Credible Intervals, Bayes Theorem + Diagnostic Tests. Outline. Credibile Intervals Posterior Distribution and Bayes Theorem Sensitivity Specificity Positive Predictive Value ROC curve. See Pagano- Chapter 6- section 1-4. Credibile Intervals. For Prob(Smoking)=p in a Population:
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See Pagano- Chapter 6- section 1-4
D = “have disease”
Dc =“do not have disease”
T+=“positive screening result”
Find the probability that an individual
who tests positive actually has disease
Find P(D |T+)
Choose cutpoint using points closest to perfect.