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Modeling the impact of future climate change on salmon habitat restoration actions . James Battin Mark Scheuerell Krista Bartz Hiroo Imaki Mary Ruckelshaus Matthew Wiley Elizabeth Korb Richard Palmer. Northwest Fisheries Science Center. UW Civil & Environmental Engineering.

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slide1

Modeling the impact of future climate change on salmon habitat restoration actions

James BattinMark ScheuerellKrista BartzHiroo ImakiMary RuckelshausMatthew WileyElizabeth KorbRichard Palmer

Northwest Fisheries Science Center

UW Civil & Environmental Engineering

slide3

Habitat Destruction & Degradation

  • Habitat Destruction (¯ Capacity)
  • Riparian forest clearing
  • ChannelizationHabitat Degradation (¯ Survival)
  • Increased water temperature
  • Larger floods
  • Increased sedimentation
slide4

Proposed Habitat Restoration Actions

  • Restore instream habitat --Riparian restoration --Habitat reconnection --Instream habitat restoration
  • Restore hydrologic processes --Land use modification --Floodplain restoration --Road removal
  • Overall goal: increase salmon population size to some target level
slide5

Modeling Salmon Population Responses to Restoration

  • SHIRAz
  • Relates changes in environment to changes in salmon population size via: --Capacity --Survival
  • Process-based
  • Spatially explicit
  • Stage-structured
slide6

Climate

Life-cycle

model

Conceptual Foundation

  • Life-cycle model is at the core
  • Changes to the “H’s” alter habitats, ecological interactions, and population dynamics

Landscape

processes

Land use

Habitat

effects

Hatchery

effects

Harvest

effects

Hydropower

effects

SHIRAZ

assessing habitat conditions and landscape processes for life cycle modeling
Assessing habitat conditions and landscape processes for life-cycle modeling
  • Instream habitat conditions available from field inventories, gages, and models
  • Land cover information from inventories and GIS-based modeling
  • Fish data from TRTs
  • Fish-habitat relationships from literature
slide8

Riparian Forest

Artificial Barriers

Off-channel Habitat

Habitat Structures

Impervious Surface

Forest Cover

Temperature

Peak Flow Events

Survival from Stage s→s+1 (ps→s+1)

Abundance at Stage s+1 (Ns+1)

Modeling Salmon Population Response to Restoration: SHIRAZ

Action Class Variables

Edge Habitat

Road Density

Fine Sediment

SHIRAZ Inputs

Capacity at Stage s+1 (cs+1)

Abundance at Stage s (Ns)

SHIRAZ Outputs

slide9

Functional relationships in SHIRAZ

Incubation temperature

(egg-to-fry survival)

Freshwater

habitat

Pre-spawning temperature (spawner-to-egg survival)

Fine sediment (egg-to-fry survival)

Biological

response

Peak Flow

(egg-to-migrant survival)

slide10

Egg

Fry

Smolt

Adult

SHIRAZ is a life-cycle model

estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions

peak flows

sediment

temperature

stream gradient

stream width

riparian condition

channel structure

edge habitat

estuary connectivity

temperature

slide12

Evaluation of Restoration Scenarios

Three scenarios:1) Historical: Pre-European settlement2) Current Path: Extrapolation of land use change3) Restoration

shiraz results spawner abundance
SHIRAZ Results: Spawner Abundance

Target

Percent of Historical

slide14

Historical

Summarizing

spatial structure

No spawning

<500 spawners

500-1000 spawners

>1000 spawners

Current path

Restoration

slide15

Assumptions of First Round of SHIRAZ Modeling

  • Static climate conditions
  • Linear projection of land use changeHow robust are proposed restoration actions to violations of these assumptions?
slide16

Climate Change Over Next 50 Years in the Northwest

  • Warmer air temps  warmer water temps
  • Earlier snowmelt  earlier (more intense?) flooding, lower summer flows
  • Altered precipitation regime (maybe wetter)  increased flood magnitude
  • Altered ocean conditions (possibly warmer)  decreased ocean survival
slide17

Increased Water

Temperature

Altered Stream

Flow

Incubation

Temp

PrespawningTemp

IncubationFlow ­

Capacity

(Ad. & Juv.)

Survival ¯

SpawningCapacity ¯

JuvenileCapacity?

Modeled Climate Effects on Salmon

Climate Change

slide18

Scenario Planning

  • Uncertainty high, change uncontrollable
  • Evaluate several plausible alternative futures (bracket extremes)
  • Assess how robust recovery actions are to alternative future change (land use and climate) scenarios
slide19

Future Scenarios for the Snohomish

  • Climate --no warming --moderate warming --extreme warming
slide20

Future Scenarios for the Snohomish

  • Climate --no warming --moderate warming --extreme warming
  • Restoration --Historical conditions --Current path --Restoration plan (Alt. 3)
slide21

Future Scenarios for the Snohomish

  • Climate --no warming --moderate warming --extreme warming
  • Restoration --Historical conditions --Current path --Restoration plan (Alt. 3)
  • Land Use --Current Path --High growth --Low growth --Different policy assumptions
slide22

Changes to Modeling Framework

  • Q: How do we translate future climate and land use scenarios into variables SHIRAZ can use? e.g., how will climate change affect peak winter flows?
slide23

Changes to Modeling Framework

  • Q: How do we translate future climate and land use scenarios into variables SHIRAZ can use? e.g., how will climate change affect peak winter flows?
  • A: Interface with DHSVM stream flow model
slide24

Climate Model

(GCM)

Predicted

AtmosphericCO2

Air Temp., Meteorology

Hydrology Model

(DHSVM)

Land Cover & Land Form Maps

Stream flow, Temp.

Salmon Pop. Model

(SHIRAZ)

Salmon Population Forecast

slide25

Model Modifications

  • Make Land Use Change Targets (including Restoration and Current Path) Spatially Explicit
slide27

Alternative Land Use Scenarios

Current Path

2001

2025

slide28

Alternative Land Use Scenarios

Current Path

Restoration

2001

2025

slide29

Model Modifications

  • Make Land Use Change Targets Spatial
  • Make Model Stochastic (i.e., like a PVA)
slide30

Model Modifications

  • Make Land Use Change Targets Spatial
  • Make Model Stochastic
  • Develop interface with stochastic DHSVM hydrology model
slide31

Some Simple, Preliminary Model Perturbations

  • CLIMATE CHANGE
  • Pre-spawning temperature change: -- + 2 degrees C -- + 4 degrees C
  • Incubation period flows: -- + 20% -- + 40%RESTORATION
  • Increased juvenile rearing capacity
slide32

Climate Effects: Current Path

Percent of Current Path

slide33

Percent of Current Path

Interaction of Restoration and Climate

slide34

No spawning

<500 spawners

500-1000 spawners

>1000 spawners

X

X

X

X

X

X

Historical

Summarizing

spatial structure

Current path

Restoration

slide35

Future Directions

  • More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers
slide36

Future Directions

  • More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers
  • Interactions between hatchery and wild fish --competition, straying, genetics
slide37

Future Directions

  • More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers
  • Interactions between hatchery and wild fish --competition, straying, genetics
  • Climate (change) effects on ocean survival --correlated or uncorrelated with freshwater
slide38

Future Directions

  • More mechanistic/realistic projections of land use change --collaborate with land use modelers
  • Interactions between hatchery and wild fish --competition, straying, genetics
  • Climate (change) effects on ocean survival --correlated or uncorrelated with freshwater
  • Plasticity in life histories of wild fish --how might fish adapt to change? --how will climate/land use change affect the distribution of life history types?
slide39

Collaborators

University of Washington NOAA Fisheries

School of Aquatic & Fish. Sci. Mary RuckelshausRay Hilborn Krista Bartz Mark ScheuerellJISAO Hiroo ImakiNate Mantua Kerry LagueuxDept. of Civil & Env. Engin.Rick PalmerMatt WileyLiz KorbAndre Ball

james.battin@noaa.gov