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CRITICAL DESIGN REVIEW NPP MICROWAVE SOUNDER-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS (NTCP) MARCH 13, 2012 PRESENTED BY: ANDREA SCHUMACHER 1 , MARK DEMARIA 2 , LIMIN ZHAO 3 1. CIRA / COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY 2. NOAA/NESIDS/STAR/RAMMB 3. NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO. Outline. Introduction DeMaria

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  1. CRITICAL DESIGN REVIEWNPP MICROWAVE SOUNDER-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS (NTCP)MARCH 13, 2012PRESENTED BY:ANDREA SCHUMACHER1, MARK DEMARIA2, LIMIN ZHAO31. CIRA / COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY2. NOAA/NESIDS/STAR/RAMMB3. NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO

  2. Outline • IntroductionDeMaria • PDR Risk and Actions Zhao • Requirements Schumacher • Operations Concept Zhao • Algorithm Theoretical Basis Schumacher • Software Architecture & Interfaces Schumacher • Quality Assurance Zhao • Risks and Actions DeMaria • Summary and Conclusions DeMaria NTCP Critical Design Review

  3. Introduction Presented by Mark Demaria (STAR/CIRA) NTCP Critical Design Review

  4. Introduction • Project Background • Project Objective • Integrated Product Team • Stakeholders • Project Plan • CDR entry / exit criteria NTCP Critical Design Review

  5. PROJECT OBJECTIVES • Provide TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. The products include: • Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity estimates • Maximum surface wind • Minimum sea level pressure • Radii of 34, 50, 64 kt winds in 4 quadrants relative to the storm center • Balanced horizontal winds from 1000 to 200 mb within 600km of the storm center NTCP Critical Design Review

  6. Integrated product team • IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria (STAR) • IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao (OSPO) • NESDIS Team: • STAR: Mark DeMaria, John Knaff • OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC Products PAL) • OSD: Tom Schott • Data Center: Phil Jones • Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Jiande Wang (SSAI), Hazari Syed (SSAI) • User Team • Lead: Michael Brennan and Jack Beven (NWS/NHC) • Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP • Other Ops Involved: Soundings, Precipitation NTCP Critical Design Review

  7. PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS – O & M • OSPO Products Area Lead – Liqun Ma • OSPO QA Lead – Zhaohui Cheng • Operational Implementation and Maintenance Team • Hazari Syed • Jiande Wang • Science Maintenance Team • Mark DeMaria • Andrea schumacher NTCP Critical Design Review

  8. PROJECT STAKEHOLDERS – USERS • National Hurricane Center • Michael Brennan (michael.j.brennan@noaa.gov) • Jack Beven (john.l.beven@noaa.gov) • Joint Typhoon Warning Center • Edward Fukada (edward.fukada@navy.mil) • Central Pacific Hurricane Center • Satellite Analysis Branch • Mike Turk (michael.turk@noaa.gov) NTCP Critical Design Review

  9. Project plaN: Tasks (1/3) • Year 1 (May 2011- Apr 2012) • IPT Lead informed to begin product development • Begin adapting current AMSU algorithms to MIRS retrieval datasets • NPP launch, begin collecting ATMS radiance data when available for global tropical cyclones NTCP Critical Design Review

  10. Project plan: Tasks (2/3) • Year 2 (May 2012- Apr 2013) • Begin collecting MIRS ATMS soundings and limb corrected ATMS brightness temperatures, for global tropical cyclones (collecting sample cases, real-time ingest expected to be available Jul 2013) • Identify Initial Archive Requirements • Define Quality Monitoring Concept • Define Long-term Maintenance Concept • Conduct Preliminary Design Review • Define development processing system • Process test case • Conduct Critical Design Review • Identify final archive requirements identified • Develop pre-ops retrieval algorithms (using available NPP ATMS sounding test cases) • Prepare code for implementation NTCP Critical Design Review

  11. Project plan tasks (3/3) • Year 3 (May 2013- Apr 2014) • Conduct Software Code Review • Deliver Algorithm Package to NDE • Test and evaluate NTCP DAP within NDE SADIE, make algorithm adjustments • Run NTCP on the NDE System Integration for 2013 Atlantic hurricane season • Transition code to operations • Complete all documentation • Brief SPSRB Oversight Panel(s) on product status • Brief SPSRB capability is ready to go operational • SPSRB declares product operational • SPSRB Secretaries/manager update the SPSRB product metrics web pages • OSD updates Satellite Products database NTCP Critical Design Review

  12. Project Plan: Schedule • Schedule (key milestones): • Preliminary Design Review – July 2012  Oct 16, 2012 • Critical Design Review – Mar 2013  Mar 13, 2013 • Software Review – May 2013 • System Readiness Review – July 2013 • SPSRB Briefing – Aug 2013 • Operations Commence – Aug 2013 NTCP Critical Design Review

  13. PROJECT PLAN: STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT • Development Team • Coding and documentation • Quality assurance • Data verification and validation • Configuration Management • Operation and Maintenance • Code Acceptance • Running system • Interface with operations • Monitoring • Distribution • Users • Supply customer request • Review project development • Archive data • Communicate with development team NTCP Critical Design Review

  14. CDR Entry Criteria • PDR Report • Review of the NPP ATMS-based TC Products Project: • Requirements • Operations Concept • Software Architecture & Interfaces • Product Monitoring • Quality Assurance • Risks and Actions NTCP Critical Design Review

  15. CDR Exit Criteria • CritericalDesign Review Report • The CDR Report (CDRR) will be compiled before the SRR • The report will contain: • Actions • Comments • CDR presentation NTCP Critical Design Review

  16. PDR Risks and ActionsPresented by Limin Zhao (NESDIS/OSPO) NTCP Critical Design Review

  17. Risks and Actions • Risk 1: MiRS retrieval limitations may cause product degradations • Risk Assessment:Preliminary validation of AMSU MiRS data show temperature/moisture retrievals don’t always converge near storm center • Impact:If too many soundings are not available near the storm center, product accuracy will be degraded • Likelihood:It is likely that some ATMS MiRS retrievals will be missing near the storm center. The impact on the product is unknown. Based on AMSU results, the most likely outcome is that the MiRS retrievals will provide tropical cyclone products of comparable accuracy to the current version with statistical retrievals. • Mitigation: • Work with MIRS development team to improve MiRS retrieval in cloudy regions if necessary • Status:Open NTCP Critical Design Review

  18. Risk and Actions • Review Item 1: Please confirm the archive request with users, and send an archive request to NCDC after the request is validated • Action:Confirmed the archive request for the balance wind product, and submitted the archive initiative to NCDC • Status:Closed NTCP Critical Design Review

  19. Risk and Actions • Review Item 2: The S-NPP TC algorithm should run within NDE vs the Linux VMWare machines within ESPC. Explain why the S-NPP TC algorithm is not being proposed to run within NDE. This issue needs to resolved between the Project Leads and Jim Silva (NDE Project Manager) quickly because there is not very much time between now and CDR. Recommend you explain pros/cons for running applications with VMWarevs NDE from a cost, schedule, performance and technical perspectives. • Action:A write-up was prepared and submitted to the NDE project manager for evaluation, which explains pros/cons for running applications with VMWare at ESPC vs NDE from a cost, schedule, performance and technical perspectives. The NDE team provided feedback after evaluation, and still recommended the implementation be done at NDE. • Status:Closed NTCP Critical Design Review

  20. Risk and Actions • Review Item 3: The requirements section need be enhanced to include more detailed information. • Action:Added more details on the distribution and monitoring requirements. • Status:Closed NTCP Critical Design Review

  21. RequirementsPresented by Andrea Schumacher (STAR/CIRA) NTCP Critical Design Review

  22. Requirements • Create and distribute NPP Microwave-based Tropical Cyclone Products • Ingest MIRS NPP ATMS sounding data, GFS analyses, and ATCF current TC positions • Create intensity and structure estimates and TC-environment 2D balanced wind fields • Benefit to user • Continuity and potential improvement of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters • Impact if not done • Disruptions to AMSU sounding data will result in disruptions of these TC guidance products used by NHC and JTWC. The improved capabilities ATMS will not be fully utilized by NHC and JTWC operations. • NOAA Mission Goal supported • Weather and Water • Commerce and Transportation NTCP Critical Design Review

  23. Capabilities assessment NTCP Critical Design Review

  24. Delivery and archive • Provide NPP ATMS-based TC Products (NTCP) within 3 hours of synoptic time • Provide NPP ATMS-based TC • Intensity estimates • Surface wind radii estimates (R34, R50, R64) • TC environment 2D balanced winds (text and image) • Deliver text and image products to users via ESPC DDS • Also deliver text and image products to users via OSPO ftp or http site • Includes ATCF-format text products and text intermediate files • Required by ATCF and NCEP Multi-platform Surface Wind Analysis products • Deliver NPP ATMS-based TC text products to CLASS for archiving • Intensity estimates, radii estimates, 2D balanced winds, and r-z variable text files • Intensity and surface wind radii estimates will be incorporated in the ATCF text products, which are independently archived as well NTCP Critical Design Review

  25. requirements: spsrb • The NTCP development project shall adopt the standard practices of the SPSRB Review Board NTCP Critical Design Review

  26. Requirements: user request • SPSRB User Request #1009-0017 submitted by NHC • Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. • Accuracy • Same or better than current AMSU-based products • MAE ≤ 13.5 kt / 9 hPA for intensity estimates • MAE ≤ 32, 18, 10 nmi for 34-, 50-, 64-kt radii, respectively. • Latency • Available 3 hours or less after synoptic time • Timeliness • Run every 6 hours at synoptic time (0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC) • Updated every 2 hours NTCP Critical Design Review

  27. Basic requirements: ingest (1/3) • NCEP GFS analyses and forecasts • 1-degree global analysis data file • grib1 or grib2 format • Run every 6 hours at 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC • Required as soon as data is available after each run time (typically 3-4 hours after synoptic time) • Required inside NDE system environment (ESPC DDS) NTCP Critical Design Review

  28. requirements: ingest (2/3) • MIRS ATMS temperature and moisture profile retrievals • Required as soon as MIRS processing is complete (est. < 3 hours after pass) • Required inside NDE system environment (direct pull from MIRS production system) NTCP Critical Design Review

  29. requirements: ingest (3/3) • Current ATCF TC positions and intensities • Need current b-decks (official TC positions) • Need current a-decks (official TC forecast positions) • ATCF a-decks and b-decks are regularly updated every 6 hours at 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC • ATCF a-decks and b-decks are occasionally updated at intermediate times • Required within one hour of update time  recommend hourly or twice-hourly refresh • Required inside NDE system environment (ESPC DDS) NTCP Critical Design Review

  30. requirements: environment • The NTCP shall be able to run in the Development Environment in NDE • Processing code written in Fortran 90 • Processing scripts written in Bash, Perl and Python • The NTCP shall be implemented to run in the NDE Operational Environment • Processing code written in Fortran 90 • Processing scripts written in Bash, Perl and Python NTCP Critical Design Review

  31. requirements: metadata • The NTCP shall generate metadata for products • Metadata text files will be written • Metadata will include overall quality and summary level metadata • Will coordinate with the Product Monitoring Project NTCP Critical Design Review

  32. requirements: qc (1/2) • The NTCP shall have QC monitoring capability • Product files shall include overall quality control flags and quality summary level metadata • The NTCP shall be capable of monitoring input data latency and overall quality • Need to create code for generating metadata • Need to import metadata from input data files • The NTCP shall be capable of monitoring product latency • Run status file will include processing time • The NTCP shall produce real-time imagery for visual inspection of output files • Will be done with Python NTCP Critical Design Review

  33. requirements: qc (2/2) • The NTCP shall be capable of monitoring product distribution status to ensure that the data/products are successfully available for transfer to the user community • A run status file will be produced • Will work with OSPO to determine needs • Each run status file shall include all runtime error messages • Will include system messages and error conditions written by the code • Each run status file shall indicate whether or no the run was completed without error • Code will write message, will be the last message in file so operators can find it easily • The NTCP shall write a log file for each production run • Used by OSPO for QC monitoring and troubleshooting. NTCP Critical Design Review

  34. requirements: development (1/2) • The NTCP developers shall produce a fully functional pre-operational system in the STAR Development Environment (CIRA) • Development environment shall include • Linux machine with 50 GB of disk storage • GNU Fortran 90 compiler • Bash, Perl • Python v2.6 or 2.7 • GrADS, gnuplot, ImageMagick • Java, JavaScripts • Wgrib2 • Python libraries (Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Basemap, netCDF4) • Fortran 90 libraries (zlib(1.2.7), hdf(1.8.9), netCDF(4.1.3) • **CIRA Development environment capable of all of the above NTCP Critical Design Review

  35. requirements: development (2/2) • Development environment shall be capable of • Hosting the conversion of NTCP science code to NCTP pre-operational code • Hosting unit tests and a system test • Accessing input data • ATMS retrievals (pull from MiRS production machine from within NDE) • a/b-decks, GFS analyses (DDS) • Hosting the pre-operational system • **CIRA Development environment capable of all of the above NTCP Critical Design Review

  36. requirements: pre-operations (1/3) • Development Environment shall host the pre-operational system • Pre-operational system shall include everything necessary to conduct unit tests, including • processing code and ancillary files • input test data • Complete unit test of the pre-operational system is expected before delivery to NDE • The UTR will provide a detailed description of the source code units and ancillary files • Pre-operational system shall include everything necessary to conduct system test, including • processing code and ancillary files • input test data • Complete unit test of the pre-operational system is expected before delivery to NDE • The SRR will provide a detailed description of the processing software system and ancillary files NTCP Critical Design Review

  37. requirements: pre-operations (2/3) • The NTCP integrated pre-operational system shall be transitioned from the STAR Development Environment (CIRA) to the NDE Test Environment • Pre-operational system shall include processing code, ancillary files, and all input test data necessary to conduct system test • Complete unit test of the pre-operational system is expected before delivery to NDE • The SRR will provide a detailed description of the processing software system and ancillary files • Pre-operational system shall include output data produced by system test • Needed by NDE to verify system test in its Test Environment • Comparison of outputs from system test in STAR and NDE environments will be part of the NDE system test • Specific items will be listed in the SRR NTCP Critical Design Review

  38. requirements: pre-operations (3/3) • The NTCP development team shall set up an FTP site for transferring the integrated pre-operational system to NDE as a Delivered Algorithm Package (DAP) • The NTCP development team shall ensure that the NDE PAL has the information needed to acquire the NTCP from the FTP site NTCP Critical Design Review

  39. requirements: documentation (1/2) • STAR shall deliver NTCP document package to OSPO. • Document package will include • README text file that lists each item in the final pre-operational system baseline, including code, test data, and documentation • Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) • Requirements Allocation Document (RAD) • System Maintenance Manual (SMM) • External Users Manual (EUM) • Internal Users Manual (IUM) • Critical Design Document (CDD) • Code Test Document (CTD) • System Readiness Document (SRD) • System Readiness Review Report (SRRR) • Documents approved readiness of NTCP system for transition to operations NTCP Critical Design Review

  40. requirements: documentation (2/2) • Document package will include a Review Item Disposition (RID) document • Describes final status of all development project tasks, work products, and risks • Supports the final System Readiness Review Report (SRRR) NTCP Critical Design Review

  41. requirements: it security • The NTCP system shall comply with OSPO Code Review Security checklists, including • OSPO data integrity checklist • OSPO development security checklist • OSPO code checklist NTCP Critical Design Review

  42. requirements: INTERFACE • The NDE Linux machines that hosts the NTCP system shall establish the following access interfaces: • DDS to pull the GFS and TC positions • NDE AIX machine to pull the MiRS sounding profiles • ESPC Product Monitoring System NTCP Critical Design Review

  43. Basic requirements: operations • The NTCP developers shall specify IT resource needs for operations • Linux Redhat v6 machine with 50 GB of disk storage • 100 mb RAM • GNU Fortran 90 compiler • Bash, Perl • Python v2.6 or 2.7 • GrADS, gnuplot, ImageMagick • Java, JavaScripts • Wgrib2 • Python libraries (Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, Basemap, netCDF4) • Fortran 90 libraries (zlib(1.2.7), hdf(1.8.9), netCDF(4.1.3) NTCP Critical Design Review

  44. basic requirements: Dissemination • Product Dissemination • NTCP output data will delivered to users via ESPC DDS • Text outputs • TC intensity estimates • Surface wind radii estimates (R34, R50 and R64) • 2-d balance winds • Intermediate text files (analysis statistics, 2D balance T and, r-z variables, ASCII retrieval data, and swath lat/lon) • Image outputs • 2-d balance winds • TC intensity and surface wind radii estimates will be integrated into Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. • Provide text outputs, including ATCF-format output, on OSPO ftp or http site • ATCF will ftp pull from OSPO ftp/http site NTCP Critical Design Review

  45. Operations Concept Presented byLimin Zhao NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO NTCP Critical Design Review

  46. Operations Concept - Overview • Interact with the customers/users to ensure the proposed algorithm/system design is consistent with their concept of operations documented in the SPSRB user request • Provide answers to the following questions based on the customer/user needs and expectations and production constraints • What is the product? • Why is this product being produced? • How will this product be used? • How should this product be produced (operational scenario)? • The operations concept will be refined by the NTCP IPT, in consultation with the customers/users, as the product solution and design are matured through the development phase. NTCP Critical Design Review

  47. NPP TC Products Users • The product requirements are originated from NWS through the SPSRB user request (#1009-0017), whose primary users include: • National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) • Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) & Dept. of Defense • NWS Offices NTCP Critical Design Review

  48. What is the Product? • Tropical Cyclone intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds from the NPP ATMS • Specific Requirements from users NTCP Critical Design Review

  49. Why Are The Products Being Produced? • Current operational TC products are available from NOAA-15/16/18 • Users need the operational capability for TC products from the NPP/JPSS satellites in supporting the continuity of operation • The products will be produced using the MiRS ATMS temperature retrievals NTCP Critical Design Review

  50. How Will The Products Be Used? • The NPP TC products will be used at NHC, JTWC, CPHC and WMO RSMCs for the diagnosis of tropical cyclone including intensity, size and warm/cold core structures • The NPP TC products will be integrated into ATCF for users to access. NTCP Critical Design Review

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