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Metropolitan’s SWP Supply Forecasting and Optimal Scheduling

Metropolitan’s SWP Supply Forecasting and Optimal Scheduling. CWEMF Annual Meeting February 27, 2007 Peter Louie Metropolitan Water District of So. California. Objectives. Improve short-term water management decision-making and scheduling for MWD

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Metropolitan’s SWP Supply Forecasting and Optimal Scheduling

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  1. Metropolitan’s SWP Supply Forecasting and Optimal Scheduling CWEMF Annual Meeting February 27, 2007 Peter Louie Metropolitan Water District of So. California

  2. Objectives • Improve short-term water management decision-making and scheduling for MWD • Allow varying levels of risk to be considered in decision-making • Utilize optimization to mimic water supply, water quality, and cost preferences

  3. Regional water supply to 6 counties 26 Member Agencies Supply 18 million people Supply 1.5 billion gallons of water/day 1,072 miles of pipelines, tunnels, & canals 5 treatment plants 17 reservoirs 16 hydroelectric power plants 45 major control structures 5 pumping plants on the CRA • SWP entitlement: 1.9 MAF (2006) • CRA entitlement: 652 TAF MWD Water Operations

  4. Sacramento Valley transfers& DWR Drought Bank Semitropic W.S.D. San Joaquin Valleytransfers Kern Delta W.D. Arvin-Edison W.S.D. Mojave W.A. San Bernardino Valley M.W.D. Arizona Banking Castaic Lake Diamond Valley Lake San Luis Reservoir Hayfield Basin Lake Perris Skinner Reservoir Lake Mathews Coachella Valley W.D. Palo Verde I.D. Imperial I.D. Dry-YearPortfolio • Surface Reservoirs • Multi-Year Programs (Ground water) • Single-Year Options (Transfers)

  5. WSDM Action Timeline Final Kern Delta Notification Put/Take EWA Negotiations DWCV Callback Notification SWP initial Allocation Arvin Edison Notification Put/Take Kern Delta Notification For Put only Semitropic Notification Put SWP Final Allocaton Turnback Pool B SBVMWD Transfers Notification Semitropic Notification Take Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Nov Dec 2005 2006 Decision to take SBVMWD Transfers DWCV Deliveries Set Carryover Limits

  6. System Models Integration And Optimization Schema Allocation and storage conditions wq characteristics SWP Forecasts WQ, WS Transfers North of Delta Availability of quantity, timing and wq characteristics Delta Ops Transfers South of Delta Availability of quantity, timing and wq characteristics WQCP/ESA/EWA/b2 and other Delta regulations and requirements Aqd./Res. Model Tracking wq CRA Forecasts WQ, WS MWD Dist. System Model Optimization Procedure Allocation and storage conditions wq characteristics LP/DP approach to determine the desirable combination of SWP/CRA/ EWA/Transfers/MWD storage ops in meeting both the ws/wq objectives. Res. ops/ wq targets for treatment plants/ consumptive use/seasonal storage

  7. Overall Analytical Approach

  8. SWP Allocation Forecasting Tool Source Data CAM Input Runtime Control/ Data Setup

  9. Projections under Poor/No Forecast • Period of greatest uncertainty: October – January • Critical information • Risk of spill of carryover storage • Initial allocation • Positional Analysis provides broad sampling of possible hydrologic conditions • Monte-Carlo simulation with uniform sampling of historic hydrology • Climate indicators may indicate skewness from the uniform sampling • Reshaping of Position Analysis inputs • As forecast becomes available, CAM stand-alone may be used in conjunction with PA-CAM

  10. Projections with Available Forecast • Improving forecasts: February – May • Critical information • Delivery reliability • Storage conditions • P25, P50, P75, P90, P99 forecasts provide traces of possible hydrologic conditions • CAM stand-alone study provides delivery and storage estimates • Longer term assessed with CAM-PA simulations

  11. SWP Allocation Forecasting Tool Source Data CAM Input Runtime Control/ Data Setup

  12. Method for developing revised inflow distributions Official B-120 Forecast Updated Inflow Distribution Precipitation Indices + = Historical Inflow Traces Ranked Inflow Distribution Precipitation or Climate Indices + =

  13. Proposed Monte Carlo simulation method

  14. Summary • Forecast-Optimization approach shows promise for improving MWD water management • Consideration of uncertainty allows MWD decision-makers/operators to assess internal risk • Optimization approaches are actively being used in SWP and MWD systems • Future work will consider continuously-updated adjustments to forecasts • Prototype for MWD’s SWP-side supplies may be expanded

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