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Human Induced Climate Change

Human Induced Climate Change. Brief visit of the global Carbon Cycle IPCC (Intergovermental Panel for Climate Change). Global Carbon Cycle. Ocean is the largest reservoir Ocean has very large exchange with atmosphere Missing 2 GT of C. IPCC Website. http://www.ipcc.ch.

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Human Induced Climate Change

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  1. Human Induced Climate Change • Brief visit of the global Carbon Cycle • IPCC (Intergovermental Panel for Climate Change)

  2. Global Carbon Cycle • Ocean is the largest reservoir • Ocean has very large exchange with atmosphere • Missing 2 GT of C

  3. IPCC Website http://www.ipcc.ch

  4. Structure of IPCC 1997 - 2001 United Nations UNEP COP/FCCC WMO World Climate Programme IGBP Global Climate Observing system etc Subsidiary bodies of the framework convention on climate change IPCC IPCC Bureau WGII Impacts and adaptation WGI Science WGIII Mitigation Lead Authors, Contributors, Reviewers

  5. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific BasisWGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Drafted by a team of 59 Approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists) 14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515 Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted

  6. IPCC Synthesis ReportPart I • Overview • How to address the issue of “dangerous anthropogenic perturbation” to the climate system • The relationship between climate change and development, equity and sustainability Robert Watson

  7. Mother Earth -- Our Home It is has water, oxygen and a hospitable climate

  8. World Population 6,056,528,577 The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

  9. The Challenge: Sustainable Energy

  10. The Challenge: Food Security

  11. Food production needs to double to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30 years Climate change is projected to decrease agricultural productivity in the tropics and sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming

  12. The Challenge: Sustainable Forestry

  13. Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population Wood demand will double in next 50 years Climate change is projected to increase forest productivity, but forest management will become more difficult, due to an increase in pests and fires

  14. The Challenge: Water Security

  15. Climate change is projected to decrease water availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions Water Services One third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity Population facing water scarcity will more than double over the next 30 years

  16. The Challenge: Sustainable Fisheries

  17. The Challenge: Sustainable use & conservation of biodiversity

  18. Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species could become extinct over the next 30 years Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and services Climate change will exacerbate the loss of biodiversity

  19. Agricultural Lands Coastal Zones Forest Lands Freshwater Systems Arid Lands & Grasslands Food and Fiber Production Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water Maintenance of Biodiversity Maintenance of Human Health Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to provide a range of essential ecological goods and services

  20. The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

  21. Key Findings • Climate change is not just an environmental issue, but a development issue • Global and regional changes have been observed in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, earth's surface temperature, precipitation, extreme climatic events, sea level • These have caused changes in biological, physical and socio-economic systems • Most of the observed warming of the past 50 years is attributable to human activities Questions 1 & 2

  22. Key Findings • Future changes in atmospheric composition and climate are inevitable with increases in temperature and some extreme events, and regional increases and decreases in precipitation, leading to an increased risks of floods and droughts • There are both beneficial and adverse effects of climate change, but the larger the changes and rate of change in climate, the more the adverse effects predominate with developing countries being the most vulnerable Question 3

  23. Key Findings • Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change, but will not prevent all damages • Inertia is a widespread characteristic of the interacting climate, ecological and socio-economic systems which means that the impacts may not be observed for decades to centuries and mal-adaptations may be implemented Questions 3 & 5

  24. Key Findings • Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century can set in motion large-scale, high-impact, non-linear, and potentially abrupt changes in physical and biological systems over the coming decades to millennia • Sustained warming of a few oC over millennia is projected to lead to an increase in sea level of several meters due to loss of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Question 4

  25. Key Findings • Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will require global emissions to decline to only a small fraction of current emissions -- even after stabilization of CO2 concentrations, sea level will continue to rise for millennia • Stabilization of carbon dioxide at 450ppm and 1000ppm would result in an equilibrium temperature rise of 0.9 to 2.5oC and 2.9 to 7.5oC above 1990 levels, respectively. Increases in non-CO2 concentrations would increase these estimates • The lower the level of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations the greater the benefits in terms of avoided damages Question 6

  26. Key Findings • There are many opportunities, including technological options, to reduce near-term emissions, but barriers to their deployment exist, and cost estimates vary greatly • There are substantial opportunities for lowering mitigation costs, e.g. by using all greenhouse gases, the Kyoto trading mechanisms and sinks • On the other hand, costs are under-estimated because models assume emissions trading without transaction costs and that economies have already begun to adjust to meet Kyoto targets Question 7

  27. Key Findings • Emissions constraints on Annex I countries have well-established “spill-over” effects on non-Annex I countries • Technology development and diffusion are important components of cost-effective stabilization • The pathway to stabilization and the stabilization level itself are key determinants of mitigation costs Question 7

  28. Key Findings • Local, regional and global environmental issues are inextricably linked and affect sustainable development – climate change, loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, desertification, freshwater availability and air quality are all inter-linked • The primary factors underlying most environmental and socio-economic issues are similar, i.e., economic growth, broad technological changes, life-style patterns and demographic shifts Question 8

  29. Key Findings • There are synergistic opportunities to simultaneously address these issues that enhance benefits, reduce costs and more sustainably meet human needs • The capacity of a country to adapt or mitigate can be enhanced when climate policies are integrated into national development policies – economic, social and environmental Question 8

  30. What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System? • Deciding what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference to the climate system” is a value judgment determined through socio-political processes informed by scientific, technical and socio-economic information • The basis for determining what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference” varies by region and sector and depends upon: • the impacts of climate change, which depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and • adaptive and mitigative capacity

  31. What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System…. • Climate change decision-making is a sequential process under general uncertainty • Climate change is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development

  32. Climate Change – An integrated framework

  33. Change Presentation…..

  34. IPCC Synthesis ReportPart IV Costs of mitigation measures Jayant Sathaye

  35. Technologies and policies exist to reduce short-term (2010-2020) GHG emissions • Significant technical progress has been made in the last 5 years and at a faster rate than expected (wind turbines, elimination of industrial by-products, hybrid engine cars, fuel cell technology, underground carbon dioxide storage)

  36. Solar Wind Biomass Natural gas Combined Cycle Advanced Coal Cost of new technologies have declined steeply, but costs of conventional technologies have also declined at a slower rate 10 1 Production costs (EURO1990/kWh) 0.1 0.01 100 10000 1000000 Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW) Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source: IEA

  37. Mitigation potential -- 2020 (Cost Range: Negative to $100/t C)

  38. Realizing this potential requires overcoming many barriers • Barriers add to the cost of implementation, and reduce the realizable potential • Removal of barriers during capital stock turnover and periods of rapid social change can minimize disruption and mitigation costs

  39. The cost of compliance increases with lower stabilization levels Trillions of US$

  40. Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the assumed emissions baseline

  41. IPCC Synthesis ReportPart V • Summary and relationship to other environmental issues Robert Watson

  42. Agricultural practices are affecting the environment and environmental degradation threatens food availability

  43. Climate change and other environmental issues are inter-linked

  44. Underlying causes of change • The primary factors underlying environmental degradation include: economic growth, broad technological changes, demographic shifts and governance structures. These can give rise to: • Increased demand for natural resources and energy • Market imperfections, e.g., subsidies that lead to the inefficient use of resources and act as a barrier to the market penetration of climate sound technologies; the lack of recognition of the true value of natural resources; failure to appropriate the global values of natural resources to the local level; and the failure to internalize the social costs of environmental degradation into the market price of a resource • Limited availability and transfer of technology, inefficient use of technologies, and inadequate investment in research and development for the technologies of the future • Failure to manage adequately the use of natural resources and energy

  45. Climate Change is an Integral Element of Sustainable Development

  46. The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

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