ROAD TO DOHA

1. Kyoto and Beyond ROADTODOHA The 10thinstallment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change www.isciences.com November 16, 2012

2. Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992. Introduction • Road to Dohais a summary of preparations for COP18, the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar. Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*: • 2008 Kyoto and Beyond • 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update • 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15 • 2010 Road to Cancun COP16 • 2011 Report on Cancun COP16 • 2011 Road to Durban COP17 • 2012 Report on Durban COP17 • 2012 Road to Rio+20 • 2012 Report on Rio+20 * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

3. Historical Background Contents • Conference Overview • Multilateral Process • Issues & Positions • Possible Outcomes This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

4. 1997 Kyoto Protocol adopted 2007 IPCC 4th Assessment Report 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 2001 IPCC 3rd Assessment Report 2010 Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16 Background: Timeline 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 1990 IPCC 1st Assessment Report released 1995 IPCC 2nd Assessment Report 2009 Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 2011 Durban Platform adopted at COP17 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 1999 Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sept. 2011 (Image Credit: NASA) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

5. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international climate treaty whose objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. Background: UNFCCC, 1992 The treaty was drafted at the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the “Earth Summit”) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1992. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) Called a “framework convention,” it is a starting point. Though it sets no mandatory GHG limits or enforcement mechanisms, it provides for updates (“protocols“) to do so. The UNFCCC entered into force in 1994 and convenes an annual “Conference of the Parties”(COP) for its 195 members to assess progress. “The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments …is to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.” – Article 2, UNFCCC 1992 Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

6. The Convention divides countries into three groups according to differing commitments. Background: UNFCCC, Annex Parties Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia European Union Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Monaco Netherlands New Zeeland Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom United States • Annex I Parties: developed countries required to reduce emissions. Industrialized countries who were members of the OECD* in 1992, plus countries with economies in transition (EIT). • Annex II Parties: developed countries required to provide financial resourcesand technology transfer to developing countries and to EIT countries for emissions reductions. Includes Annex I, but not EIT countries. • Non-Annex I Parties: developing countries. The Convention also recognizes the needs of certain groups of developing countries who are especially vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change and to economic impacts of climate change response measures. ANNEX I COUNTRIES Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC) * Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

7. The UNFCCC’s COP3 produced the Kyoto Protocol (KP), a legally binding addition that assigns national limits for GHG emissions. Background: COP3 Kyoto, 1997 • The KP regulates six GHGs: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). • Annex I countries agreed to reduce emissions an average of 5% below 1990; Non-Annex countries are not bound; targets vary by country. International aviation and shipping are exempt. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) • The UNFCCC created national inventories of emissions/removals to establish 1990 benchmarks. To assess progress Annex I countries provide regular inventory updates. • The KP is binding but with no severe penalty for noncompliance. It opened for signatures in 1997, entered into force in 2005, has 193 Parties; 1st commitment period is 2008-2012. The US did not ratify the KP, China and India (Non-Annex nations with high emissions) are not bound by it, Canada has withdrawn, and Russia and Japan may not commit beyond 2012. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

8. Recent COPs have not engendered confidence in the ability of the multilateral process to improve the global emissions pathway in time or at scale. Background: COPs 15 & 16 COP15 Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009 failed to establish a new agreement to follow the KP, whose 1st commitment period expires Dec. 31, 2012. Through a last minute, non-conference effort The Copenhagen Accord – unofficial, non-binding and voluntary – was drafted, establishing a 2C target for capping global temperature increase. COP16 Cancun, Mexico, 2010 also failed to resolve the future of the KP. Still, the Cancun Agreements included work on: Green Climate Fund; REDD+; Measurement, Reporting, and Verification; Incorporation of the Copenhagen Accord; & Adaptation Framework. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

9. COP17 in Durban, South Africa proposed a 2nd KP period and broke new ground by creating a roadmap for a post-KP treaty that will require commitments from both developed and developing nations. Background: A Milestone in 2011? “Also decides to launch a process to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties …” – Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, 2011 The Durban Platform reinterpreted the UNFCC’s “common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) principle by emphasizing common responsibilities. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) “The Parties should protect the climate system …on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.” – UNFCCC Article 3, Paragraph 1, 1992 This change may encourage influential US engagement by requiring commitments from previously exempt nations whose emissions are substantial, such as China and India. However, the thorny details of this new leveling must be advanced in Doha, and the issues of respective capabilities and historical responsibility remain divisive. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

10. COP18 will be held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar. Overview: COP18 Doha 2012 The 2012 meeting is the 18th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The Conference will be hosted by Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, President-Designate of COP18/CMP8* and Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. Al-Attiyah is Director of Qatar’s Administrative Control and Transparency Authority. More than 17,000 people are expected, representing 195 nations and more than 5,000 observer organizations. * Following the procedural rules of the UNFCCC, the office of COP President and host country rotates among the 5 UN regional groups. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

11. COP18’s primary objectives are to finalize the extended KP, close the LCA, and create an all-inclusive new treaty from the directive of the Durban Platform. Overview: COP18 Objectives • Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and rules. • Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the AWG-LCA (Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action) under the Bali Action Plan* and retire the LCA in Doha. • Create a new treaty. Translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets. * More about the Bali Action Plan http://unfccc.int/meetings/bali_dec_2007/meeting/6319.php Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

12. Hosting a climate conference in the heart of the oil-producing Gulf will test Qatar’s leadership and commitment to the issues. Overview: Qatar’s Leadership Qatar has the highest per-capita CO2 emissions in the world*, almost double the next-highest (Kuwait), and three times the US. COP18 President al-Attiyah has been prominent in Qatar’s energy industry for 30 years and served as Chairman of Qatar Petroleum, the state-owned company which operates all of Qatar’s oil and gas activities. (Image Credit: Courtesy of State of Qatar, http://www.cop18.qa) QATAR FACTS** Abdullah bin Hamadal-Attiyah, President COP 18 (Image Credit: UNFCCC) • 2nd highest per-capita income country, lowest unemployment • oil/gas 50% of GDP, 85% of export earnings, 70% of government revenues • oil reserves of 25 billion, enabling output for 57 years • natural gas reserves of 25 trillion cubic meters, 3rd largest & 13% of world total Qatar could improve its climate leadership by making a mitigation pledge and persuading other Arab nations to pledge. * World Bank **World Factbook 2012 Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

13. The wealthy nation of Qatar is not lacking in resources to comfortably host COP18. Overview: Qatar’s Readiness The Conference venue is Qatar National Convention Centre (QNCC), a gold LEED-certified project whose facade was inspired by the Sidra tree, a traditional Qatari meeting place for scholars and poets. (Image Credit: Qatar National Convention Centre) To raise environmental awareness mosques will host lectures on the environment, energy, and climate change. • QNCC FACTS • 3 levels • 40,000 square meters of exhibition space • 2,300 seat theatre • three other auditoriums • 57 meeting rooms • green technologies for water saving, energy efficiency, indoor environment quality, solar panels (Image Credit: Qatar Foundation) Qatar has increasingly positioned itself as a mediating force in the Middle East and has hosted global summits on economic, technological, and trade issues. These changes are part of Qatar’s stated ambition to move from a carbon economy to a knowledge economy. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

14. The UNFCCC multilateral preparatory process for COP18 involves many interconnected UN bodies and working groups. Process: UN Preparations (Image Credit: UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/bodies/items/6241.php) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

15. The May 2012 Bonn Climate Change Conference was tense and unproductive, challenged by a heavy workload and bickering over procedural issues. Process: Pre-COP Meeting, Bonn • Delegates were charged with the onerous tasks of: • ensuring a smooth transition between KP periods; • aligning remaining workflows with new directives; • interpreting the constructively ambiguous language of the Durban Platform. “If this slow pace of negotiations continues ... it poses the risk of unraveling the Durban package...We are very concerned that the spirit of cooperation that prevailed in Durban has not carried over into this session.” Christian PilgaardZinglersen, EU delegate Discussions were mired in lengthy bickering over agendas and election of officers, some unresolved until the last day. Dissention between and within negotiating blocs, as well as the formation of a new bloc, added to the unrest and reflected the changing dynamics in the 20 years since UNFCCC principles were forged. Lack of progress in Bonn necessitated an additional meeting to convene in Bangkok, presenting a financial challenge for UN resources. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

16. The informal additional session in Bangkok Aug. 30-Sept. 5, though confusing at times, ultimately eased tensions from Bonn and put negotiations on track. Process: Pre-COP Meeting, Bangkok Legal transition to a 2nd KP period* requires an amendment and ratification. Options were discussed that may enable countries to participate while awaiting ratification. Plans for resolving elements under the LCA** were divided, with developed countries contending that issues have been concluded or integrated while developing countries disagreed. UN Building, Thailand (Image Credit: United Nations Thailand) Two Durban Platform*** work streams established in Bonn were initiated in Bangkok: enhancing mitigation ambition pre-2020, and the post-2020 regime. “Universality of application,” said some, should not become “uniformity of application.” By the end of the session most parties agreed that some progress had been made on all three tracks. * AWG-KP, Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; **AWG-LCA, Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention; ***ADP, Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

17. The 12-day gathering at COP18 in Doha includes meetings of CMP, SBI, SBSTA, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, and ADP. Process: Conference Schedule SCHEDULE OF MEETINGS CMP – Conference of the Parties service as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol SBI – Subsidiary Body for Implementation SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice AWG-KP – Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol AWG-LCA – Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

18. Ensuring a smooth transition to the KP 2nd commitment period at this late date will be challenging, with many details yet to be resolved. Issues: KP2, Transition Ratification. Legal transition to a 2nd period Jan. 1, 2013 requires an amendment to the KP. Without enough time for countries to ratify, parties may be encouraged to hastily apply the amendment “provisionally,” if constitutionally possible, pending full ratification. Duration. The EU favors an 8-yr period (2013-2020) in line with their own targets for 2020. Developing countries are pushing for 5 years (2013-2017), fearing a longer period will only delay action by major emitters. Players. Australia, New Zealand, and Ukraine may join KP2. Japan and Russia have opted out. * See also Possible elements for a Doha decision adopting the Kyoto Protocol amendments Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

19. The “hot air” details of the 2nd KP period – new emissions targets and carry-over of surplus carbon credits – must also be resolved in Doha. Issues: KP2, “Hot Air” Emissions targets. The IPCC* recommends a 25-40% reduction by 2020* for developed countries. (As in KP1, developing nations make nonbinding pledges.) The EU might jump from 20% to 30%, but not alone. To increase ambition parties may be allowed to raise targets mid-way through KP2. Carbon credits. Under KP1 countries beating their target can sell excess units (AAUs**). Doha must reconcile surplus AAUs from KP1 to KP2. Credit carry-over could flood the market and suppress ambition. No carry-over could penalize achievement. Flexibility mechanisms. Eligibility rules must be set for access to mechanisms like the CDM***. Access granted if: Joined KP1? Joined KP2? All parties to UNFCCC? • IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; By 2020 – compared to 1990 levels • ** AAU–assigned amount unit • ***CDM–Clean Development Mechanism Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

20. The Durban Platform stipulates that the LCA* be retired at COP18, assuming its work is concluded or successfully transitioned. Issues: LCA The LCA advances goals established by the Bali Action Plan (2007) and encompasses over 55 agenda itemson financing; monitoring, reporting, and verifying; equity; intellectual property rights; and increasing ambition in line with science. The EU and US maintain that most issues have been resolved or can be transitioned to permanent UN subsidiary bodies, while the LDCs** and China argue that this would be a premature and ineffective dispatch. Doha must successfully resolve this impasse before negotiations can move on to productive discussion of the post-Kyoto treaty. * LCA - Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention ** LDCs – Least Developed Countries Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

21. Negotiators must begin the delicate task of defining how the Durban Platform vision of “applicable to all” will be actualized in a post-2020 treaty. Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Vision” In the new era all parties will have binding targets. The smoldering challenge is to reconcile UNFCCC’s 20-year embedded principle of CBDR* with the contemporary geopolitical reality of emissions sources. Creative phrasing is being explored that supports universal, though not uniform, application: “dynamic differentiation,” “actionable differentiation,” “graduated levels of differentiation.” (Image Credit: World Resources Institute, 2005) By framing Convention principles as “enduring but dynamic” negotiators might breathe enough flexibility into the new treaty to bind all parties while recognizing different capabilities and responsibilities. “The ADP* airplane has taken off… it may be too early to unbuckle our seatbelts because of turbulence ahead, but we are flying, and the journey has begun.” Delegate in Bangkok, 2012 • CBDR – common but differentiated responsibilities • ADP – Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

22. Parties are also charged with increasing the level of ambition to close the gap between pledged cuts and targets recommended to keep warming to 2C. Issues: 2020 Treaty, “Ambition” Raising the level of ambition prior to 2020 is critical to a meaningful outcome post-2020. "…the fact is that all of those efforts actually represent 60 percent of the global effort that needs to be made if we are to keep to a 2 degree (global temperature) rise.” – Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, 2012 • Options include: • Increasing the number of countries making pledges; • Increasing the ambition of existing pledges, and; • Recognizing supplementary actions at sub-national, national and international levels. (Image Credit: UNFCCC) Accounting and transparency must also be addressed. One study* suggests that national GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC may understate emissions by as much as 25%. • Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledge Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

23. The UNFCCC’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has called for global emissions cuts of 25%-40% by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to 2 C. Issues: Too late for 2? “To be quite candid the idea of a 2 C target is largely out of the window.” – Professor Robert Watson, former IPCC chair “The global economy now needs to cut carbon intensity by 5.1% every year from now to 2050. To give ourselves a more than 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonisation. ” – PwC, Nov. 2012 Putting the world on a low-carbon diet means reducing the annual global emissions budget to 44 Gigatonnes (GtCO2eq) by 2020 to limit warming to +2C.* “I am very worried … It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.“ – FatihBirol, International Energy Agency, 2011*** The current track projects 47.9 to 53.6 Gt.* Even if CO2 levels are stabilized, global temperature will continue to increase for decades.** The likelihood of limiting increase of global average temperature to no more than 2°C is increasingly remote. * GtCO2eq (Gigatonnes CO2 equivalents); WWF, Plugging the Gigatonne Gap. ** http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Stabilization-Targets-Final.pdf *** http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/23/733041/august-23-news-former-ipcc-chair-watson-says-2c-target-is-largely-out-of-the-window/; PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLC,. Too late for two degrees? Low carbon economy index 2012; http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/29/carbon-emissions-nuclearpower Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

24. Realistically, KP2 is shaping up to be a very rickety bridge to the proposed “superhighway” of a globally inclusive post-KP regime. Outcomes: KP2 as the Bridge • KP2’s genetic inheritance includes flaws: • too few participants; • insufficient incentives; • no ability to adapt to new conditions in which the developing world will soon overtake industrialized nations in emissions. • Still, the Protocol is a useful experiment in prescriptive mechanisms: • flexibility in domestic decision-making; • market-based policy instruments – emissions trading schemes, project-level trades among Annex I countries (Joint Implementation), and project-level offsets in developing countries used to meet obligations in Annex I countries (CDM). (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) If the KP2 bridge doesn’t collapse in Doha it will have succeeded, if only in providing passage to the new, all-inclusive regime. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

25. As always, UN climate negotiations will be influenced by economics, politics, and nature. Conclusion: Politics & Nature Lessons from KP will instruct the equity concepts and policy instruments in the post-2020 treaty, perhaps leading to progressive targets based on per capita income, and sector-based new market mechanisms. Complementary coalitions will evolve that augment UNFCCC’s multinational platform. Barack Obama’s reelection may move US energy policy in a more climate-friendly direction. And, nature will unleash its own incentives through climate-related weather events of increasing frequency and intensity. Hurricane Sandy, US East Coast, 2012 (Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Watch for ISciences’ post-Doha analysis of COP18 at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

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29. Final Thought “Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by the presence of the heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere?” Svante Arrhenius, Swedish scientist, 1896 It has been over 100 years since Arrhenius correctly answered his own question by calculating how changes in the levels of CO2 in our atmosphere could alter surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)

30. When referencing this presentation please use the following citation. Citation ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Road to Doha COP18. A slideshow; 10th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. November 16, 2012. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. Road to Doha (ISCIENCES, LLC)