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The Targeted Turnout Strategy: Lessons from Passage of the Transit Tax in St. Louis County

The Targeted Turnout Strategy: Lessons from Passage of the Transit Tax in St. Louis County . Todd Swanstrom and David Kimball, University of Missouri-St. Louis Transit Initiatives and Communities Conference, St. Louis, Missouri J. Surprising Victory in April 2010 Two earlier defeats:

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The Targeted Turnout Strategy: Lessons from Passage of the Transit Tax in St. Louis County

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  1. The Targeted Turnout Strategy: Lessons from Passage of the Transit Tax in St. Louis County Todd Swanstrom and David Kimball, University of Missouri-St. Louis Transit Initiatives and Communities Conference, St. Louis, Missouri J The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  2. Surprising Victory in April 2010 Two earlier defeats: 1997: Lost 58-42 2008: Lost 52-48 2010: Wins 63-37 Economic Recession High Unemployment Tea Party Anti-Tax Movement The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  3. Two Characteristics Make the 2010 Victory Even More Surprising Off-Year Election • Votes on Prop M (2008) and Prop A (2010) The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  4. 2. Lack of unified business support Civic Progress opposes an April 2010 tax initiative: 1. October 2009 Poll: 55% support for a transit tax 2. Negative image of Metro (cost overruns) 3. Poor economy The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  5. What’s Up? How was St. Louis able to overcome obstacles and achieve a historic victory for transit? The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  6. Prop A Campaign Three-Pronged Campaign: 1. Educational Campaign (CMT) 2. Political Campaign (Advance St. Louis) 3. Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) Campaign The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  7. 1. Educational Campaign • CMT ($300,000) and St. Clair County Transit ($100,000) • Hiring of R&R Partners (Salt Lake City) The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  8. 2. Political Campaign: Advance St. Louis • 40-Member Steering Committee • Co-Chairs: Chancellor Mark Wrighton (Washington University) and Donald Suggs, St. Louis American • Chose John Nations (Rep. Mayor of Chesterfield) to Lead Campaign The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  9. Contributions in Support of Public Transit Initiatives in 2008 & 2010 (Dollar Amount and Percent of Total) • Note: Figures are based on campaign reports filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  10. 3. GOTV Campaign Greater St. Louis Transit Alliance (coalition of 50+ organizations) Independent Student Campaign Targeted GOTV Campaign The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  11. Student Campaign • Multi-campus • Social Media: 5,000 on Facebook; 500 changed their picture on Facebook to “Vote April 6” emblazoned over Metro logo • Blogging and twitter to as a rapid response to critics of Prop A • Counter-cultural campaign style • Tee-shirt painting parties • Cookies on election day the shape of buses with Metro logo • “Miss MetroLink”: Liz Kramer • Transit flash mob dance on Wash U. campus The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  12. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  13. Targeted Turnout Strategy Scientific consensus: Increasing turnout requires face-to-face contacts (Gerber and Green, 2008) The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  14. Geographical targeting The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  15. GOTV Activities Targeted media buys, direct mail Door hangers Rallies: unions, churches (MCU), civil rights groups Phone banking (SEIU) “Ninety-five percent of the phone banking and door-to-door outreach was done by them [volunteers].” Tom Shrout The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  16. Little money spent on GOTV effort Expenditures Paid to Support Public Transit Initiatives in 2008 & 2010 (Percent of Total) • Note: Figures are based on campaign reports filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  17. Did the Targeted Turnout Strategy Work? • Turnout in April 2010 was about 50% higher than average April turnout. • Was that due to the GOTV campaign? The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  18. Data: County Voter History File • List of all registered voters (roughly 800,000) • Identifies who voted in April 2010 election • Model of turnout in April 2010 controlling for: • Voting history • Other competitive campaigns (schools, mayors) • Demographics (age, income, race) • Campaign target • Media (direct mail, cable TV) • Phone bank The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  19. Estimated Impact of Ad Campaign on Turnout The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  20. Estimated Impact of Phone Bank on Turnout The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  21. Prop A Campaign Impact on Turnout • Prop A campaign had a bigger impact on the turnout of infrequent voters. • Overall, the campaign boosted turnout by an estimated 18,000 voters. • The Prop A campaign shaped the composition of the electorate. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  22. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  23. Lesson #1: Civic initiatives should not be controlled by big business (or any other single element of the community) but by a broad coalition that stretches across economic, racial, and civic divides, and engages citizens who are directly affected by the issue and care the most about it. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  24. Lesson #2: Well-designed GOTV efforts with large numbers of volunteers can increase turnout among supporters without mobilizing opponents. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

  25. Lesson #3: Off-cycle elections with low turnout can offer an advantage to organized coalitions, such as transit supporters. The Targeted Turnout Strategy

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