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Random Samples. 12/5/2013. Readings. Chapter 6 Foundations of Statistical Inference (Pollock) ( pp 122-135 ). Final Exam. SEC 1 December 11 th (Wednesday) 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm SEC 2 December 10 th (Tuesday) 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm. Final Paper. Due 12/6/2013 by 11:59 AM- Doyle 226B

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readings
Readings
  • Chapter 6 Foundations of Statistical Inference (Pollock) (pp 122-135)
final exam
Final Exam
  • SEC 1
    • December 11th (Wednesday)
    • 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm
  • SEC 2
    • December 10th (Tuesday)
    • 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm
final paper
Final Paper
  • Due 12/6/2013 by 11:59 AM- Doyle 226B
  • Turnitin via Blackboard Copy by 11:59PM on 12/6
reminders for the paper
Reminders for the Paper
  • Dataset information is in Chapter 1 and in the appendix (p. 2-4). GSS and NES also has information on line
    • World.sav- http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/pnorris/Data/Data.htm
  • If running x-tabs don’t forget column %’s
office hours for the week
Office Hours For the Week
  • When
    • Friday 7-12
    • No Office hours during final exam week
    • And by appointment
course learning objectives
Course Learning Objectives
  • Students will learn the basics of polling and be able to analyze and explain polling and survey data.
  • Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design.
sampling

Sampling

After we write the survey, we have to select people!

rules on sampling
Rules on Sampling
  • if cost dictates that a sample be drawn, a probability sample is usually preferable to a nonprobability sample.
  • The Law of Large Numbers
collecting a sample
Collecting a sample
  • Population
  • Sampling Frame
  • The Sample itself
slide12
The best that we can hope for is that every unit in the sampling frame has an equal chance of being selected
the law of large numbers
The Law of Large Numbers
  • Smaller samples cause greater error.
  • The larger the sample size, the greater the probability that our sample will represent the population.
polling is science astronomy
Polling is Science (Astronomy)
  • Polls are right more than they are wrong
  • We especially love them when it favors our candidates.
polling is random astrology
Polling is Random (Astrology)
  • It is not an exact science, there is error in every poll.
  • Polls Don’t Vote, People Vote
  • We like it less when it doesn’t favor our candidate
different questions perhaps
Different Questions Perhaps?
  • If the election were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
  • If the election were held today, would you vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
  • If the election were held today, would you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?
  • If the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama?
  • If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
the accuracy of estimates is expressed in terms of the margin or error and the confidence level
The accuracy of estimates is expressed in terms of the margin or error and the confidence level
the confidence level
The Confidence Level
  • The Confidence Level- can we trust these results?
  • Surveys use a 95% confidence interval that the results will fall within the margin of error
  • There is a 5% (1 out of 20) chance that the results will fall outside this range and produce wacky findings.
  • This error often appears when you keep asking the same questions again and again
the margin of error
The Margin of Error
  • Margin of Error
  • A floating range above and below the estimate.
  • Large Samples= Less Error
still too early
Still too early

PPP POLL

Texas Tribune Poll

on these polls
On these Polls

PPP

Texas Tribune

Abbott could be leading by as much as 42.83 to 31.17

The Race could be as close as 37.17 to 36.83 for Abbott

Races that fall within the margin of error we say “too close to call”.

  • Abbott could be leading by as much as 54.4 to 30.6
  • The Race could be as close as 45.6-39.4
what else determines sampling error
What else determines sampling error
  • Non-response rate
  • Variability
  • Bias
how can a survey of 1000 people represent millions of voters
How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent Millions of Voters?
  • Responses Cancel each other out
  • No New opinions are added
cluster sampling how we conduct it
Cluster Sampling (How we conduct it)
  • People Move, Houses Don’t
  • Random Samples of known units
  • Each unit in the cluster has a chance
personal interviews1
Personal Interviews
  • Advantages
  • Disadvantages
collecting a sample1
Collecting a Sample
  • Every address is in our frame
  • Often Used to target specific Groups
  • Less popular for “hot topics”
about mail
About Mail
  • Advantages
  • Disadvantages
telephone surveys1
Telephone Surveys
  • Every Phone Number has an equal Chance of Being Selected
  • It is important that you select the right people
advantages of phone
Advantages of Phone
  • Fast
  • CATI
  • Closed Ended Questions
why it is not a true random sample
Why it is not a true random sample
  • Some people do not have phones
  • Some people simply will not answer (75% refusal rate)
surveys miss out on
Surveys miss out on
  • Poll Sampling excludes many—minorities, young people, and new Americans
  • Angry White Men
problems of cell phones
Problems of Cell Phones
  • Some polls Exclude them
  • You have to pay people to participate
  • Some polls contact you and ask you to call back
exit polls
Exit Polls
  • Use a random selection of polling places
  • Quick Recall and Fast Data
  • Problems (early voting)
verify all polls
Verify all Polls
  • Who Conducted it
  • How many they sampled
  • How they sampled
  • Specific question wording
always check
Always Check
  • Who sponsored the poll
  • How they got the sample
  • How big was the sample
  • Specific questions