Advantage Business Group

1. Advantage Business Group ‘The Barbican’, East Street, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7TB 01252 738500 www.Advantage-Business.co.uk

2. Combining Cognitive Maps with other OR methods to support Decision-Makers ISMOR 21, September 2004 Colin Drysdale

3. Presentation Outline Introduction • Home Office – Crime Reduction Model • MOD, Dstl – C3I system Benefits Model • (Command Control Communications & Intelligence) Final Discussion

4. Introduction

5. Decision making – common themes • Governmental decision makers • Account rationally for decisions • Possibility of some form of ‘public’ scrutiny

6. Case Study 1Home Office – Crime Reduction Model

7. Home Office – Crime Reduction Model • Responsibilities include reducing the level of crime in England and Wales • Culture change • ‘evidence based policy making’ • Justification

8. Spending Review 2004 • Knowledge existed across a number of groups • Some of this was locked in experts’ minds • Seemed like a job for SODA cognitive mapping • (Strategic Options Development and Analysis )

9. Cognitive Mapping - Justification

10. Intervention Goal Intermediate step Cognitive Map - Concepts Example List

11. Cognitive Map - Links Causal Negative Causal Weak Link - Logical AND Possible Link & & Connotative Correlation

12. Intervention Intervention Goal Cognitive Map - Constructs

13. Intervention Intervention Goal Constructs Argument

14. Intervention Intervention Goal Memo Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box Constructs Argument Evidence

15. Intervention Intervention Goal Memo Evidence summary and URL link to supporting Documentation in a pop-up box Constructs Argument + Evidence = Case

16. Approach • ~30 Interviews • Generated initial maps • interviewees invited to discuss: • causes of crime • policy goals • interventions • … • evidence sources / quality • Synthesis • To a single map (~2400 - 1800 concepts)

17. Initial benefits • Knowledge model • Single resource • Linked to exiting documents • Shows where more research & analysis is required

18. Next issue • Interventions that should be funded ? • Defines the “Problem” • Time stepped simulation

19. Further insights • Exploit causal pathways • Interventions to goals • ~1800 concepts • MS Excel with VBA tool developed • Enabled analysis of • Contradicting interventions • Loops in the causal logic • Completely dependent interventions

20. Dependent interventions

21. Findings • Many logical anomalies • different interpretations of “intervention” • Showed that • more clarity needed • for quantitative modelling

22. Case Study 1 – Further benefits • Cognitive modelling helped define ‘the problem’ and requirements for more quantitative modelling • In this role SODA cognitive mapping should not be viewed ‘soft’ OR • it enables a ‘soft-to-harder’ transition

23. ‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies objective Hard Soft subjective qualitative quantitative

24. ‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies objective Hard Soft subjective qualitative quantitative

25. ‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies objective Hard Soft subjective qualitative quantitative

26. ‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies objective Hard Soft subjective qualitative quantitative

27. ‘soft-to-harder’ methodologies objective Hard tacit Soft subjective explicit qualitative quantitative

28. Case Study 2MOD - C3I system Benefits Modelling

29. Benefits Modelling • Dstl name • Causal mapping & MCDA • C3I systems

30. The Task • Aim - Develop a C3I system benefits model • Purpose – support contractor down-select & OR programme definition • Implementation – constrained to perform calculations in Excel with VBA for ease of maintenance in-house

31. The concept • SODA COGNITIVE maps contain CAUSAL logic • and additional information • MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated ….

32. MCDA nets for C3I get complicated Investments (SRD / ADD Level) Investments (URD Level) System Attributes Organisational Attributes Military capabilities Value System

33. The concept • SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic • and additional information • MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated • Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool

34. The concept • SODA cognitive maps contain causal logic • and additional information • MCDA networks for modelling C3I can get complicated • Can’t use a Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) MCDA tool • Why not use the cognitive map as the front end to an Excel with VBA MCDA model

35. What happened • Workshop - “false start” ! • Unavoidable part of the problem exploration process • How to recover • Stay calm • Needs skill and experience

36. Recovery • Method was unfamiliar but …. • Resembled familiar information flows • Solution was to exploit familiar information flows • Converted these “off-line” • High level structure

37. Benefits Modelling MCDA objective Hard causal mapping Soft subjective MCDA qualitative quantitative

38. Final Discussion

39. Final Discussion • Take-up of Soft OR techniques has not been universal • Combining cognitive mapping with other techniques • quantified logical case • pass independent scrutiny • Both studies illustrate that cognitive mapping supports problem formulation • The second study illustrates that cognitive mapping requires skill & experience

40. References / Reading • Description of the SODA technique see: “Rational Analysis for a Problematic World”, Ed. J Rosenhead, Chapter 2, John Wiley & Sons, 1989. • “Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis – Practically the only way to choose”, V Belton, OR 32, Sep 1990, Published in “Operational Research Tutorial Papers: 1990” • “Benefits Analysis – A Robust Assessment Approach”, G Mathieson, Dstl, 2002, Unclassified.