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Global Trends in Clean Energy Investment TBLI. Michael Liebreich Chairman & CEO New Energy Finance. Yokohama, 28 th May 2009. Global new investment in clean energy, 2004 – 2008. 5% Growth. 59% Growth. $155bn. $148bn. 58% Growth. 68% Growth. $93bn. $60bn. $35bn. 2004. 2005.

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global trends in clean energy investment tbli

Global Trends in Clean Energy InvestmentTBLI

Michael Liebreich

Chairman & CEO

New Energy Finance

Yokohama, 28th May 2009

global new investment in clean energy 2004 2008
Global new investment in clean energy, 2004 – 2008

5% Growth

59% Growth

$155bn

$148bn

58% Growth

68% Growth

$93bn

$60bn

$35bn

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

5xincrease from low level by around between 2004 and 2007

10%of global energy infrastructure spend

But the top-line hides what is happening in the past few quarters

Note: Adjusts for reinvested equity. Total value includes estimates for undisclosed deals.

Source: New Energy Finance

1

[v9.02]

slide3

2009

2008

NEX

S&P 500

NASDAQ

AMEX Oil

500

Exposure to energy prices

450

Early stage

400

Capital Hungry

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

NEX Clean Energy Index: 2003 - 2007

Note: Values as of 13 May 2009; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2003.

Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg

2

global third party new investment in clean energy q1 2004 q1 2009 bn
Global third party new investment in clean energyQ1 2004 – Q1 2009($bn)

41.2

37.6

32.5

28.4

28.3

24.4

23.9

23.7

22.7

19.6

14.9

13.3

11.6

11.2

8.6

8.3

7.4

5.6

4.3

3.5

3.1

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

'04

'04

'04

'04

'05

'05

'05

'05

'06

'06

'06

'06

'07

'07

'07

'07

'08

'08

'08

'08

'09

Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. 3rd party investment only (i.e. does not include corporate and government R&D, or small residential scale projects). Does not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

Source: New Energy Finance

[v9.04]

asoc new investment in clean energy q1 2004 q1 2009 bn
ASOC new investment in clean energyQ1 2004 – Q1 2009($bn)

7.2

6.7

6.9

6.4

6.0

5.6

4.5

4.1

3.8

3.8

2.8

2.3

1.8

1.8

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.5

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

'04

'04

'04

'04

'05

'05

'05

'05

'06

'06

'06

'06

'07

'07

'07

'07

'08

'08

'08

'08

'09

Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Financial sector investment only (i.e. Corporate and government R&D, & small residential scale projects not included). Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

Source: New Energy Finance

[v9.04]

slide6

Attitude to the environment and economy – Old School

It’s exciting when you have a real crisis on your hands, when you have spent half your political life dealing with humdrum issues like the environment…

Margaret Thatcher, 1982

5

slide7

Attitude to the environment and economy – New School

Finding the new driver of our economy is going to be critical. There is no better potential driver that pervades all aspects of our economy than a new energy economy…

Barack Obama, 2008

6

stimulus components targeted at clean energy
Stimulus components targeted at clean energy

By country

By type

Note: Estimates based on disclosed information, as of 18 May 2009. Percentages indicate percentage of total stimulus which is dedicated to clean energy. N/d indicates that the total stimulus sum was not disclosed.

Source: New Energy Finance, government agencies

[v9.02]

slide9

Merged/ Acquired

619

Reversion to local markets

344

Shift to short tenor lending

+4% to

+10%

-20%

to -30%

-9% to

-12%

- 23% to

- 40%

-4% to

-6%

Increase in RE lending

Net impact

Wind: top project finance lenders, EU-27, 2007 & 2008(€m and %)

Royal Bank of Scotland

1,977

European Investment Bank (EIB)

782

Nord LB

720

Grupo BBVA

Nordic Investment Bank (NIB)

592

HSH Nordbank

579

BNP Paribas

461

Fortis Bank SA/NV

412

UniCredit

387

ING Bank

383

Banco Espirito Santo

356

Grupo Santander

Banesto

307

Caja Madrid

307

Millennium BCP

305

Sabadell Bank Group

238

Credit Agricole SA

226

La Caixa de Barcelona (La Caixa)

224

Banque Federale des BP

216

Groupe Caisse d

216

’Epargne

Gruppo Banca Intesa

192

188

Commerzbank Group

Note: Project finance lending converted to EUR at constant rate of 0.78968 EUR to USD

Source: New Energy Finance

8

8

[v9.02]

cost of debt typical european wind farm
Cost of Debt, Typical European Wind Farm

Term Swap

Credit Insurance

Project Spread

ECB Rate

6M Euribor

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Jan

-

05

Jul

-

05

Jan

-

06

Jul

-

06

Jan

-

07

Jul

-

07

Jan

-

08

Jul

-

08

Jan

-

09

Notes: Data as of 27 May 2009; Term Swap: 8 year Euro swap rate.

Source: New Energy Finance; Bloomberg

9

weighted average silicon price for contracts before and after 30 september 2008 2008 2015 kg
Weighted average silicon price for contracts before and after 30 September 2008, 2008-2015: $/kg

198

135

145

100

88

107

94

75

72

83

67

58

70

67

60

55

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Prices in contracts as at end of Q4 2008

Prices in contracts as at end of Q3 2008

  • Contract prices have dropped since Q4 2008
  • High-priced silicon contracts have been renegotiated or cancelled
  • Latest silicon spot price is $60-90/kg and Chinese silicon price is on the low end.

Note: This is based on the results published in Issue III of New Energy Finance Silicon Forward Price Index. “As at end of Q4 2008” refers to contracts as they stood before 31 December 2008, some of which have since been renegotiated. ‘As at end of Q3 2008’ refers to contracts as they stood before 30 September 2008, some of which have since been renegotiated.

Source: New Energy Finance Silicon Price Survey, Issue III

slide12

$/W

6

Experience Curve for

retail prices

5

Historical retail price

data

-

Solarbuzz

4

44%

Overshoot

-

retail

3

Sustained high

-

profit

growth

2

Soft landing

-

retail

Chinese factory

-

gate

1

prices

0

Dec

-

02

Apr

-

04

Sep

-

05

Jan

-

07

Jun

-

08

Oct

-

09

Feb

-

11

The crystalline silicon module experience curve: $/W

Note: Retail prices are paid by the consumer, factory-gate by distributor. Updated as of February 2009. Construction of experience curve based on Maycock data for factory-gate prices to 1975, parameters fitted to monthly retail price curve of Solarbuzz data from December 2002.

Source: Solarbuzz, Maycock, SEC filings,

New Energy Finance

slide13
Figure 1. Levelised cost of energy for solar technology, with California investor-owned utility weighted average market electricity prices

Note: 8% return on capital, unlevered financing. 25-year project and contract life. Project-specific information attached in slides 3 and 4.

Source: New Energy Finance, 2009

12

biofuels new build asset investment waves bn
Biofuels: new build asset investment waves ($bn)

Other Feedstocks

9.3

Sugarcane

8.2

6.0

3.3

3.1

3.0

2.5

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.4

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Notes: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals.

Source: New Energy Finance

13

[v9.02]

biofuels next gen vc pe q4 2006 to q3 2008 investors and number of deals by country
Biofuels: Next-Gen VC/PE, Q4 2006 to Q3 2008(Investors and number of deals by country)

Note: Disclosed deals only

Source: New Energy Finance

global futures emissions scenarios and investment required
Global Futures Emissions Scenarios and Investment Required

CO2emissions from fuel combustion (Gtonnes per annum)

45

Base scenario with recession

2020 Peak Scenario

590

Base scenario without recession

2020 Peak Scenario

548

IEA Ref.

Global Futures Base Scenario

40

502

461

35

373

408

IEA 550 ppm

348

264

30

269

214

IEA 450 ppm

155

148

25

93

59

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

20

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Clean energy capital requirement per year: $bn

Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2009, IMF’s World Economic Outlook (January 2009), IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008.

Notes: The data refers specifically to CO2 from fuel combustion and not greenhouse gases.

15

[v9.02]

institutional investors clean energy investment intentions
Institutional investors’ clean energy investment intentions

Based on106

Institutions

with

$1tr AUM

Timber and

forestry

Venture

Capital

Agricultural

commodities

Expected allocation to clean energy investments by 2012

Expected change to clean energy allocations by 2012

More

Less

No change

Projects

57%

41%

More

75%

Public Equity

54%

40%

Carbon

50%

44%

Unchanged

22%

Private Equity

48%

48%

42%

55%

Less

3%

36%

54%

32%

65%

Source: New Energy Finance

16

[v9.01]

slide18

Briefing (newsletter)

Industry Intelligence (data & news)

Insight (research & analysis)

Carbon price forecasting

Carbon project analytics

Consulting & advisory

Executive workshops

New Energy Finance Summit

THANKS!

Michael LiebreichChairman and CEO

+44 20 7092 8803

www.newenergyfinance.com

www.newcarbonfinance.com

michael.liebreich@newenergyfinance.com

Renewable Energy, BiofuelsCarbon Markets

Energy Efficiency & Technology

Carbon Capture & Sequestration

Nuclear, Water