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The Coach's Dilemma: Italy vs. Costa Rica | Game Strategies Analysis

Dive into the tactical showdown between Italy and Costa Rica on June 14th. Understand the coach's dilemma between attack and defense through game theory simulations. Explore the outcomes, payoffs, and strategies involved in this thrilling match.

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The Coach's Dilemma: Italy vs. Costa Rica | Game Strategies Analysis

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  1. THE COACH’S DILEMMA by Daniele & Gianfranco Gambarelli

  2. Group D FIRST DAY: June 14th

  3. Group D

  4. NEXT MATCH vs

  5. ATTACK OR DEFENSE? Costa Rica Italy Cesare Prandelli Jorge Luis Pinto

  6. THE FORECASTS

  7. THE FORECASTS , , % ITA win. % C.R. win. % draw 56, 34, 10 76, 19, 05 61, 24, 15 66, 09, 25 66, 14, 20 THE PAYOFFS DEFENSE - DEFENSE ITA Payoff 0.56 x 3 + 0.34 x 1 = 2.02 C.R. Payoff 0.10 x 3 + 0.34 x 1 = 0.64

  8. THE PAYOFFS THE STRATEGIES , ITA Payoff C.R. Payoff < 2.02 , 0.64 2.47, 0.34 < < < 2.07, 0.84 2.12 , 0.74 THE SOLUTION ATTACK DEFENSE

  9. NO DOMINANCE? Nash (1950) Having called qAD = % defense of A qAO = % attack of A h = (aOD - aOO) / (aDO + aOD - aDD - aOO), it is: qAD = h if 0 h 1. Elsewhere 0 if min (aDD, aDO) < min (aOD, aOO) qAD =  1 if min (aDD, aDO) > min (aOD, aOO)  x: 0 < x < 1 otherwise qAO = 1 - qAD.

  10. THE STABILITY +10% -10% 61, 65, 15 20,31, 08 20, 24,15 73,65,03 56, 34, 10 76, 19, 05 71,65, 15 20,08, 21 68, 17, 15 20, 65,15 66, 09, 25 66, 14, 20

  11. AN OPEN PROBLEM: • Discrete  Continuum

  12. CONCLUSIONS: • To Game-Theorists: Discrete  Continuum • To Coaches: Before the match  No stone unturned • To Curious: …

  13. What happened?

  14. but …

  15. ITALIA 0 – COSTA RICA 1

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