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Dale A. Cox, Anne Wein, and Keith Porter Sept. 30, 2009 NSF RESIN PowerPoint Presentation
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Dale A. Cox, Anne Wein, and Keith Porter Sept. 30, 2009 NSF RESIN. Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. Fire / Debris Flow 2007 and Station Fire Post Fire Coordination Earthquake / Tsunami ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario and Tsunami Scenario

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Presentation Transcript
multi hazards demonstration project
Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project
  • Fire / Debris Flow
  • 2007 and Station Fire Post Fire Coordination
  • Earthquake / Tsunami
  • ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario and Tsunami Scenario
  • Community Interface, Implementation, Tools and Training, Great Southern California ShakeOut
  • Winter Storm
  • ARkStorm Scenario
building a winter storm scenario
Building a Winter Storm Scenario

EconomicImpacts

SocialImpacts

Infra-structure

Emergencyresponse

Flood

Management

Floods, Coastal Erosion,

Landslides, Environmental

Structures

Lifelines

The Storm

Casualties

POLICY

Social Sciences

Earth Science

Engineering

Forecasting

the arkstorm team
The ARkStorm Team
  • Atmospherics: Marty Ralph, NOAA Research/ESRL/PSD
  • Atmospherics: Mike Dettinger, USGS Scripps
  • Floods: Bill Croyle, DWR Flood Operations Center
  • Floods: Justin Ferris, USGS California Water Science Center
  • Landslides: Chris Wills, California Geological Survey
  • Landslides: Jon Stock, USGS Earth Surfaces Processes Team
  • Coastal: Patrick Barnard, USGS Coastal Marine Geology
  • Coastal: Dan Hooover, USGS Coastal Marine Geology
  • Physical Damages: Keith Porter, University of Colorado
  • Environmental: Geoff Plumlee, USGS Minerals Program
  • Environmental: Charles Alpers, USGS California Water Science Center
  • Emergency Response: Mitch Miller, CalEMA
  • Policy: Ken Topping, California State Polytechnic, San Luis Obispo
  • Economics: Anne Wein, USGS Western Geographic Team
  • Economics: Adam Rose, University of Southern California
road closures over time and average trip time increase
Road closures over time and % average trip time increase

3 days

21%

12 days

17%

13-49 days

12%

50-140 days

8%

san pedro port operation
San Pedro Port Operation

Cranes use

power off the

grid

Cannot

Separate

Regional Goods

  • Ships wait
  • Few divert
  • Months to
  • clear the
  • back log

Port has

1 week

Storage

commuting
Commuting

Total commuters out of PS: 8084

850 commuters to unincorporated

-758 within Riverside county

Total commuters into PS: 18051

3888 commuters from unincorporated

9290 live and work in Palm Springs

Majority commute to and from Coachella Valley and Riverside

Commuters to and from Kern and San Diego counties ignored

Source: SCAG commute data based on 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package

utility service outage and restoration high impact county
Utility Service Outage and RestorationHigh Impact County

% customers with service

Telecom: up to 4 days, but congestion and delays

Power: up to 1-4 months, Gas: up to 2 months, Water: up to 6 months

Power,Water Telecommunications Water,Power,Gas,Transportation

exposure employment located in mmi9
Exposure: % employment located in MMI9+

EDD 2006 4th quarter data,

Ben Sherrouse &

David Hester (USGS)

Exposure Analysis

shakeout economic costs and impacts

ShakeOut Economic Costs and Impacts

  • Damage to Structures and Contents ($112.7b)
    • Fire is biggest cause
  • Business Interruption ($96.2b)
    • Water is biggest shock
  • Additional Costs
    • Relocation ($0.1b)
    • Traffic Delay ($4.3b)
disaster recovery
Disaster Recovery
  • Phases (restoration, temporary, permanent)
  • Tasks, subtasks, and interdependencies
  • Time (pressure to return to normalcy vs. betterment)
housing and social recovery
Housing and Social Recovery

region

SEVERE RESIDENTIAL

DAMAGE

category 4
Category 4

CAT 4 is > 40 cm (~16 inches) in 3 days

economics of a natural disaster
Economics of a Natural Disaster

Stabilized activity

Projected

activity

‘Disaster’

(a few yrs.)

‘Catastrophe’

(decades)

Economic

Activity

Impacted

economic

activity

Time

MITIGATION

Physical damage replacement

Emergency Response

Cumulative

Losses/costs

$s

EMERGENCY

RESPONSE

PREPAREDNESS

Recovery

Business interruption

RESILIENCE

results

Bridge DamageZones

RESULTS

Zones show estimated locations of severely damaged bridges (roadway closures ≈ 5-7 months)

Roadways crossing the fault will be severely damaged (roadway closures ≈ 2 months or more)

Landslide and liquefaction damage to pavement

Zone 4

Palmdale

San Andreas Fault

San Bernadino

Zone 3

Zone 2

Baldwin Park

Zone 1

Riverside

Palm Springs

Long Beach

Corona

Indio

Zone 5

San Juan Capistrano