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Nevada Labor Market Briefing: September 2013

Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Frank R. Woodbeck, Director Bill Anderson, Chief Economist Leanndra Copeland, Supervising Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau. Nevada Labor Market Briefing: September 2013. Impacts of the Federal Government Shutdown.

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Nevada Labor Market Briefing: September 2013

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  1. Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation Frank R. Woodbeck, Director Bill Anderson, Chief Economist Leanndra Copeland, Supervising Economist Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau Nevada Labor Market Briefing: September 2013

  2. Impacts of the Federal Government Shutdown The Research and Analysis Bureau in Nevada’s Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation partners with the U.S. Department of Labor to oversee the State’s labor market information program. As a result of the Federal government shutdown, primary labor data (unemployment rate, job growth, etc.) for September is not available for dissemination at this time, as it normally would be. Our practice is to supplement our core labor market information each month with a variety of other indicators of economic activity in the State to provide a more complete picture of the health of the economy. In our September analysis which follows, we will utilize these special topics to offer a brief commentary on economic conditions in the State, including a look forward, highlighting our current labor market forecast recently presented to the Employment Security Council. When September labor market information becomes available, we will make every effort to prepare Nevada’s estimates for distribution as quickly as possible. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause, but we are faced with circumstances beyond our control.

  3. National Perspective

  4. Key U.S. Economic Indicators Readings of consumer sentiment and confidence remain volatile from month-to-month. While declines were measured in September, these barometers appear to be trending up over time. Real GDP up 2.5% in 2013:IIQ, with personal consumption expenditures up by 1.8%.

  5. U.S. Real GDP Growth (quarter-over-quarter; SAAR) • The nation’s economy grew 2.5% in 2013:IIQ, up from a 1.1% gain in the previous quarter. Growth in consumption expenditures came in at 1.8%, compared to a 2.3% gain in 2013:IQ.

  6. U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) • On the rise for 16 consecutive quarters. • Underlying trends benefit Nevada’s tourism/gaming/entertainment sector.

  7. Nevada Economic Indicators

  8. Key Nevada Economic Indicators July taxable sales up 6.2% from a year ago, the 37th straight gain. (+5.5% YTD) Gaming win up 11.2% in August. (0.8% YTD) Las Vegas visitor volume up 0.9% in August. (unchanged YTD) Gold prices averaged $1,347/oz. in September, off by $401 from a year ago and essentially unchanged from the previous month. The number of new business entity formations in Nevada rose 8.6% from a year ago in September. (0.2% YTD) The number of Nevadans seeking assistance through the State’s TANF Program fell two percent on a year-over-year basis in August. The growth in SNAP (“food stamps”) enrollment has eased considerably of late, and was up just 2.5%.

  9. Residential Construction and Real Estate Activity Nevada housing starts are up nearly 40% from a year ago through August. Resale prices in Southern Nevada have increased relative to a year ago in each of the past 18 months. Gains have been 25%+ in each of the past ten months. New home prices are also on the mend…up 12 straight months with five consecutive months of 30%+ gains. Resale activity in Southern Nevada is trending down as inventories have been constrained. September brought with it the 14th consecutive year-over-year decline in resales. Southern Nevada new home closings have risen sharply of late, and stand more than 50% higher than year-ago readings so far in 2013. Permit activity has also strengthened, suggesting continued improvement.

  10. Nevada Residential Mortgages in the Foreclosure Process: Loans Started and Total Inventory of Loans in the Foreclosure Process • The number of residential mortgages entering into the foreclosure process totaled 3,600 in this year’s second quarter, down by 200 from the prior three months; down from a peak of 20,700 and the lowest reading since late-2006. • All told, the total number of residential loans in the foreclosure process is approximately 22,600, down from a peak of 56,000.

  11. Nevada Personal Income Growth (year-over-year) • Consists of wages/salaries; dividends/interest/rents; and transfer payments. • Like other indicators, income trends suggest that the economy bottomed out over the 2009-2010 period. • In 2013:IIQ, personal income is up 2.7% from a year ago.

  12. Number of States with a Private Sector Job Growth Rate Lower than Nevada In the years preceding the recession, Nevada led the nation in employment growth (based upon QCEW information). Nevada was impacted by the recession more than any other state in terms of employment growth. Beginning In 2011, Nevada’s employment growth rate began rising again. Private sector jobs grew 2.3% in 2013:IQ, higher than that for 34 other states.

  13. Nevada Employers Growth (year-over-year) • Following three straight years of declines, the number of employers participating in Nevada’s Unemployment Insurance began to rise in 2012. • Gains have been recorded in each of the past eight quarters, but growth has eased a bit of late.

  14. Distribution of Private Sector Business Establishments by Employment Size • 72,800 individual worksites. • More than half, nearly 45,000, employ less than five workers. • There are just 75 establishments with at least 1,000 employees.

  15. Two Measures of Average Weekly Wages in Nevada • Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is based off of a complete count of jobs/wages and is a more accurate measure of average weekly wages. Current Employment Statistics estimates are survey-driven. • QCEW information does not show a pronounced drop in wages as the recession’s impacts unfolded, whereas CES estimates do.

  16. Nevada Labor Market Demographics: Black Employment • Black employment in Nevada totals about 98,100. • Down from a pre-recession peak of 107,300. • Up by 9,500 from the cyclical low.

  17. Nevada Jobs: History and Forecast Job growth turned positive in 2011, and continued on into 2012 and 2013. We are on pace to add about 23,000 jobs this year. Growth should strengthen a bit in 2014 and 2015. 26,000 and 30,000, respectively

  18. Nevada’s Unemployment Rate Forecast • The jobless rate peaked at 13.8% in 2010, and has declined more than four points since. • We expect a modest downtrend over the next several years. • 9.5% in 2013 (9.7% YTD) • 9.2% in 2014 and 8.8% in 2015

  19. For Additional Information, Please Contact: Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Research and Analysis Bureau Bill Anderson Chief Economist wdanderson@nvdetr.org Leanndra Copeland Supervising Economist L-copeland@nvdetr.org (775) 684-0450 http://www.nevadaworkforce.com follow us on Twitter @nvlabormarket

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