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IS MPEG-2 DEAD?

IS MPEG-2 DEAD?. The Future of Home Entertainment Systems and Advanced Codec Technology That Will Make it Work. . Peter Forman January 8, 2004 CES. Background. Executive and Consultant in Digital Media Industry Since 1989. First PC-based Hardware Codec – New Video Corporation, 1990

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IS MPEG-2 DEAD?

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  1. IS MPEG-2 DEAD? The Future of Home Entertainment Systems and Advanced Codec Technology That Will Make it Work. Peter Forman January 8, 2004 CES

  2. Background • Executive and Consultant in Digital Media Industry Since 1989. • First PC-based Hardware Codec – New Video Corporation, 1990 • First Software-based, Real-time MPEG-2 Codec for PC’s – Ligos Corporation 1998 • CEO and Consultant to DemoGrafx, Inc. - Sold to Dolby Labs - 2003

  3. The Battle for Home Entertainment Dominance

  4. Sony Strategy • Based in Entertainment Cluster • Emphasis on Features and Gaming Tie-in • PSX • Blu-ray Recording • Networking Focus - Support Local Devices in Entertainment Cluster • Less Dependent on Robust Wireless Video Connectivity

  5. Microsoft Strategy • PC-Centric “Hub and Spoke” Topology • Xbox is a Terminal, Not a Hub • PC Migrates From Home-Office Workstation to “Closet” Server • Windows XP Media Edition and Windows Media 9 Play Central Role • Robust Wireless Networking of Video is Key to this Approach

  6. MPEG-2 • THE International Standard for Video Compression Since 1995 • Digital Cable, Broadcast, DBS, DVD • Capable of Producing Reasonable SD Quality at Between 1.5 and 2 Mbps – Reasonable HD at 11 Mbps or Higher • Easily Encoded on Today’s Pentium Class CPU, and Decoded on Almost Any Processor • Widely Available as Inexpensive Hardware and Software Implementations for Every Application

  7. More Advanced Codecs • MPEG-4 Part 2 (2001) • DivX (Based on MPEG-4 Part 2) (2002) • Windows Media Video 9 – WMV9 (2003) • On2 VP6 (2003) • MPEG-4 Part 10/AVC/H.264 (2003+) • Layered Codecs – Pixonics pHD (2003)

  8. Benefits vs. MPEG-2 • More Bandwidth Efficient • MPEG-4 Part 2 – 25% - 50% • WMV9 – 200%+ • AVC – 200%+ (SD) up to 400%+ (HD) • Special Capabilities • MPEG-4 Part 2 and AVC – Resiliency • pHD – HD with Backward Compatibility to MPEG-2 • Better Licensing Terms • On2 and EVD (China) • WM9

  9. Costs vs. MPEG-2 • More Costly to Encode and Decode • AVC = 5x+ Encode and 3x Decode • WMV9 = 3x Encode and 1.5x Decode • More Costly/Difficult to Implement • Fewer solutions available • More difficult to multi-source • Licensing Issues • WMV9 is an Elegant, Well-Positioned Codec

  10. Market Drivers for Advanced Codecs • Bandwidth and Storage Limitations • Red Laser HD DVD (DVD-9) • Video Over Wireless Networks • Sony PSP • Solid State Memory Applications • Increased Bandwidth Requirements • HD • Multi-user Home Entertainment Systems

  11. Possible CE Applications • HD on DVD-9 • In-Home Video Redistribution Over Wireless • Hand held Entertainment Devices PREDICTIONS: 1) THROUGH 2007 ADVANCED CODECS WILL BE CHOSEN OVER MPEG-2 ONLY WHEN MPEG-2 CAN NOT BE MADE TO DO THE JOB = <15% OF OVERALL MARKET 2) AVC WILL TEND TO DOMINATE OVER PROPRIETARY CODECS (THOUGH WM9 HAS A CHANCE IF CUSTOMERS CAN OVERCOME MS PHOBIA) 3) PROVIDED LICENSING DOESN’T GET IN THE WAY AVC WILL REPLACE MPEG-2 FOR MOST IF NOT ALL CE APPLICATIONS OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS

  12. AVC in Home Media • Bulletin available from Jon Peddie Research The Battle Over Home Entertainment and the Future of Video Compression • There is a conflict of epic proportions shaping up between Sony and Microsoft over the storage, delivery and management of digital media in and around the home. • At stake for Sony – its continuing dominance of home entertainment electronics as it enters a new era. • For Microsoft, it’s about winning or losing new territory for the Windows OS as the market for productivity PC’s matures.

  13. Panelists • Divx, R. Jordan Greenhall • Ligos, George Mancuso • VIA, Alan Yuen • Vsoft, Thierry Fautier

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