitate a gradual reorientation of the global economy, boosting cumulative economic output to 2035 by $18 trillion, with the biggest gross domestic product (GDP) gains in India, China, the United States and Europe. • Universal access to modern energy would be easier to achieve and air quality improved, as emissions of local pollutants fall sharply. • Energy related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions would peak before 2020, with a decline thereafter consistent with a long-term temperature increase of 3 °C.

10. We propose policy principles that can turn the Efficient World Scenario into reality. • Energy efficiency needs to be made clearly visible, by strengthening the measurement and disclosure of its economic gains. The profile of energy efficiency needs to be raised, so that efficiency concerns are integrated into decision making throughout government, industry and society. • By deploying a mix of regulations to discourage the least-efficient approaches and incentives to deploy the most efficient, governments can help push energy-efficient technologies into the mainstream.

11. These categories include: • Increasing the visibility of energy efficiency through strengthening its measurement and disclosing its gains • Prioritising efficiency by integrating it into the decision‐making process in government, industry and society • Increasing its affordability by creating appropriate business models and financing instruments • Making efficiency mainstream by incentivising the most efficient technology options and discouraging the least efficient ones • Making it real by implementing monitoring, verification and enforcement activities • Making it realisable by increasing governance and administrative capacity at all levels. Knowing, Organizing and Doing Prices

12. Can we Do it Smarter and Better? • Growth in global primary energy demand is halved in the Efficient World (Alternative) Scenario, relative to the New Policies (Reference)Scenario, and energy intensity improves at 2.6 times the rate of the last 25 years. • In the Efficient World Scenario, energy‐related CO2 emissions peak before 2020 and decline to 30.5 Gt in 2035, pointing to a long‐term average temperature increase of 3 °C. • Despite progress, nearly 1.3 billion people remain without access to electricity and 2.6 billion do not have access to clean cooking facilities. • In the Efficient World Scenario, emissions of local pollutants are also cut sharply, bringing environmental and health benefits to China and India in particular.

13. H2O Nexus • Water is essential to the production of energy, and the energy sector already accounts for 15% of the world’s total water use. Its needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects. In some regions, water constraints are already affecting the reliability of existing operations and they will introduce additional costs. Expanding power generation and biofuels output underpin an 85% increase in the amount consumed (the volume of water that is not returned to its source after use) through to 2035.

14. Team 1 Research Ideas • Economic and Energy Growth in China • “Clean” Coal? • Combined Heat and Power • District Heating and Cooling • Smart Grid • Iraq Oil • Peak Oil? • Natural Gas Fracking • MPH and oil demand • Carbon Capture and Storage • Prices and energy demand elasticity • Electrification Programs • Biofuels Impact and Growth • Nuclear Growth or Decline • Directions of Trade • Economic and Energy Growth in BRICS • Mass Transit Versus Private Cars