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Forecast usefulness for subsistence farmers: results from a comparative field study in Zimbabwe

Forecast usefulness for subsistence farmers: results from a comparative field study in Zimbabwe Anthony Patt, PIK & Boston University Pablo Suarez, Boston University Chiedza Gwata, University of Zimbabwe SICCIA Presentation, 29 June 2004. Project Questions.

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Forecast usefulness for subsistence farmers: results from a comparative field study in Zimbabwe

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  1. Forecast usefulness for subsistence farmers: results from a comparative field study in Zimbabwe Anthony Patt, PIK & Boston University Pablo Suarez, Boston University Chiedza Gwata, University of Zimbabwe SICCIA Presentation, 29 June 2004

  2. Project Questions 1. What are the major barriers to forecasts helping farmers? Can forecasts help farmers? Can better communication practices make a difference?

  3. Project Questions 1. What are the major barriers to forecasts helping farmers? Can forecasts help farmers? Can better communication practices make a difference?

  4. Methodology

  5. Methodology

  6. Methodology

  7. Forecasts ond jfm ond jfm 25 25 30 30 40 40 45 40 35 35 25 30 2002 2003 2004

  8. 1. Forecasts help farmers New Results

  9. 1. Forecasts help farmers New Results A • Area planted (ha) H • Harvest this year (kg) B • Harvest in a typical bad year (kg) G • Harvest in a typical good year (kg)

  10. 1. Forecasts help farmers New Results A • Area planted (ha) H • Harvest this year (kg) B • Harvest in a typical bad year (kg) G • Harvest in a typical good year (kg) H A Yield Kg/ha

  11. 1. Forecasts help farmers New Results A • Area planted (ha) H • Harvest this year (kg) B • Harvest in a typical bad year (kg) G • Harvest in a typical good year (kg) H A H – B G – B Yield Comparison Kg/ha ... 0 ... 1 ...

  12. 1. Forecasts help farmers New Results A • Area planted (ha) H • Harvest this year (kg) B • Harvest in a typical bad year (kg) G • Harvest in a typical good year (kg) H A H – B G – B H – (B + G) / 2 (B + G) / 2 Yield Comparison Deviation Kg/ha ... 0 ... 1 ... –1 ... 0 ...

  13. Yield 1. Forecasts help farmers Kg/ha New Results

  14. Comparison 1. Forecasts help farmers ... 0 ... 1 ... New Results

  15. New Results Deviation 1. Forecasts help farmers – 1 ... 0 ...

  16. 2. Workshops increase forecast use New Results

  17. 2. Workshops increase forecast use New Results

  18. 2. Workshops increase forecast use New Results

  19. 2. Workshops increase forecast use New Results

  20. Conclusions Let‘s keep going with this foolishness. Let‘s apply what we know about good communication. Let‘s expect only modest results.

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