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Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs

Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs. 2014 Tribal Webinar Series Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Market Update January 29, 2014 11:00 am – 12:30 PM. Today’s Presenters. Randy Manion manion@wapa.gov Pilar Thomas pilar.thomas@hq.doe.gov

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Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs

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  1. Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs 2014 Tribal Webinar Series Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Market Update January 29, 2014 11:00 am – 12:30 PM

  2. Today’s Presenters • Randy Manion manion@wapa.gov • PilarThomas pilar.thomas@hq.doe.gov • Kristen Ardani kristen.ardani@nrel.gov • RobiRobichaud robi.robichaud@nrel.gov • Randy Hunsberger randolph.hunsberger@nrel.gov • Kermit Witherbee kermit.witherbee@nrel.gov • Amy Hollander amy.hollander@nrel.gov

  3. Solar Market Update Q3 2013

  4. NREL’s Presenter on Market Updates for Solar Kristen ArdaniSolar Technology Markets and Policy Analyst kristen.ardani@nrel.gov References/sources go here

  5. Outline • PV Technology • Resource Assessment • Installed Capacity • Module, Cell, Wafer, and Polysilicon Price Trends • System Price Trends • 10kW to 100kW • greater than 5MW • 2012 Residential LCOE • Informational Resources

  6. Photovoltaic Technology • High reliability, warranties of 20 years or more • PV modules are wired in series and parallel to meet voltage and current requirements • The economic viability of solar PV is more of a reality today than ever before. • Driving this has been the reduction of costs for both modules and the Balance of System (BOS) components such as racking, inverters, combiner boxes, disconnects, and inverters. References/sources go here

  7. PV Solar Resource • References/sources go here

  8. PV Solar Resource in Southwest Tribal Lands

  9. Flat Plate PVSystems Dangling Rope Marina, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Utah Photo by Warren Gretz, NREL Arizona Public Service, Prescott, Arizona Photo from Arizona Public Service Alamosa PV System, Alamosa, Colorado Photo by Tom Stoffel, NREL 5–10 acres per megawatt (MW) for PV systems. Land can be left as is or graded

  10. US PV Annual Installation Projections Historic Projection • Note:P = projection; E=estimate. • Sources: data displayed represents the median figures from the following sources, New: BNEF (12/02/13), Goldman Sachs (01/06/14), GTM Research (December 2013). • Annual US installations in 2013 is estimated to be 4 - 4.5 GW • Analysts project installations to continue to increase through 2016 • Utility-scale installations to comprise over ½ of all installs • All sectors projected to grow • Note:P = projection; E=estimate. • Sources: data displayed represents the median figures from the following sources, New: BNEF (12/02/13), Goldman Sachs (01/06/14), GTM Research (December 2013).

  11. U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment • U.S Installed 930 MW of PV in Q3 2013, and 2.5 GW in Q1-Q3 2013 • Second half of 2013 U.S. non-residential market was 11% less than first half Note: “Next Four States”: MA, NV, NJ, HI. Sources: GTM/SEIA : U.S. Solar Market Insight Q3 2013.

  12. U.S. PV Installations by State (MWDC), Q3 ‘13 • Note: “Next Four States”: MA, NV, NJ, HI. • Sources: GTM/SEIA : U.S. Solar Market Insight Q3 2013. • Other markets opening up could spur demand such as MN, GA, NY (50kW-200 kW systems) • Cumulative U.S. PV is expected to exceed 10 GW in Q3/Q4 ’13 • Challenges maintaining growth rate in all sectors/states • Net metering and rate design in CA, CO, AZ, TX

  13. U.S. Large Solar Projects (> 5 MW) • Operating CSP & PV projects have finally caught up with those in construction and started cutting away at pipeline • Rate at which new contracts are being signed has slowed, though there are still quite a lot of U.S. projects in the development pipeline (20GW PV, 5GW CSP) Note: As of 01/15/14. Derate based on systems which reported both AC and DC capacities.

  14. Module, Cell, Wafer, & Polysilicon Price • Sources: Barclays (12/14/09); BNEF Solar Spot Price Index (01/15/14); Stifel Nicolaus (05/05/11); UBS ((2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/27/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11, 6/3/11, 6/16/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11, 12/12/11, 1/20/12, 2/13/12, 4/19/12)). Module and component prices experiencing relatively stable pricing for past year, with modest increases as supply/demand more in balance c-Si modules haven’t had positive price change from Jan/Jan since ‘07/’08 • Sources: Barclays (12/14/09); BNEF Solar Spot Price Index (01/15/14); Stifel Nicolaus (05/05/11); UBS ((2/12/10, 4/23/10, 7/27/10, 10/29/2010,1/24/11, 6/3/11, 6/16/11, 8/17/11, 9/16/11, 12/12/11, 1/20/12, 2/13/12, 4/19/12)).

  15. Average System Pricing by Region10 kW – 100 kW • System prices in the above statescontinue overall downward trajectory • Average system price in Q3 ‘13 for systems 10 – 100 kW between $4.1W - $4.9/W 2013 YTD MW: AZ (14); CA H.O. (19); CA 3rd-P (24); MA H.O.(4); MA 3rd-P (1); NJ (17). Sources: CSI Database, accessed 09/30/13; MA SREC Program, accessed 09/30/13; Arizona Public Services, & Salt River Project, accessed 10/02/13; NJ SRP & REIP, accessed 07/31/13. Note:Only Q3 ‘13 NJ installs included before 07/31/13 (latest reporting).

  16. 2012 Residential LCOE in 6 Largest State MarketsIncluding Incentives Source: Cumulative capacity: GTM/SEIA : U.S. Solar Market Insight Q1 2012. U.S. Population: U.S. census bureau, http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2011/index.html. Incentives: dsireusa.org (accessed 07/09/12); The California Solar Initiative, http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org. Incentive assumptions: AZ: APS Renewable Energy Incentive Program, $0.50/W; 25% or $1,000 Max PTC Residential Solar and Wind Energy Systems Tax Credit. CA: CSI Program, EPBB Payment, Step 9, $0.20/W. CO: Xcel Energy - Solar*Rewards Program Customer-owned systems up to 10 kW: $0.15/kWh, All REC purchases are for a period of 20 years. HI: Solar and Wind Energy Credit (Personal). Single family residential property is eligible for a credit of 35% of the actual cost or $2,250, whichever is less. NJ: $239/MWh, 15 Yrs, declining at 3.5%/yr. Corresponds to approx. new SACP schedule, reduced by $100. NY: NY Residential Solar Tax Credit, 25% for solar-electric (PV) and solar-thermal systems. Maximum incentive:$5,000 for solar-energy systems; NY PV Incentive Program $1.50/watt DC. Maximum incentive: maximum determined by sector, incentive level; may not exceed 40% of costs after any available tax credits or $10,500. PA: Pennsylvania Sunshine Solar Rebate Program, Residential PV: lesser of $7,500 or 35% of installed costs. Solar Alternative Energy Credits, varies based on market conditions; during 2012 the market price for PA-sourced SRECs has ranged from approximately $120 - $170/MWh ($0.12 - $0.17/kWh) (In model used $.05/kWh). “National Average” assumes federal but no State, local, or utility incentives. Kansas City, MO is used for insolation purposes. System assumptions: 25 degree tilt; 6% WACC; 1% degradation; 84.6% derate factor; $32.80/kW/yr O&M. Retail residential rates: all states but CA: EIA (2010), http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data.cfm#sales. CA: SCE, schedule D, delivery service, generation charges 131%-200% baseline

  17. Useful Solar Resources for PV PROJECT DEVELOPMENT & FINANCE “GENERAL” • For General Project Development & Finance: http://www.nrel.gov/applying_technologies/financing.html • Tribal Business Structure Handbook (Nilles, Kathleen, NAFOA): www.nafoa.org PROJECT DEVELOPMENT “RESOURCES” • NREL Learning About Renewables: http://www.nrel.gov/learning/re_photovoltaics.html • Renewable Energy Atlas: http://maps.nrel.gov/re_atlas • PVWatts: http://www.nrel.gov/rredc/pvwatts/ • System Advisor Model https://sam.nrel.gov PROJECT DEVELOPMENT “OFF-TAKE” • Power Purchase Agreement Checklist: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy10osti/46668.pdf • Renewable Portfolio Standards: http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/states/maps/renewable_portfolio_states.cfm

  18. What is SAM? The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free user-friendly computer program that calculates a renewable energy system’s hourly energy output over a single year, and calculates the cost of energy for a renewable energy project over the life of the project. These calculations are done using detailed performance models, a detailed cash flow finance model, and a library of reasonable default values for each technology and target market. https://sam.nrel.gov 18

  19. David Feldman Senior Financial Analyst National Renewable Energy Laboratory 202-488-2231 david.feldman@nrel.gov Robert Margolis Senior Analyst National Renewable Energy Laboratory 202-488-2222 robert.margolis@nrel.gov Thank You Special thanks to: Adam Cohen, Lidija Sekaric, Craig Turchi

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