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Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross- sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe. Project overview. For further information contact Paula Harrison (email: Paula.Harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu).

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Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Project overview

For further information contact Paula Harrison (email: Paula.Harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk)

or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)

Funded under the European Commission

Seventh Framework Programme

Contract Number: 244031

partners
Partners
  • Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, UK
  • TIAMASG Foundation, Romania
  • Prospex bvba, Belgium
  • ESSRG Kft, Hungary
  • Cranfield University, UK
  • CREAF, Spain
  • University of Kassel, Germany
  • Mendel University, Czech Republic
  • University of the Aegean, Greece
  • Rob Tinch, Belgium
  • Sustainable Environment Research Institute, Austria
  • University of Edinburgh, UK
  • University of Lund, Sweden
  • Wageningen University, The Netherlands
  • University of Southampton, UK
  • Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, China
  • University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia
  • Victoria University, Australia
climsave research themes
CLIMSAVE Research Themes

1. Developing a web-based tool (the Integrated Assessment Platform) for stakeholders to use to assess cross-sectoral climate change impacts and adaptation options for themselves.

2. Based on a series of linked sectoral models for 6 sectors: urban, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, water and coasts.

3. Developing new socio-economic scenarios with stakeholders that will be quantified within the tool along with a range of climate scenarios.

4. Assessing climate change impacts on, and adaptation options for both sectoral and ecosystem services indicators.

5. Analysing the cost-effectiveness of adaptation options.

6. Identifying vulnerability hotspots through metrics of impacts and adaptive capacity across sectors.

need for integrated assessment tools
Need for Integrated Assessment Tools
  • Decision-makers and other stakeholders need reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and opportunities for adaptation.
  • The EC White Paper on Adapting to Climate Change indicates that information and research on climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe is not effectively shared across sectors and decision-making levels.
  • Conclusion: there is a need for cross-sectoral, integrated assessment tools that take account of stakeholder concerns and requirements -> CLIMSAVE IA Platform.
  • The CLIMSAVE IA Platform will be a key tool in the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT).
the climsave ia platform
The CLIMSAVE IA Platform
  • Previously:
    • Models ‘belonged’ to the research community
    • Lack of flexibility for stakeholders (scenarios, quantification, sensitivity, uncertainty, outputs, etc.)
  • The CLIMSAVE IA Platform intends to:
    • Be intuitive and accessible to all
    • Flexible / Interactive
    • Useful
    • Be an exploratory tool, not a DSS
cross sectoral focus
Cross-sectoral focus

Agriculture

Competition for land

Forests

Urban

Biodiversity

Coasts

Impacts

Water

Competition for water

simplified cross sectoral linkages
Simplified cross-sectoral linkages

Climate & socio-economic scenarios

Urban

Snow cover

Crop yields

Forestry

Pests & diseases

Hydrology

Water availability

Flooding

Rural land allocation

Water use

Biodiversity

participatory scenario development
Participatory scenario development

Initial design of IA Platform

Construction of meta-models

Workshop 1:

Draft four socio-economic scenarios

Quantification of scenarios

Feedback on design and functionality

Workshop 2:

Enrich and expand scenarios

Revisit the quantification of scenarios

Define adaptation options

Workshop 3:

Test IA Platform with adaptation options

Explore impacts and adaptation responses

Final CLIMSAVE IA Platform

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Surplus

Deficit

Participatory socio-economic scenarios

Europe

Scotland

the impacts screen of the ia platform
The Impacts screen of the IA Platform

Allows you to:

  • Carry out a sensitivity analysis
  • Model the impacts of different future climate and socio-economic scenarios
  • Explore the effects of uncertainty within a scenario
sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis

Explore how changing the baseline climate affects model results

Explore how changing the baseline socio-economic assumptions affects model results

scenario analysis
Scenario analysis
  • Select your:
  • Time period (2020s or 2050s)
  • IPCC Emissions scenario
  • Climate model (5)
  • Climate sensitivity (medium is default)
  • Socio-economic scenario

Socio-economic scenarios were developed by stakeholders during the CLIMSAVE project

See how impacts change for different scenarios

illustrative results for the 2050s
Illustrative results for the 2050s

Change in the area of intensive agriculture:

Should I Stay

GDP: -36%

Popn: +23%

Yld Tech: -3%

Riders on the storm

GDP: +54%

Popn: +16%

Yld Tech: +26%

Water exploitation index:

Should I Stay

Wat Tech: -60%

WatBeh: +11%

Riders on the storm

Wat Tech: +45%

WatBeh: +52%

explore scenario uncertainty
Explore scenario uncertainty

Default slider positions developed by CLIMSAVE stakeholders

Green (for “Go”) range is stakeholder-derived scenario uncertainty

Yellow (for “Caution”) range to explore greater uncertainty

Red (for “Stop”)

adaptation screen

Moving to the adaptation screen fixes the scenarios

Adaptation screen

Marker shows setting from the Impacts screen

Difference between the marker and the slider represents the amount of adaptation

Green range represents credible adaptation. This is a function of the scenario and the available capital (human, social and manufactured)

example results on adaptation
Example results on adaptation
  • Increase irrigation efficiency by maximum allowed for each socio-economic scenario
  • Allows more land to be irrigated
  • Increases relative profitability of irrigated agriculture
  • Increases no. river basins under high water stress
vulnerability screen
Vulnerability screen

Combines Impact (relative to a threshold)

before or after adaptation

With Coping Capacity (a function of the Capitals)

To give a map of Vulnerability

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Vulnerability of people in 2050s

Percentage of the European population vulnerable, relative to baseline, for the six ecosystem service indices by socio-economic and climate scenario.

cost effectiveness screen
Cost-effectiveness screen

Qualitative assessment of the cost of implementation of a measure across a sector

Limiting capital for the implementation and efficacy of a measure (from dark green for very high capital availability to red for very low)

Qualitative assessment of the potential contribution the measure could make to overall effective adaptation in a sector

conclusions
Conclusions
  • The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is an interactive exploratory web-based tool to enable a wide range of professional, academic and governmental stakeholders to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability under uncertain futures.
  • Its holistic framework (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) is intended to complement, rather than replace, the use of more detailed sectoral tools used for local predictions.
  • It is intended to assist stakeholders and researchers in developing their capacity to understand the interactions between different sectors, rather than viewing sectors in isolation.
  • Available from www.climsave.euor Climate-ADAPT (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/climsave-tool).
the climsave team
The CLIMSAVE team

For further information, please contact the Project Coordinator:

Paula Harrison, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford;

email: Paula.Harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk