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CLEAN FUELS UPGRADE at PETROTRIN’S POINTE- A-PIERRE REFINERY. Mendoza, Argentina. October 31, 2006. Steve Hilaire. OUTLINE. Introduction Business Background Scope Economics Capital Expenditure Results & Benefits Project Risks Status Financing Template.
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CLEAN FUELS UPGRADE at PETROTRIN’S POINTE- A-PIERRE REFINERY Mendoza, Argentina October 31, 2006 Steve Hilaire
OUTLINE • Introduction • Business Background • Scope • Economics • Capital Expenditure • Results & Benefits • Project Risks • Status • Financing Template
Introduction – About Trinidad & Tobago • Access to emerging & developed markets • Highly skilled and trained workforce • Stable economic/political environment • Global leader in • Export of Methanol • Export of Ammonia • Export of LNG to USA
Introduction – PETROTRIN History • 1917: Commence Operations of P-a-P Refinery • 1940/41: Eastern Refinery Established • 1952: FCCU Installed • 1956: Acquisition by Texaco • 1958: No 1 CRU – Gasoline Upgrade & BTX • 1960/62: No 8 CDU, No 1 HTU, No 2 CRU • 1964/66: Lube Oil & Normal Paraffins • 1972: No 4 VDU & No 2 HTU –Fuel Oil Desulf • 1985: Acquisition by State • 1992/96: Refinery Upgrade – Phase 1 • Increased Conversion & Full Refining Capacity • Partial Revamp of FCCU • Rehab of No 2 HTU, No 2 CRU, • New Units: VBU, Hydrogen, Sulfur, MTBE • DCS Controls
Introduction – PETROTRIN OVERVIEW • Fully State-owned • Commercially operated • Integrated • Exploration • Production • Refining • Marketing
Introduction – Crude Oil Supply • Crude capacity – 168 MBPCD • Current conversion capacity 150 MBPD • Local crude 40 – 45 % (low cetane gas oil) • Imported crudes • Venezuela • Brazil • Columbia • Ecuador • West Africa (high cetane)
Introduction – Product Supply • Markets • Local 100 % - 18% of Volume • Regional 75 % - 30% of Volume • Extra regional 5 % - 20% of Volume • International - 32% of Volume • Approx 10 % volume- unfinished/low value products • CRU naphtha • Low octane mogas • FCCU feed (VGO)
Introduction: Operational Performance – R&M Performance Factors Petrotrin is highly sensitive to market price because it is a merchant refiner Market Price Sales Revenue High fuel oil cut & low value products reduces profits Lacks clean fuels capacity Mix + Volumes High unit operating costs compared to peers Direct Cost Financial Performance OPEX Indigenous crude only supplies 40% of needs Profitability Cash Flow ROACE Other High spend on maintaining competitiveness of old infrastructure Sustaining CAPEX Project delays / deferrals have led to missed opportunities Growth There are multiple areas where changes could improve future financial performance
Introduction: Operational Performance – R&M Current and Planned R&M Improvement Initiatives Market Price Sales Revenue Clean fuels upgrade – in progress Mix + Volumes Bottom of Barrel Upgrade (conceptual stage) Direct Cost Refinery business improvement project (SGSI) Performance OPEX E&P oil winning projects (halt production decline) Profitability Cash Flow ROACE Other Infrastructure upgrade (planning stage) Sustaining CAPEX Growth Gasoline upgrade (implementation stage) A mixture of upgrades and operational changes to improve performance
BUSINESS BACKGROUND – Driving Forces • Gasoline Optimisation Program • Equipment Integrity • No 1 CRU: 3 of 4 Rxs Changed – Expect 3 years Max • No 2 CRU: Remaining Life Estimated at 6 – 8 years • Sale of Unfinished Low Value Product • Reformer Feed • Low Octane Gasoline • VGO as FCCU Feed • Tighter Specifications • Elimination of Lead & MTBE– Octane & Volume Loss • Lower Benzene, Sulfur, Olefins and RVP • Increased Octane Demand • Shortfall of Premium Gasoline to some markets
BUSINESS BACKGROUND – Driving Forces (Cont’d) • Tighter Diesel Specifications • Sulfur Reduction • Cetane Increase • Decrease in aromatics • Phase II - BOB Upgrade • High Fuel percent of Product Sales • Shrinking Fuel Oil Market
BUSINESS BACKGROUND – Options • Discontinue Refining Operations • Huge economic impact on country and South in particular. • New refinery • Grassroots facility US$3-4 Bn • Upgrade Current refinery • Performance and Technology
Scope Identified • Gasoline Optimisation Program • FCCU: Upgrade • Capacity from 26,000 BPSD to 35,000 BPSD • Product Octane from 81 MON to 83 MON • Pre-Fractionation • Remove Benzene from CRU feed • Provide feed for Isomerisation • Isomerisation • New 7,400 BPSD using C5/C6 Naphtha Feed • Improve Octane from 70 MON to 80 MON
PROGRAM SCOPE (Cont’d) • CCRPlatformer • Replace Fixed Bed Platformers • Improve product Octane from 86 MON to 90 MON • Alkylation • New using C3/C4 ex FCCU • New Acid Regen Plant • Optimize LPG Production • Offsites & Utilities • New Boiler & Water Treating • Tanks, Transfer Systems • Power Supply • Control equipment • Flare System
PROGRAM SCOPE (Cont’d) • New ULSD Hydrogenator • 35,000 BPSD unit • 8 – 9 point cetane lift • < 25% aromatics • 8 ppm S
Economics & Approval • LP model Runs • Delta economics • Base case vs enhanced • Price/markets scenario forecast • Optimum configuration determined • Capex Estimates • Published/licensor data • Inflated for time/location/experience • Economics developed • Increased margin • DCFROR • NPV • Payback
Economics & Approval • Income statement/Cash Flows generated • Sensitivity/ Risk Analyses developed • Approval Process • Executive management • Board • Shareholder - Cabinet
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE • New Units ISBL 630 MM • OSBL, Project Mgmt Other 170 MM TOTAL (2006) 800 MM ORIGINAL ESTIMATE 650 MM (2005)
PROGRAM BENEFITS • Gasoline Optimisation Program • Increase Gasoline Quantity • Total from 24% to 30% • Eliminate Unfinished Products (Naphtha & VGO) • Improve Gasoline Quality • Increase MON from 83 to 86 • Reduce Benzene from 1.6% to 0.7% • Reduce sulphur fron 41 ppm to 8 ppm • Customer Satisfaction • Lower Olefins in LPG • Ability to eliminate MTBE
PROGRAM BENEFITS (Cont’d) • ULSD HTU • Improve Gas Oil Quality • Increase Pool Cetane • Reduce Aromatics/ Pool Sulfur • Improved Operations of the P-a-P Refinery • Energy Efficiency & Environmental Compliance • Increase full refining capacity to 168 MBPCD • Ability to process sour, low cetane crudes • Petrocaribe (New) • Products displaced from regional market • Improved Quality can be marketed elsewhere
COUNTRY BENEFITS • Local Content:20% or US$ 160 million • Maximize local sub contractors • Offsite Works by Petrotrin • Construction Labor: 14million hours • Peak Site Labor: 2,800 • Corp Tax / UL: US$ 375 million • Sustained Operations of P-a-P Refinery • Security of Fuel Supply / Prices • Economic Activity
PROJECT RISKS • Market / Product Pricing • Delay in Tighter Specs / Conservative Prices Used • Capital Cost Overrun • Scope of Work • EPC Contracts – Hybrid vs Lump Sum • Schedule Delays • Statutory Approval • Experienced EPC Contractors • Industrial relations problems • Skilled sub-contractor labour
PROJECT RISKS • Technology: • Well Proven / State-of –the Art • Environmental: • No new type of effluent • Refinery systems (current and proposed) adequate • Funding: • Current Market Conditions Ideal for Loan
Status • Pre Frac/Isomerization • EPC awarded • Piling commenced • Commercial production Dec 2007 • FCCU upgrade • Discussions on EPC award – Hybrid contract • Project completion date April 2008 • CCR Platformer • EPC Negotiations complete • ETC December 2008 • Alky / Acid • Hybrid contract • Lump sum for services • Re imbursable for Equipment/materials
Status – Points to Note • Get Project Manager on board early. • Licensor estimates normally low. • Don’t forget infrastructure and services • Industry quite busy – Innovative bid requests required. • Fast track procurement on long lead items • Monitoring and control essential
GAS OPT PROGRAM- FINANCING PLANMAJOR FINANCING OPTIONS Note: Fixed Rate funding with minimum 10 Year tenor and minimum 2 Year moratorium is preferred.