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Measure of System Effectiveness Missile Defense System. By Alfred Terris 054 3010050 [email protected] . Method for Estimating Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System .

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Measure of system effectiveness missile defense system l.jpg
Measure of System EffectivenessMissile Defense System

By Alfred Terris

054 3010050

[email protected]

UNCL:ASSIFIED


Method for estimating effectiveness of a missile defense system l.jpg

Method for Estimating Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System

Utilization of Time Estimates of Processes in order to Determine the Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System against a given type of Threat

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Definition System

  • System Effectiveness: Number of enemy threats destroyed in a continuous wave attack - no time interval between enemy threats. (This is a type of attack that can be initiated from a multiple rocket launcher mounted on a vehicle

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Phases of Threat Engagement System

  • Detection and Classification of the Threat

  • Decision to Engage the Threat (Assign Weapon to Threat)

  • Assess Results of Engagement (Reengage Same Threat or new Threat)

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Phase 1 – Detection and classification of the Threat System

  • This phase starts with the threat at range at which it can be detected with a given single scan probability (e.g. 90%). This requires a knowledge of:

    • the target characteristics (cross-section),

    • search system characteristics (scan time, beam size, receiver sensitivity, power)

  • This phase includes the functions of threat analysis (can this threat be intercepted by the defensive system), assigning the threat to a defensive system

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Phase 2 – Decision to Intercept Enemy Missile System

  • Tracking of Target By Weapon Control Sensor

  • Decision to Launch Interceptor based upon geometry, evaluation of situation

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Phase 3 - Destroy Enemy Missile System

  • Launch Interceptor missile or employ other suitable means to destroy enemy missile

  • Evaluate effectiveness of weapon (is enemy missile intact?)

  • If enemy missile is intact, can it be reengaged prior to arriving at its target?

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Phase 3 - Destroy Enemy Missile (Continued) System

  • Engage Next Enemy Missile in Sequence

    • Designate next enemy missile to Interceptor

    • Launch Interceptor missile or employ other suitable means to destroy enemy missile

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Attack Geometry & Sequence System

Sequence of Events

Geometry

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Methodology Requires Designers To Provide Parameters/Error Sources

  • Probability of Single Scan Detection (function of power, pulses on target per scan, ECM, etc)

  • Time to establish target path vs accuracy

  • Alignment errors between search and missile guidance radar

  • Missile kill probability vs expected miss

  • And others

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Flexibility of Methodology Sources

  • Methodology can be implemented in the form of differential equations and resultant analytic solutions

  • Methodology can be implemented in the form of a simulation

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Lessons To Be Learned Sources

  • Which system parameters, if improved, provide the greatest system improvement

  • Does the expected system performance justify the cost of the system

  • Sensitivity of system performance to small changes in threat parameters

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