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Chapter 5 – Producing Data YMS – 5.1. Designing Samples. Lots of Vocabulary. Observational Study Does not attempt to influence the responses Experiment Deliberately imposes some treatment on individuals in order to observe their responses

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lots of vocabulary
Lots of Vocabulary
  • Observational Study
    • Does not attempt to influence the responses
  • Experiment
    • Deliberately imposes some treatment on individuals in order to observe their responses
    • When goal is to understand cause/effect, experiments are only source of fully convincing data
slide4

Population

    • Entire group of individuals we want info about
    • A census attempts to contact everyone
  • Sample
    • Part of the population we actually examine
    • Sampling is studying a part in order to gain information about the whole
    • Done because time, cost, and inconvenience forbid contacting every individual
slide5

Sampling Frame

    • List from which a sample is actually selected
  • Sample Design
    • Method used to choose sample from population
    • Poor design can produce misleading conclusions
  • Bias
    • Systematically favoring certain outcomes
types of samples
Types of Samples
  • Voluntary Response
    • People who choose themselves by responding (usually have strong negative opinions)
  • Convenience
    • Choose the individuals that are easiest to reach
  • Simple Random (SRS)
    • Consists of n individuals from the population chosen in such a way that every set of n individuals has an equal chance to be the sample actually selected
slide7

Stratified Random

    • Divide the population into groups (strata), take an SRS of each group, combine results
  • Systematic Random
    • Randomly choose a starting point and select remaining individuals systematically
  • Multistage Sampling Design
    • Select successively smaller groups (state, county, city, neighborhood, block)
  • Probability
    • A sample chosen by chance
    • Must know every possible sample
beware
Beware!
  • Undercoverage
    • groups in the population are left out of the process of choosing the sample
    • When sampling frame is smaller than population
  • Nonresponse
    • individual chosen can’t be contacted or doesn’t cooperate
  • Response Bias
    • Occurs due to behavior of interviewer or respondent
  • Wording of Questions
    • Most important influence on the answers given to a sample survey
random digits table
Random Digits Table
  • Each entry is equally likely to be any of the digits 0-9
  • Entries are independent of each other
  • Choosing an SRS – Label & Table
    • Label with the fewest digits possible (i.e. 01 to 99 instead of 001 to 100)
    • Clearly identify labeling method – very important step for any simulation
inference about population
Inference About Population
  • Larger random samples give more accurate results than smaller samples BUT we have to beware of compromising independence.
  • Sampling with or without replacement

5.1 Practice/Homework: p273 #5.2, 5.5-5.8, 5.10-5.11, 5.13, 5.15, 5.17-5.18, 5.24-5.26, 5.30

5.1 Graded Activity/Classwork: Poker Analysis and Numb3rs “Traffic” episode

yms 5 2

YMS – 5.2

Designing Experiments

vocabulary for experiments
Vocabulary for Experiments
  • Experimental Unit
    • Individuals on which the experiment is being done
  • Subject
    • When units are human beings
  • Factor
    • Explanatory variables in an experiment
  • Level
    • Possible combination of factors
  • Treatment
    • Experimental condition applied to the units
  • Placebo
    • Dummy treatment
slide13

Placebo Effect

    • Favorable response just because it’s a treatment
    • Mind over body
  • Double-Blind
    • Neither the subject nor the researcher knows which treatment any subject has received
  • Comparative Experiments
    • Using a control group to compare several treatments in the same environment
  • Statistical Significance
    • An observed effect so large that it would rarely occur by chance
    • AKA The entire second semester of this class
principles of experimental design
Principles of Experimental Design
  • Control
    • Effects of lurking variables
  • Randomize
    • Treatments
  • Replicate
    • On many units to reduce chance variation
block design
Block Design
  • Blocks are groups of experimental units known before the experiment to be similar in some way that is expected to affect the response to the treatments
  • Random assignment of treatments is carried out separately within a block
slide17

p303

    • Blocks allow us to draw separate conclusions about each block, i.e. men and women…
    • A wise experimenter …
  • Matched Pairs
    • Blocking design which compares two treatments by choosing blocks of units that are as closely matched as possible
    • Order of treatment is assigned randomly
slide18

5.2 Practice/Homework

p293 #5.31-5.36

P303 #5.44-5.45

P306 #5.50, 5.52, 5.54

5.2 Classwork

Read “Healthier and Happier” Article, News clips

M*A*S*H clip, Blocking with Dogs

AP Practice questions and p308 #5.56

yms 5 3

YMS – 5.3

Simulating Experiments

vocabulary
Vocabulary
  • Simulation
    • Imitation of chance behavior
  • Independent Events
    • The result of one event has no effect or influence on another
steps of a simulation
Steps of a Simulation
  • State the problem or describe the experiment.
  • State the assumptions.
  • Assign digits to represent outcomes.
  • Simulate many repetitions.
  • State your conclusions.

5.3 Practice/Homework: p314 #5.60-5.61, 5.86

Ch 5 Review: p319 #5.74, 5.76, 5.82-5.83