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Tonight’s Agenda

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Tonight’s Agenda

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Tonight’s Agenda • Competition • Earnings • China: hard or soft landing…

  3. Competition • $10 to enter • $9.99 commission for trades • No Margin/ No Options • 5 min delay on trades • $1 minimum on stock share price • 50% diversification rule • 1% interest on cash

  4. The Market Last Week • S&P up 1.14% on the week • Positive Earning Results • Mixed Economic Data

  5. “There is still a dichotomy between robust earnings growth and global economic uncertainty”

  6. Thu 20 Oct 11 | 01:17 PM ET Rockets to Planet Stability in Europe

  7. Last Week’s Earnings Calendar:How’d they do?

  8. Earnings Results

  9. Earnings Results

  10. AT&T • Wireless customers spent less than expected in the quarter • The No. 2 U.S. mobile provider added 319,000 subscribers in the quarter, compared with expectation of 406,000 • This could reflect people waiting for the new iPhone • wireless profit margin was better than expected

  11. Meets Earnings Expectations but Shares Fall • beat expectations for revenue driven by: • Increased activity on the online marketplaces • Rising transactions through its PayPal payments network • Shares fall on restrained outlook for rest of year

  12. Earnings top estimates aided by accounting • Debit Value Adjustment (DVA)-allowed the company to push credit spreads out • Core revenue in trading, banking and wealth management operations all fell • Gross exposure to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal was $5.69 billion, while the bank's equity was about $60 billion.

  13. Revenue rose across its: • Big energy • Aviation • Healthcare • Transportation arms. • Expects to increase operating earnings per share at a double-digit percentage rate next year General Electric

  14. Macau Casinos Post Solid Earnings, Shares Fall on Outlook • Wynn Macau logged an 84 percent gain in third-quarter net profit • “Macau's thriving industry would suffer a blow in the event of a hard landing for China”

  15. Miss stunned Wall Street • It was the first earnings miss for the company since 2004 • Sales were hurt by customers waiting for the new version of the iPhone. • Product performance • iPadsales more than doubled • Mac sales jumped 26 percent • iPod sales fell 27 percent

  16. The shortfall underscores the growing importance to Apple for the iPhone, which accounted for 39 percent of revenue last quarter • Apple says that while iPhone sales fell off last quarter, the holiday quarter will be its best yet

  17. Union Pacific Railroads The rails are generally a pure play on the U.S. economy

  18. Earnings rose 16 percent as the railroad charged higher prices • The nation's largest railroad said it expects business to continue to grow despite an uncertain view of broader U.S. economy • Amount of cars and parts moved on its lines grew the most of any category

  19. UNP’s RAIL MAP: UNP dominates the western 2/3 of the U.S.

  20. Reported a third-quarter profit, helped by accounting gains and asset sales • The bank's main businesses showed signs of weakness as lending profit fell and expenses rose • Mortgage unit lost $1.1 billion in the quarter, nearly triple the $392 million loss a year ago.

  21. Halliburton: the world's second-largest oilfield services company

  22. Halliburton profit tops views on gas drilling demand • Demand for shale energy continues to climb across the U.S. despite low natural gas prices • shale boom expected to last at least through 2012

  23. Earnings Summary • Changes in earnings estimates may just be catching up to sentiment already priced into stocks. • Much of the third-quarter profit strength stems from still-strong international revenue growth • Prospects for corporate earnings are dimmer in the coming quarters, even though reports so far this quarter have been relatively bright

  24. Freeport-McMoRan • Copper and Gold miner • Market Cap: $32 Billion • Hit 52 week low last Tuesday

  25. Thu 20 Oct 11 | 05:40 PM ET Buy the Dip in Freeport?

  26. Soft Landing A term used to describe a rate of economic growth high enough to avoid recession, but slow enough to avoid high inflation. When the economy is growing at a strong rate, the Fed will try to engineer a soft landing by raising interest rates enough to slow the economy down without putting it into recession. Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, was a master at the soft landing. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp#ixzz1bdyRRYrs

  27. Hard Landing A term used to describe an economy going into recession as the government attempts to slow down inflation. The Fed will try to avoid a hard landing by raising interest rates only enough to slow the economy down without putting it into recession (a soft landing). http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hardlanding.asp#ixzz1bdz84bXH

  28. Soft or Hard Landing? • Growth in China’s economy slowed to an annual 9.1 percent in the third quarter from 9.5 percent in the three months through June • Can slowing down to 8% be considered a soft landing?

  29. NourielRoubini • American Economist • NYU Professor • Chairman and co- founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC. • Most known for publications predicting the U.S. housing bubble

  30. NourielRoubini’s Opinions • China’s efforts to prop up economic growth won’t help it escape the hard landing that will probably arrive in 2013 or 2014 • The prospect of a soft landing in China is a “mission impossible” • Policy makers will “do anything possible” to keep growth in national output at rates above 8 percent and ensure a “delicate” political transition isn’t hampered by an economic downturn

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