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Macro Economics Policy: Exchange Rate

Macro Economics Policy: Exchange Rate. Chapter 19. Perdagangan Internasional. Transaksi perdagangan antara penduduk suatu negara dengan penduduk negara lain dicatat dalam Neraca Perdagangan ( Trade Account ) Jika X > M atau NX > 0, trade surplus Jika X < M atau NX < 0, trade deficit

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Macro Economics Policy: Exchange Rate

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  1. Macro Economics Policy: Exchange Rate Chapter 19

  2. PerdaganganInternasional • Transaksiperdaganganantarapenduduksuatunegaradenganpenduduknegara lain dicatatdalamNeracaPerdagangan (Trade Account) • Jika X > M atau NX > 0, trade surplus • Jika X < M atau NX < 0, trade deficit • Transaksi modal antarapenduduksuatunegaradenganpenduduknegara lain dicatatdalamNeraca Modal (Capital Account) • Jika X > M, capital deficit • Jika X < M, capital surplus

  3. Policy yang mengurangi Trade Deficit • Mekanisme Supply dan Demand akanbisamenjelaskan policy yang sesuai • Adaduapasar yang harusdipertimbangkan: • Market for Loanable Fund • Market for foreign currency exchange • Pada Market for Loanable Fund: Saving = Domestic Investment + Net Capital Outflow S = I + NCO • Sisikiri supply of loanable fund • Sisikanan  demand for loanable fund

  4. Market for Loanable Funds

  5. Market for foreign currency exchange • Persamaandasar: NCO = NX Net capital Outflow = NX • NX > 0  X > M  devisamasuk  devisainiharusdibelanjakanuntuk asset asing  NCO > 0 • NX < 0  X < M  devisakeluarnegeri  devisainidipenuhidenganpenjualan asset ataucadangandevisa  NCO < 0 • NCO  supply of foreign currency exchange • NX  demand for foreign currency exchange

  6. Keseimbangandalam Open Economy

  7. Kebijakan yang mempengaruhi • PengeluaranPemerintah (Government spending) • Budget deficit, Saving , Supply pada Market for Loanable Fund , sukubunga , NCO , Supply pada Market for foregin currency exchange , matauangmengalamiappresiasi, X , trade deficit. • KebijakanPerdagangan (Trade Policy) • Kuota Import, Import , Net Export , Demand pada Market for foregin currency exchange , matauangdomestikmengalamiappresiasi. • Tidakterjadiperubahanpada Market of Loanable fund sehingga NCO jugatidakberubah. • Kebijakanperdagangantidakberpengaruhsecaramakrotetapisercaramikro.

  8. Kebijakan yang mempengaruhi • Kebijakan Capital Flight • Terjadinya Capital Flight mendorong demand pada Market for Loanable Fund meningkat sukubunganaik • NCO akanmeningkat • Supply pada Market for Foreign Currency Exchange meningkat  matauangdomestikmelemah

  9. Penentuan Exchange Rate: Teori Purchasing Power Parity • Teori PPP (ParitasDayaBeli)  Hargaproduk yang samapadaduanegaraadalahsamajikadiukurdenganmatauang yang sama • Secara formula: • 1/P = e/P* • e = P*/P • Dimana: • e = nominal exchange rate (kurs yang berlaku) • P = hargadinegaraasing • P* = hargadidalamnegeri

  10. Diskusi • Apa yang terjadipadatingkatsukubungadalamnegeridantingkatkursjikapemerintahmenarikinvestasinya, baikpadaasetriilmaupunsekuritas, diluarnegeri ? • Umpamakanpemerintah Indonesia akanmenerapkan budget surplus. • Apakahtingkatsukubungaakannaik? • Apakahkurs Rupiah terhadapmatauangasingakanmelemah? • Saatini, ada moratorium (penghentian) pengirimanTenagaKerja Indonesia. Apadampakkebijakaniniterhadaptingkatsukubungadankurs? Apakahkebijakaninibaik?

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