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Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology. Mary-Beth Schreck , L. David Williams, and Kenneth R. Cook. Aviation Forecast Climatology Studies. BUFKIT: Forecasting Wind and Wind Gusts from Momentum Transport Winds Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Snow

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thunderstorm ceiling visibility climatology

Thunderstorm Ceiling/Visibility Climatology

Mary-Beth Schreck, L. David Williams, and Kenneth R. Cook

aviation forecast climatology studies
Aviation Forecast Climatology Studies
  • BUFKIT: Forecasting Wind and Wind Gusts from Momentum Transport Winds
  • Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Snow
  • Thunderstorm Climatologies in Various Forms
  • Fog Climatologies
  • Observed Visibility and Ceiling During Thunderstorms
    • Verification Suffers in Summer
slide3
Goal
  • Since convective season is when verification suffers (cig/vsby):

Give forecasters some probabilities of occurrence based on climatology

process and results
Process and Results
  • For the 30 year period ending 2006, found all observations with TS for April – August for KRSL, KSLN, KICT, KCNU
  • From these, found # of occurrences (hours) for each station for the following visibility categories (SM):
    • <0.5
    • 0.5 – <1.0
    • 1.0 - <2.0
    • 2.0 - <3.0
    • 3.0 – 5.0
    • >5.0
  • Found % of each category (i.e. How many times does each occur) as % of total of all TSRA Fog obs
    • These were done for each station for each month
process and results7
Process and Results
  • At this point, we have isolated TS obs that contain a MVFR or lower visibility. Using these data we then determined how many of these contained a MVFR or lower ceiling.
    • These were plotted as a percentage of the total number of TS obs w/ MVFR vsby (i.e. with a ceiling)
process and results9
Process and Results
  • Out of these (the ceilings that are below 3000 ft.):
    • Found maximum, minimum, 1st and 3rd quartiles for each visibility category by station by month.
  • Plotted results as “box and whiskers” plot
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Visibilities gradually increased through the season
    • By July: 75-80% of TS obs had visibilities >5SM.
  • TS w/ MVFR or lower visibilities that contained a MVFR ceiling also decreased through the season.
  • By July, it was a statistically “rare” event to have MVFR ceiling and visibility with a thunderstorm.
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