Raven s rock and the tanawha trail
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Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha Trail. Sarah Dochow Andrew May Callie Safley. Purpose. Estimate Value Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources Investigate Factors Permit Ranger Presence Maintenance . Theory. Demand Curve

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Raven s rock and the tanawha trail l.jpg

Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha Trail

Sarah Dochow

Andrew May

Callie Safley


Purpose l.jpg
Purpose

  • Estimate Value

  • Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources

  • Investigate Factors

    • Permit

    • Ranger Presence

    • Maintenance


Theory l.jpg
Theory

  • Demand Curve

    • Created by putting trips on the horizontal axis and the travel cost on the vertical axis

  • Consumer surplus

    • Region below the demand curve and above the average price level


Theory5 l.jpg
Theory

$

ΔCS

CS

TRIPS


Method l.jpg
Method

  • Random Interviews

    • At or near Tanawha Trail and Raven’s Rock

    • Hypothetical questions used to establish shifts in the demand curve

  • Demand curve

    • Derived from interview responses

  • Confirmed confidentiality

    • Made results available if requested


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Data

  • Sample size = 38 people

  • Average Number of Trips to Tanawha Trail

    • 3.13 ± 0.67

  • Average Number of Trips to Raven’s Rock

    • 1.907 ± 0.464


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Data (cont.)

  • Average Willingness to Pay for hiking permit

    • $7.59

    • SD = $10.81

  • Average Travel Cost (.36*roundtrip distance)

    • $79.08

    • SD = $113.76


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Data (cont.)

  • 63% were male participants

  • Average Education level was 3.5 years of college

  • Average age was 34

  • 74% were willing to pay for a permit


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Statistical Results

  • We took the natural log of RP-trips and add one to get the values for the horizontal axis: ln(trips+1)

  • We had travel cost on the vertical axis calculated by: (.36*roundtrip distance)

  • We had three possible demand shifters but only one was statistically significant at the 92% level: (1-pvalue)= (1-.08)=.92




Consumer surplus l.jpg
Consumer Surplus

  • Consumer Surplus

  • Semi-log: –x/b; where x = Number of Trips, b = travel cost coefficient

  • b = -.0015

  • Number of trips to Ravens Rock: x = 1.908; CS = 1.908/.0015 = $1272

  • Number of trips to Ravens Rock with the quality improvement: Δx = 1.36; ΔCS = 1.36/.0015 = $908


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Aggregate CS

  • Individual ΔCS = $908

  • Population of 5 counties = 903,568

  • We assume that 5% are hikers (Outdoor Recreation Participation Study)

  • Aggregate ΔCS = 41,021,987.2


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Analysis

  • Major Factor

    • People are more concerned with trail maintenance than costs

  • Bias

    • People live in these locations due to the fact that they enjoy activities, like hiking

  • Improvement for further Research

    • Larger sample size

    • More diversity among survey participants


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