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CRITICAL DESIGN REVIEW NPP MICROWAVE SOUNDER-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS (NTCP) MARCH 13, 2012 PRESENTED BY: ANDREA SCHUMACHER 1 , MARK DEMARIA 2 , LIMIN ZHAO 3 1. CIRA / COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY 2. NOAA/NESIDS/STAR/RAMMB 3. NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO. Outline. Introduction DeMaria

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slide1

CRITICAL DESIGN REVIEWNPP MICROWAVE SOUNDER-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS (NTCP)MARCH 13, 2012PRESENTED BY:ANDREA SCHUMACHER1, MARK DEMARIA2, LIMIN ZHAO31. CIRA / COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY2. NOAA/NESIDS/STAR/RAMMB3. NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO

outline
Outline
  • IntroductionDeMaria
  • PDR Risk and Actions Zhao
  • Requirements Schumacher
  • Operations Concept Zhao
  • Algorithm Theoretical Basis Schumacher
  • Software Architecture & Interfaces Schumacher
  • Quality Assurance Zhao
  • Risks and Actions DeMaria
  • Summary and Conclusions DeMaria

NTCP Critical Design Review

slide3
Introduction

Presented

by

Mark Demaria

(STAR/CIRA)

NTCP Critical Design Review

introduction
Introduction
  • Project Background
  • Project Objective
  • Integrated Product Team
  • Stakeholders
  • Project Plan
  • CDR entry / exit criteria

NTCP Critical Design Review

slide5

PROJECT OBJECTIVES

  • Provide TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. The products include:
    • Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimates
      • Maximum surface wind
      • Minimum sea level pressure
    • Radii of 34, 50, 64 kt winds in 4 quadrants relative to the storm center
    • Balanced horizontal winds from 1000 to 200 mb within 600km of the storm center

NTCP Critical Design Review

integrated product team
Integrated product team
  • IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria (STAR)
  • IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao (OSPO)
  • NESDIS Team:
    • STAR: Mark DeMaria, John Knaff
    • OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC Products PAL)
    • OSD: Tom Schott
    • Data Center: Phil Jones
    • Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Jiande Wang (SSAI), Hazari Syed (SSAI)
  • User Team
    • Lead: Michael Brennan and Jack Beven (NWS/NHC)
  • Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP
  • Other Ops Involved: Soundings, Precipitation

NTCP Critical Design Review

project stakeholders o m
PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS – O & M
  • OSPO Products Area Lead – Liqun Ma
  • OSPO QA Lead – Zhaohui Cheng
  • Operational Implementation and Maintenance Team
    • Hazari Syed
    • Jiande Wang
  • Science Maintenance Team
    • Mark DeMaria
    • Andrea schumacher

NTCP Critical Design Review

project stakeholders users
PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS – USERS
  • National Hurricane Center
    • Michael Brennan (michael.j.brennan@noaa.gov)
    • Jack Beven (john.l.beven@noaa.gov)
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center
    • Edward Fukada (edward.fukada@navy.mil)
  • Central Pacific Hurricane Center
  • Satellite Analysis Branch
    • Mike Turk (michael.turk@noaa.gov)

NTCP Critical Design Review

project plan tasks 1 3
Project plaN: Tasks (1/3)
  • Year 1 (May 2011- Apr 2012)
    • IPT Lead informed to begin product development
    • Begin adapting current AMSU algorithms to MIRS retrieval datasets
    • NPP launch, begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones

NTCP Critical Design Review

project plan tasks 2 3
Project plan: Tasks (2/3)
  • Year 2 (May 2012- Apr 2013)
    • Begin collecting MIRS ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures, for global tropical cyclones (collecting sample cases, real-time ingest expected to be available Jul 2013)
    • Identify Initial Archive Requirements
    • Define Quality Monitoring Concept
    • Define Long-term Maintenance Concept
    • Conduct Preliminary Design Review
    • Define development processing system
    • Process test case
    • Conduct Critical Design Review
    • Identify final archive requirements identified
    • Develop pre-ops retrieval algorithms (using available NPP ATMS sounding test cases)
    • Prepare code for implementation

NTCP Critical Design Review

project plan tasks 3 3
Project plan tasks (3/3)
  • Year 3 (May 2013- Apr 2014)
    • Conduct Software Code Review
    • Deliver Algorithm Package to NDE
    • Test and evaluate NTCP DAP within NDE SADIE, make algorithm adjustments
    • Run NTCP on the NDE System Integration for 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
    • Transition code to operations
    • Complete all documentation
    • Brief SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status
    • Brief SPSRB capability is ready to go operational
    • SPSRB declares product operational
      • SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages
      • OSD updates Satellite Products database

NTCP Critical Design Review

project plan schedule
Project Plan: Schedule
  • Schedule (key milestones):
    • Preliminary Design Review – July 2012  Oct 16, 2012
    • Critical Design Review – Mar 2013  Mar 13, 2013
    • Software Review – May 2013
    • System Readiness Review – July 2013
    • SPSRB Briefing – Aug 2013
    • Operations Commence – Aug 2013

NTCP Critical Design Review

project plan stakeholder involvement
PROJECT PLAN: STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT
  • Development Team
    • Coding and documentation
    • Quality assurance
    • Data verification and validation
    • Configuration Management
  • Operation and Maintenance
    • Code Acceptance
    • Running system
    • Interface with operations
    • Monitoring
    • Distribution
  • Users
    • Supply customer request
    • Review project development
    • Archive data
    • Communicate with development team

NTCP Critical Design Review

c dr entry criteria
CDR Entry Criteria
  • PDR Report
  • Review of the NPP ATMS-based TC Products Project:
    • Requirements
    • Operations Concept
    • Software Architecture & Interfaces
    • Product Monitoring
    • Quality Assurance
    • Risks and Actions

NTCP Critical Design Review

c dr exit criteria
CDR Exit Criteria
  • CritericalDesign Review Report
    • The CDR Report (CDRR) will be compiled before the SRR
    • The report will contain:
      • Actions
      • Comments
      • CDR presentation

NTCP Critical Design Review

slide16
PDR Risks and ActionsPresented

by

Limin Zhao

(NESDIS/OSPO)

NTCP Critical Design Review

risks and actions
Risks and Actions
  • Risk 1: MiRS retrieval limitations may cause product degradations
  • Risk Assessment:Preliminary validation of AMSU MiRS data show temperature/moisture retrievals don’t always converge near storm center
  • Impact:If too many soundings are not available near the storm center, product accuracy will be degraded
  • Likelihood:It is likely that some ATMS MiRS retrievals will be missing near the storm center. The impact on the product is unknown. Based on AMSU results, the most likely outcome is that the MiRS retrievals will provide tropical cyclone products of comparable accuracy to the current version with statistical retrievals.
  • Mitigation:
    • Work with MIRS development team to improve MiRS retrieval in cloudy regions if necessary
  • Status:Open

NTCP Critical Design Review

risk and actions
Risk and Actions
  • Review Item 1: Please confirm the archive request with users, and send an archive request to NCDC after the request is validated
  • Action:Confirmed the archive request for the balance wind product, and submitted the archive initiative to NCDC
  • Status:Closed

NTCP Critical Design Review

risk and actions1
Risk and Actions
  • Review Item 2: The S-NPP TC algorithm should run within NDE vs the Linux VMWare machines within ESPC. Explain why the S-NPP TC algorithm is not being proposed to run within NDE. This issue needs to resolved between the Project Leads and Jim Silva (NDE Project Manager) quickly because there is not very much time between now and CDR. Recommend you explain pros/cons for running applications with VMWarevs NDE from a cost, schedule, performance and technical perspectives.
  • Action:A write-up was prepared and submitted to the NDE project manager for evaluation, which explains pros/cons for running applications with VMWare at ESPC vs NDE from a cost, schedule, performance and technical perspectives. The NDE team provided feedback after evaluation, and still recommended the implementation be done at NDE.
  • Status:Closed

NTCP Critical Design Review

risk and actions2
Risk and Actions
  • Review Item 3: The requirements section need be enhanced to include more detailed information.
  • Action:Added more details on the distribution and monitoring requirements.
  • Status:Closed

NTCP Critical Design Review

slide21
RequirementsPresented

by

Andrea Schumacher

(STAR/CIRA)

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements
Requirements
  • Create and distribute NPP Microwave-based Tropical Cyclone Products
    • Ingest MIRS NPP ATMS sounding data, GFS analyses, and ATCF current TC positions
    • Create intensity and structure estimates and TC-environment 2D balanced wind fields
  • Benefit to user
    • Continuity and potential improvement of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters
  • Impact if not done
    • Disruptions to AMSU sounding data will result in disruptions of these TC guidance products used by NHC and JTWC. The improved capabilities ATMS will not be fully utilized by NHC and JTWC operations.
  • NOAA Mission Goal supported
    • Weather and Water
    • Commerce and Transportation

NTCP Critical Design Review

capabilities assessment
Capabilities assessment

NTCP Critical Design Review

delivery and archive
Delivery and archive
  • Provide NPP ATMS-based TC Products (NTCP) within 3 hours of synoptic time
  • Provide NPP ATMS-based TC
    • Intensity estimates
    • Surface wind radii estimates (R34, R50, R64)
    • TC environment 2D balanced winds (text and image)
  • Deliver text and image products to users via ESPC DDS
  • Also deliver text and image products to users via OSPO ftp or http site
    • Includes ATCF-format text products and text intermediate files
    • Required by ATCF and NCEP Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis products
  • Deliver NPP ATMS-based TC text products to CLASS for archiving
    • Intensity estimates, radii estimates, 2D balanced winds, and r-z variable text files
    • Intensity and surface wind radii estimates will be incorporated in the ATCF text products, which are independently archived as well

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements spsrb
requirements: spsrb
  • The NTCP development project shall adopt the standard practices of the SPSRB Review Board

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements user request
Requirements: user request
  • SPSRB User Request #1009-0017 submitted by NHC
    • Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation.
  • Accuracy
    • Same or better than current AMSU-based products
    • MAE ≤ 13.5 kt / 9 hPA for intensity estimates
    • MAE ≤ 32, 18, 10 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively.
  • Latency
    • Available 3 hours or less after synoptic time
  • Timeliness
    • Run every 6 hours at synoptic time (0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC)
    • Updated every 2 hours

NTCP Critical Design Review

basic requirements ingest 1 3
Basic requirements: ingest (1/3)
  • NCEP GFS analyses and forecasts
    • 1-degree global analysis data file
    • grib1 or grib2 format
    • Run every 6 hours at 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC
    • Required as soon as data is available after each run time (typically 3-4 hours after synoptic time)
    • Required inside NDE system environment (ESPC DDS)

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements ingest 2 3
requirements: ingest (2/3)
  • MIRS ATMS temperature and moisture profile retrievals
    • Required as soon as MIRS processing is complete (est. < 3 hours after pass)
    • Required inside NDE system environment (direct pull from MIRS production system)

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements ingest 3 3
requirements: ingest (3/3)
  • Current ATCF TC positions and intensities
    • Need current b-decks (official TC positions)
    • Need current a-decks (official TC forecast positions)
    • ATCF a-decks and b-decks are regularly updated every 6 hours at 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC
    • ATCF a-decks and b-decks are occasionally updated at intermediate times
    • Required within one hour of update time  recommend hourly or twice-hourly refresh
    • Required inside NDE system environment (ESPC DDS)

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements environment
requirements: environment
  • The NTCP shall be able to run in the Development Environment in NDE
    • Processing code written in Fortran 90
    • Processing scripts written in Bash, Perl and Python
  • The NTCP shall be implemented to run in the NDE Operational Environment
    • Processing code written in Fortran 90
    • Processing scripts written in Bash, Perl and Python

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements metadata
requirements: metadata
  • The NTCP shall generate metadata for products
    • Metadata text files will be written
    • Metadata will include overall quality and summary level metadata
    • Will coordinate with the Product Monitoring Project

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements qc 1 2
requirements: qc (1/2)
  • The NTCP shall have QC monitoring capability
    • Product files shall include overall quality control flags and quality summary level metadata
  • The NTCP shall be capable of monitoring input data latency and overall quality
    • Need to create code for generating metadata
    • Need to import metadata from input data files
  • The NTCP shall be capable of monitoring product latency
    • Run status file will include processing time
  • The NTCP shall produce real-time imagery for visual inspection of output files
    • Will be done with Python

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements qc 2 2
requirements: qc (2/2)
  • The NTCP shall be capable of monitoring product distribution status to ensure that the data/products are successfully available for transfer to the user community
    • A run status file will be produced
    • Will work with OSPO to determine needs
  • Each run status file shall include all runtime error messages
    • Will include system messages and error conditions written by the code
  • Each run status file shall indicate whether or no the run was completed without error
    • Code will write message, will be the last message in file so operators can find it easily
  • The NTCP shall write a log file for each production run
    • Used by OSPO for QC monitoring and troubleshooting.

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements development 1 2
requirements: development (1/2)
  • The NTCP developers shall produce a fully functional pre-operational system in the STAR Development Environment (CIRA)
  • Development environment shall include
    • Linux machine with 50 GB of disk storage
    • GNU Fortran 90 compiler
    • Bash, Perl
    • Python v2.6 or 2.7
    • GrADS, gnuplot, ImageMagick
    • Java, JavaScripts
    • Wgrib2
    • Python libraries (Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Basemap, netCDF4)
    • Fortran 90 libraries (zlib(1.2.7), hdf(1.8.9), netCDF(4.1.3)
    • **CIRA Development environment capable of all of the above

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements development 2 2
requirements: development (2/2)
  • Development environment shall be capable of
    • Hosting the conversion of NTCP science code to NCTP pre-operational code
    • Hosting unit tests and a system test
    • Accessing input data
      • ATMS retrievals (pull from MiRS production machine from within NDE)
      • a/b-decks, GFS analyses (DDS)
    • Hosting the pre-operational system
    • **CIRA Development environment capable of all of the above

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements pre operations 1 3
requirements: pre-operations (1/3)
  • Development Environment shall host the pre-operational system
  • Pre-operational system shall include everything necessary to conduct unit tests, including
      • processing code and ancillary files
      • input test data
    • Complete unit test of the pre-operational system is expected before delivery to NDE
    • The UTR will provide a detailed description of the source code units and ancillary files
  • Pre-operational system shall include everything necessary to conduct system test, including
      • processing code and ancillary files
      • input test data
    • Complete unit test of the pre-operational system is expected before delivery to NDE
    • The SRR will provide a detailed description of the processing software system and ancillary files

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements pre operations 2 3
requirements: pre-operations (2/3)
  • The NTCP integrated pre-operational system shall be transitioned from the STAR Development Environment (CIRA) to the NDE Test Environment
  • Pre-operational system shall include processing code, ancillary files, and all input test data necessary to conduct system test
    • Complete unit test of the pre-operational system is expected before delivery to NDE
    • The SRR will provide a detailed description of the processing software system and ancillary files
  • Pre-operational system shall include output data produced by system test
    • Needed by NDE to verify system test in its Test Environment
    • Comparison of outputs from system test in STAR and NDE environments will be part of the NDE system test
    • Specific items will be listed in the SRR

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements pre operations 3 3
requirements: pre-operations (3/3)
  • The NTCP development team shall set up an FTP site for transferring the integrated pre-operational system to NDE as a Delivered Algorithm Package (DAP)
  • The NTCP development team shall ensure that the NDE PAL has the information needed to acquire the NTCP from the FTP site

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements documentation 1 2
requirements: documentation (1/2)
  • STAR shall deliver NTCP document package to OSPO.
  • Document package will include
    • README text file that lists each item in the final pre-operational system baseline, including code, test data, and documentation
    • Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD)
    • Requirements Allocation Document (RAD)
    • System Maintenance Manual (SMM)
    • External Users Manual (EUM)
    • Internal Users Manual (IUM)
    • Critical Design Document (CDD)
    • Code Test Document (CTD)
    • System Readiness Document (SRD)
    • System Readiness Review Report (SRRR)
      • Documents approved readiness of NTCP system for transition to operations

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements documentation 2 2
requirements: documentation (2/2)
  • Document package will include a Review Item Disposition (RID) document
    • Describes final status of all development project tasks, work products, and risks
    • Supports the final System Readiness Review Report (SRRR)

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements it security
requirements: it security
  • The NTCP system shall comply with OSPO Code Review Security checklists, including
    • OSPO data integrity checklist
    • OSPO development security checklist
    • OSPO code checklist

NTCP Critical Design Review

requirements interface
requirements: INTERFACE
  • The NDE Linux machines that hosts the NTCP system shall establish the following access interfaces:
    • DDS to pull the GFS and TC positions
    • NDE AIX machine to pull the MiRS sounding profiles
    • ESPC Product Monitoring System

NTCP Critical Design Review

basic requirements operations
Basic requirements: operations
  • The NTCP developers shall specify IT resource needs for operations
    • Linux Redhat v6 machine with 50 GB of disk storage
    • 100 mb RAM
    • GNU Fortran 90 compiler
    • Bash, Perl
    • Python v2.6 or 2.7
    • GrADS, gnuplot, ImageMagick
    • Java, JavaScripts
    • Wgrib2
    • Python libraries (Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Basemap, netCDF4)
    • Fortran 90 libraries (zlib(1.2.7), hdf(1.8.9), netCDF(4.1.3)

NTCP Critical Design Review

basic requirements dissemination
basic requirements: Dissemination
  • Product Dissemination
    • NTCP output data will delivered to users via ESPC DDS
    • Text outputs
      • TC intensity estimates
      • Surface wind radii estimates (R34, R50 and R64)
      • 2-d balance winds
      • Intermediate text files (analysis statistics, 2D balance T and, r-z variables, ASCII retrieval data, and swath lat/lon)
    • Image outputs
      • 2-d balance winds
    • TC intensity and surface wind radii estimates will be integrated into Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system.
      • Provide text outputs, including ATCF-format output, on OSPO ftp or http site
      • ATCF will ftp pull from OSPO ftp/http site

NTCP Critical Design Review

slide45
Operations Concept

Presented

byLimin Zhao

NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO

NTCP Critical Design Review

operations concept overview
Operations Concept - Overview
  • Interact with the customers/users to ensure the proposed algorithm/system design is consistent with their concept of operations documented in the SPSRB user request
  • Provide answers to the following questions based on the customer/user needs and expectations and production constraints
    • What is the product?
    • Why is this product being produced?
    • How will this product be used?
    • How should this product be produced (operational scenario)?
  • The operations concept will be refined by the NTCP IPT, in consultation with the customers/users, as the product solution and design are matured through the development phase.

NTCP Critical Design Review

npp tc products users
NPP TC Products Users
  • The product requirements are originated from NWS through the SPSRB user request (#1009-0017), whose primary users include:
    • National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
    • Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) & Dept. of Defense
    • NWS Offices

NTCP Critical Design Review

what is the product
What is the Product?
  • Tropical Cyclone intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds from the NPP ATMS
  • Specific Requirements from users

NTCP Critical Design Review

why are the products being produced
Why Are The Products Being Produced?
  • Current operational TC products are available from NOAA-15/16/18
  • Users need the operational capability for TC products from the NPP/JPSS satellites in supporting the continuity of operation
  • The products will be produced using the MiRS ATMS temperature retrievals

NTCP Critical Design Review

how will the products be used
How Will The Products Be Used?
  • The NPP TC products will be used at NHC, JTWC, CPHC and WMO RSMCs for the diagnosis of tropical cyclone including intensity, size and warm/cold core structures
  • The NPP TC products will be integrated into ATCF for users to access.

NTCP Critical Design Review

how should the products be produced 1 6
How Should The Products Be Produced? (1/6)
  • Satellite Data for Product Generation
    • ATMS-based temperature and moisture profiles from MiRS (netCDF4)
  • Ancillary Data for Product Generation
    • ATCF TC positions provided by NHC and JTWC
    • GFS Analysis from NCEP
  • Ancillary Data for Product Validation
    • Hurricane flight reconnaissance intensities and wind radii (ground truth)
    • AMSU-derived products

NTCP Critical Design Review

how should the products be produced 2 6
How Should The Products Be Produced? (2/6)
  • There will be three distinct environments
    • Development Environment (CIRA, Linux)
      • Development and testing of pre-operational codes on Redhat Linux OS
    • Test environment (NDE, Linux)
      • Pre-operational code (DAP) received from CIRA will be tested on the designated dev/test machine and modified as needed before it is promoted to operation
    • Operation Environment (NDE/ESPC, Linux)
      • Operational DAP will be run to generate the products on the designated production machine at NDE/ESPC and the products will be distributed to users through ESPC distribution system (DDS) and OSPO ftp/http (required for ATCF and Multi-platform Surface Wind Product)

NTCP Critical Design Review

how should the products be produced 3 6
How Should The Products Be Produced? (3/6)
  • Coverage
    • Global Ocean
  • Formats
    • ASCII, netCDF4
  • Latency
    • 3 hours after satellite pass
    • Run time ~ 30 seconds per active TC
  • Resolution
    • Point values for intensity and radii where storms exist
    • 0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds
  • Products
    • Tropical cyclone maximum wind
    • Minimum sea level pressure
    • Radii of 34, 50, 64 kt winds in 4 quadrants relative to the storm center
    • Balanced horizontal winds from 1000 to 200 mb within 600km of the storm center

NTCP Critical Design Review

how should the products be produced 4 6
How Should The Products Be Produced? (4/6)
  • Production and Delivery Scenarios
    • NTCP will pull the NPP MiRS SND products from the NDE production machine following the existing data access protocol
    • NTCP will pull the required ancillary data from the ESPC DDS following the existing data access protocol
    • The TC products will be generated in ASCII and netCDF4 formats, and send to the ESPC DDS for distribution
    • The users will be granted access to the ESPC distribution system through the data access request submission process.
    • ESPC will handle the distribution of the NPP TC products
    • The NPP TC text products, including ATCF-format text products, will also be hosted on OSPO ftp/http site
      • Required for incorporation of NTCP into ATCF
      • Required for Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis

NTCP Critical Design Review

how should the products be produced 5 6
How Should The Products Be Produced? (5/6)
  • Production Monitoring and Maintenance Scenarios
    • NDE is expected to provide tools to monitor the input data latency, the product process performance, product latency, and send email alerts when an error occurs
    • The NTCP algorithm will provide overall quality control flags and quality summary level information for the TC products quality monitoring
    • Offline statistic comparison with NHC best track intensity and radii estimates for cases within 3 hrs of aircraft fix
    • The TC PAL and maintenance personnel at OSPO will monitor the product quality and will coordinate with the STAR/CIRA scientists for any product quality issues

NTCP Critical Design Review

how should the products be produced 6 6
How Should The Products Be Produced? (6/6)
  • Production Archival Scenarios
    • The TC intensity/structure products will be provided to NHC as a text bulletin in Automated Tropical Cyclone Format (ATCF) and will be archived there (same as current AMSU products).
    • TC balanced winds products has been proposed to archive at NCDC, and a Data Submission Agreement will be developed and submitted to NCDC/CLASS for it.
    • Local archive requires to keep 3 ~7 days worth of data for real-time use

NTCP Critical Design Review

slide57
Algorithm Theoretical Basis

Presented by

Andrea Schumacher

(STAR/CIRA)

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview science description
ALGORITHM OVERVIEW –SCIENCE DESCRIPTION

Downward

Hydrostatic

Integration to z = 0

Statistical

Bias

Correction*

Symmetric

Average

Gradient

Wind

Equation

MIRS

T(x,y,P)

q(x,y,P)

GFS

Z(x,y,P100)

Vmax

R34

R50

R64

(x,y,P)

Ps(x,y)

V(r,P)

Vs(r)

(r,P)

Ps(r)

Nonlinear Balance Equation

V(x,y,P)

Vs(x,y)

*Only the statistical bias correction step is changed from AMSU to ATMS

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview science description1
algorithm overview: Science description
  • ATMS-based TC products will be based on AMSU-based algorithm already in operations at NCEP
  • Intensity estimates (operational since 2003)
    • Uses combination of AMSU-based soundings, the hydrostatic relationship, and statistics
    • Described in
      • Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 1573-1581.
      • Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2004: Validation of an advanced microwave sounder unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm, J. App. Met., 43, 282-296.
  • Wind radii estimates (operational since 2005)
    • Estimated from 2-D winds created by AMSU-derived height field and solving non-linear balance equations
    • Described in
      • Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit: Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 45,399-415.

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview science maturity
algorithm overview: Science maturity
  • NOAA-15/16/18 AMSU-based balanced wind algorithms have been running operationally since 2005. Algorithm and validation details are provided in:
    • Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit: Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 45,399-415.

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview benefits
Algorithm overview - benefits
  • Algorithm updates
    • Use of operational MIRS sounding products
      • Replaces Goldberg/Barnett statistical retrievals from AMSU
      • Will eliminate duplication of efforts in generating retrievals
    • Current Cal/Val project at CIRA has being evaluated impacts of this change
    • Goal is that increased resolution of ATMS (vs. AMSU) will provide more accurate estimates of TC intensity and structure
    • Adding another source of polar orbiting satellite microwave-based TC intensity and structure estimates will complement the existing AMSU-based products to improve the overall latency and availability of the NESDIS microwave-based TC products suite.

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview preliminary validation plan
algorithm overview: preliminary validation plan
  • Validation plan
    • Compare ATMS-derived intensity estimates and wind radii to
      • AMSU-derived products
      • Hurricane flight reconnaissance intensities and wind radii (ground truth)
    • ATMS-based products expected to exceed current AMSU-based products
      • Improved horizontal resolution

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview preliminary validation plan1
algorithm overview: preliminary validation plan
  • MIRS Implementation Delayed AMSU to ATMS Algorithm Conversion
  • Pre-operational ATMS MIRS Datasets Recently obtained from Kevin Garrett (NESDIS/STAR)
    • Four week periods from 2012 when multiple TCs were present around the global
  • Results will be matched up with AMSU results for new statistical bias correction for ATMS
  • ATMS and AMSU intensity estimates will be compared to best track

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview preliminary validation plan2
algorithm overview: preliminary validation plan
  • 19 Tropical cyclones in 4 basins (AL, EP, WP, IO)
  • 101 storm days

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview preliminary validation plan3
algorithm overview: preliminary validation plan
  • ATMS resolves warm core better than AMSU
  • More accurate wind retrievals expected

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

algorithm overview anomaly correction procedure
algorithm overview: Anomaly Correction Procedure
  • TC algorithm relies on MIRS retrievals
  • MIRS anomaly monitoring should address TC algorithm anomalies
  • 2013 season TC retrievals will be validated in the post season
  • Initial algorithm based on fairly small TC sample
  • Algorithm will be re-derived with 2013 data
  • Coefficient update might be required before 2014 season

Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

slide67
Software Architecture & Interfaces

Presented

by

Andrea Schumacher

(STAR/CIRA)

NTCP Critical Design Review

system design
System design
  • Languages and tools
    • GNU Fortran 90 compiler
    • Bash, Perl
    • Python v2.6 or 2.7
    • GrADS, gnuplot, ImageMagick
    • Java, JavaScripts
    • Wgrib2
    • Python libraries (Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Basemap, netCDF4)
    • Fortran 90 libraries (zlib(1.2.7), hdf(1.8.9), netCDF(4.1.3)
  • Source of code
    • CIRA/CSU (most written in-house following the SPSRB F90 guidelines)

NTCP Critical Design Review

system design cont
SYSTEM DESIGN (CONT…)
  • Directory Structure
    • Use standard OPS directory structure
      • /bin
        • Contains compiled executables
      • /data
        • Contains input and output data files
      • /logs
        • Contains all log files
      • /scripts
        • Contains all script files
      • /setup
        • Contains configuration and setup files
      • /src
        • Contains all source code

NTCP Critical Design Review

system design cont1
SYSTEM DESIGN (CONT…)
  • Input data and formats
    • NCEP GFS analysis (packed ASCII, 1-degree grid)
    • MIRS ATMS vertical temperature and moisture profiles (netCDF4)
    • TC positions and intensities (text a-deck and b-deck files)
  • Ancillary data and auxiliary files
    • Statistical algorithm coefficient data files (text)
  • Output files and format
    • TC intensity and radii (text)
    • Balanced wind (netCDf4 and gif)
    • Intermediate files (text)
  • Run schedules
    • New runs every 6 hours at synoptic times

NTCP Critical Design Review

it system architectures for npp tc products within nde 1 2
IT SYSTEM ARCHITECTURES FOR NPP TC PRODUCTS – WITHIN NDE (1/2)

ESPC

DDS

NDE/ESPC IT Environment

MIRS temperature retrievals

NPP ATMS TC products

GFS analyses, global TC positions

NDE Linux

“System Test”

NDE AIX

“Production ”

NDE Linux “Development”

NDE Linux

“Production ”

TC

“CIRA Linux Server”

R2O

Outside of NDE Environment – See next slide

NTCP Critical Design Review

71

71

V2.1 Jun 2010

it system architecture for npp tc products outside of nde 2 2
IT SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE FOR NPP TC PRODUCTS – OUTSIDE OF NDE (2/2)

ESPC

DDS

NPP ATMS TC products

NDE Environment – See previous slide

NPP ATMS TC products

NPP ATMS TC products

GFS analyses, TC positions

http/ftp pull - ATCF

NPP ATMS TC products

OPSO web/ftp

ESPC

http/ftp pull - ATCF

TC positions

Archive

NPP ATMS TC products

NPP ATMS TC products

NCEP

QC

Monitoring

CLASS/NCDC

JTWC

NHC

ESPC

TC positions and GFS analyses

TC positions

NTCP Critical Design Review

72

72

V2.1 Jun 2010

slide73

NTCP Software Flow Diagram

GFS Analysis

(grib)

MIRS ATMS sounding

(netCDF)

Perl script + Fortran

Python script

Sounding Retrieval

(ASCII)

ATCF TC Positions

(text)

GFS Analysis

(PACK ASCII)

Vertical and Horizontal Integrations

(Fortran)

Statistical Analysis (Fortran)

Quality Control

(Fortran)

Bias Correction

(Fortran)

Outputs (ASCII)

TC Intensity and wind radii estimates (.FIX)

ATCF fix data (.AFX)

Outputs (ASCII)

2D azimuthal mean radial/hgt cross sections (.RZA)

Balanced 2-D wind field (.XYA)

NTCP Critical Design Review

73

73

input output files
Input / output files

NTCP Critical Design Review

Total < 1 Gb

slide75
Quality Assurance

Presented

byLimin Zhao

NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO

NTCP Critical Design Review

qa review
QA Review
  • QA Purpose
    • Problem Prevention
    • Early Error Detection
    • Risk Identification and Mitigation
  • QA Activities
    • SPSRB Processes
    • Configuration Management
    • Project Monitoring
    • System Monitoring
    • Product Performance Monitoring

NTCP Critical Design Review

spsrb process
SPSRB Process
  • Review Processes
    • PDR
    • CDR
    • Software Code Review
    • Operational System Readiness Review
    • Documentations
      • Algorithm Theoretical Basis
      • End User Manual
      • Systems Maintenance Manual
      • Archive Data Submission Agreement
      • ESPC Monitoring Procedures
  • Documentation/Standards
    • OSPO Code Standards
    • SPSRB Documentation Templates

NTCP Critical Design Review

configuration management
Configuration Management
  • CM Tool
    • NDE: Subversion, JIRA
    • ESPC: Subversion, RATS
  • CM personnel have been identified.
  • The NDE and ESPC CM Procedures will be enforced

NTCP Critical Design Review

qa project monitoring
QA – PROJECT MONITORING

Regular Team meeting to discuss the project status

Identify and track the issues and risks throughout the lifecycle

Provides managements with objective feedback regarding process compliance to approved plans, procedures, standards, and analyses

NTCP Critical Design Review

qa system monitoring
QA – SYSTEM MONITORING
  • NDE System
    • NTCP will run within the NDE frame work
    • NDE will provide tools for system and process monitoring
    • The IPT will work with the NDE team to ensure the NTCP is covered in the monitoring plan.
  • DAP Integration
    • The IPT will work with the NDE algorithm integrator to ensure that the algorithm is properly integrated, and produce the expected products
    • The IPT will work with the NDE and DDS team to ensure that all required inputs data are available for the TC algorithm

NTCP Critical Design Review

qa product monitoring
QA – PRODUCT MONITORING
  • Error tracking
    • Intensity & wind radii estimates will be added to ATCF system
      • Can be routinely compared with similar estimates from other platforms
      • Can be done by STAR/RAMMB, in coordination with SAB
      • Real-time monitoring/feedback obtained from NHC
    • Nonlinear balance winds are input to the Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis system
      • Operational at NESDIS
      • Includes automated input quality control that can be leveraged to routinely monitor the nonlinear balance winds
  • Near-real-time monitoring
    • 24 x monitoring by ESPC help desk
      • Monitor product log files each run cycle

NTCP Critical Design Review

qa science monitoring
QA - science monitoring
  • Annual verification will be performed by STAR / CIRA
    • CIRA will work with NHC to perform seasonal verifications based on best track wind intensities and aircraft measured pressures
    • Verification statistics computed as compared to ATCF intensity and wind radii diagnoses
  • Annual updates will be performed by STAR / CIRA
    • Bug fixes, updates to algorithm coefficients as needed
  • STAR / CIRA to provide near-real-time science support
    • E.g., answering algorithm-related questions, trouble-shooting
    • As needed during normal business hours (M-F, 8-5pm MST)

NTCP Critical Design Review

qa summary
QA Summary

QA activities will be performed throughout the software development life cycle.

Code development and documentation will follow the guidelines/standards of SPSRB.

The QA process assures faster and more efficient research to operation transitions.

NTCP Critical Design Review

slide84
Risks and Actions

Presented byMark Demaria

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

NTCP Critical Design Review

risks and actions1
Risks and Actions
  • PDR Risk 1: MiRS retrieval limitations may cause product degradations
  • Risk Assessment: Preliminary validation of AMSU MiRS data show temperature/moisture retrievals don’t always converge near storm center
  • Impact: If too many soundings are not available near the storm center, product accuracy will be degraded
  • Likelihood: It is likely that some ATMS MiRS retrievals will be missing near the storm center. The impact on the product is unknown. Based on AMSU results, the most likely outcome is that the MiRS retrievals will provide tropical cyclone products of comparable accuracy to the current version with statistical retrievals.
  • Mitigation:
    • Work with MIRS development team to improve MiRS retrieval in cloudy regions if necessary
  • Status: Open

NTCP Critical Design Review

risks and actions2
Risks and Actions
  • CDR Risk 1: The operational schedule for the NPP TC products might be delayed
  • Risk Assessment:
    • The NDE PE-1 is scheduled to transition to OSPO in July 2013 time frame, and the applications that can run on PE-1 will be transitioned into operation when it’s ready
    • The NTCP is planned to run on the NDE Linux server. If the current PE-1 doesn't meet the Hardware/Software requirements of NTCP, the NTCP will have to wait till the updates be added to the PE-1 in Jan 2014 time frame.
  • Impact: The TC products might not be operational available in Oct 2013 time frame as originally scheduled
  • Likelihood: Low - Medium
  • Mitigation:
    • Work with the NDE team to get the TC DAP integrated into its test environment PE-2 as soon as the capacity is there, and get ready for operational transition
    • Update the project schedule to capture the delay during the PSDI annual review
  • Status: Open

NTCP Critical Design Review

risks and actions summary
Risks and ActionsSummary
  • There are 1 risk and 3 review items identified from PDR, and 1 risk identified from CDR
  • 1 PDR risk remains open, and have a severity of high
  • 1 CDR risk remains open, and have a severity of medium
  • 3 Review Items have been addressed after the PDR
slide88
Summary and Conclusions

Presented

byMark Demaria

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

NTCP Critical Design Review

review objectives have been addressed
Review Objectives Have Been Addressed
  • Project Plan has been reviewed
  • Operations concept has been reviewed
  • Project requirements have been reviewed
  • Algorithm theoretical basis has been reviewed
  • Software system architecture and interfaces have been reviewed
  • Plans for quality assurance have been reviewed
  • Open Risks and Actions have been reviewed

NTCP Critical Design Review

next steps
Next Steps
  • Code Development / Transfer Phase
    • Complete code development
    • Test data generation
    • Unit tests
    • Prepare documentation
    • Software Review – May 2013
    • System Readiness Review – July 2013
    • SPSRB Briefing – Aug 2013

NTCP Critical Design Review

open discussion
Open Discussion
  • The review is now open for free discussion

NTCP Critical Design Review