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Time-reversed Analysis

Time-reversed Analysis. David A. Kenny. The Basic Idea. Redo the analysis but flip or reverse the flow of time. So for a two-wave study, have Time 1 become Time 2 and Time 2 become Time 1. See Campbell & Kenny, A Primer on Regression Artifacts (1999), pp. 158-163 for details.

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Time-reversed Analysis

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  1. Time-reversed Analysis David A. Kenny

  2. The Basic Idea • Redo the analysis but flip or reverse the flow of time. • So for a two-wave study, have Time 1 become Time 2 and Time 2 become Time 1. • See Campbell & Kenny, A Primer on Regression Artifacts (1999), pp. 158-163 for details.

  3. So instead of T1  T2 …

  4. You have T2  T1 …

  5. Why? • If you get essentially the same pattern of results in the time-reversed analysis, as in the original analysis, that calls into question the original analysis. • For the above figures, if we find that the path from X to Y is bigger than the path from Y to X in both the regular and the time-reversed analysis, we should be suspicious of analyses.

  6. A Nonsensical Analysis? • A time-reversed makes no sense. • The idea is that if the results from a nonsense analysis make as much as the regular analysis, then maybe the regular analysis does not make sense.

  7. When to Consider a Time-Reversed Analysis? • Some analysis techniques yield the opposite results when a time reversed analysis is performed. • For example if X is regressed on Y2 – Y1 (i.e., change) to yield b, then when X is regressed on time reversed change or Y1 – Y2, the result is –b. • A time-reversed analysis is more useful when an earlier time is used to predict a later time. • If regression toward the mean is a plausible explanation of a result, then a time-reversed analysis might be beneficial.

  8. An Illustration Kee, K. S., Qreen, M. F., Mintz, J., & Brekke, J. S. (2003). Is emotion processing a predictor of functional outcome in schizophrenia? Schizophrenia Bulletin,29, 487-497. (If you have an illustration, please let me know.)

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