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Research Paper Presentation

Research Paper Presentation. Jennifer L. Spade English 102 May 5, 2004. Topic & Thesis Selection. Topic : Federal Reserve Board rate action. Topic Selected : March 31, 2004; political & educational interests; no change.

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Research Paper Presentation

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  1. Research Paper Presentation Jennifer L. Spade English 102 May 5, 2004

  2. Topic & Thesis Selection • Topic: Federal Reserve Board rate action. • Topic Selected: March 31, 2004; political & educational interests; no change. • Thesis: The Fed Reserve Board should wait to increase bank rates until we see a sustainable job growth above 200,000 for a 6-month composite plus other strong economic indicators. • Thesis Selected: April 7, 2004; political & economic interests; no change.

  3. Research Paper Structure • Introduction: Fed rates, from Wall St. to Main St. • Narration: job growth & inflation = rate increases. • Partition: March job growth could be a “false start,” we need to wait for sustainable numbers. • Argument: prior Fed actions had real job growth & inflation; not there yet. • Refutation: sharp rises in rates due to quick rise in inflation; no due to low wages & high productivity. • Conclusion: Fed has time to wait for real jobs #’s.

  4. Major Arguments • Raising rates prematurely could derail the economy • Stunt job recovery • Reduce capital investment & hiring • Cool the red-hot housing market • Slow consumer spending, thereby reducing GDP • Negatively impact emerging (global) economies • Decreased consumer confidence • Inflation is still low - Fed has time to wait (August)?

  5. Major Opposing Arguments • Economic indicators strong; jobs & retail sales but inflation is rising, act now with minor increases Response: March job growth could be a “false start.” Waiting a few months to make certain will provide solid evidence of the health of the U.S. economy. • Waiting too long could cause sharp rate increases - lessons from past (1994) • 7 fed fund rate increases in 12 months (3% to 6%) • Too aggressive; crushed financial markets Response: we don’t want to repeat actions taken in 1994, but the economic conditions are not comparable -- productivity is strong, and wages are flat -- both requiring time to adjust.

  6. Most Helpful BusinessWeek Associated Press Fed Chair testimony: 5/4 April jobs report - to be released 5/7- crucial Least Helpful Older publications Books Source Analysis

  7. Research Lessons Learned • Select a topic not as fluid as Fed rate actions; daily assessments of data can invalidate claim • Survey consumers for personal impact of claim • Began draft sooner

  8. Interesting Discoveries • In researching the economic conditions and the Fed actions, I feel confident in my understanding of the subject matter and challenges faced by Greenspan and Fed policymakers when trying to keep the U.S. economy in balance. • Using a systematic approach to writing a research paper decreased the likelihood of me being overwhelmed and increased my chances of finishing it.

  9. Research Timeline

  10. ? When Fed Chair Alan Greenspan speaks, we listen! Good news for now, no change in Fed rates.

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