” تطورات اتفاقية الأمم المتحدة للتغيرالمناخي“ كوبنهاغن ومابعده الدكتور محمد سالم سرور الصبان المستشار الاقتصادي لوزير ال

1. ”تطورات اتفاقية الأمم المتحدة للتغيرالمناخي“ كوبنهاغن ومابعده الدكتور محمد سالم سرور الصبان المستشار الاقتصادي لوزير البترول المملكة العربية السعودية مؤتمر الطاقة العربي التاسع الدوحة- دولة قطر 11مايو 2010

2. 1992 1997 Framework Convention Kyoto Protocol Targets (5.2%) 2008-2012 (First Commitments Period) Annex-1 Countries Stabilize Their GHGs At 1990 Levels by 2000

3. Bali Road Map 2008-2012 Targets (5.2%) 2013-2020 Targets (??%) Kyoto Track New Agreement ? ? Convention Track

4. Russia USA Australia EU Japan Canada New Zealand Africa OPEC South Africa Saudi Arabia China Brazil India SIDS GRULAC

5. Developments Before Copenhagen Developed Countries Position: • Trying to Kill of Kyoto! • One Track Only of New Treaty ( Moving Away From the UNFCCC Convention and Bali Action Plan: • Developed and Developing Countries are equal. (no Historical or Differentiated Responsibility). • Emphasis on Large Developing Countries (India, China..) • Mitigation Obligations for All Countries. • Unified System for Measuring, Reporting, and Verifying. • Imposing Carbon Tariffs on Developing Countries Exports with Weaker Emissions Targets.

6. Developments Before Copenhagen Developing Countries United On: • Kyoto Protocol to Continue (Second Commitment Period). • Comparable Commitment for the US in the LCA Outcomes. • No Agreement Without the Following: • New and Additional Strong Financial Support and Technology Transfer from Developed Countries. • Voluntary Mitigation Actions (No Binding Targets). • Adaptation (Urgent Priority). • No Differentiation Among Developing Countries. • No Renegotiation of Convention Principles and Provisions..

7. Copenhagen Accord: Summary Global Goal • Limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius • Peaking of global emissions should be “as soon as possible” • Midterm commitments figures for developed countries to be submitted by end of January 2010, and included in an annex • Developing countries’ actions will be compiled in a different annex and reported on in their national communications; the actions will be subject to domestic measuring, reporting and verification, following agreed guidelines • New mechanism to provide incentives for reduced emissions from deforestation and land degradation • Urgent priority, including adaptation to the impact of response measures • Agreement on the provision of scaled up financing form developed countries to address the needs of developing countries. Fast start financing of $ 30 billion for the period 2010-2012. Long term financing goal of $ 100 billion a year from 2020 • Establishment of a technology mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer Mitigation Adaptation Finance Technology Review of the Accord and Arrangements in 2015.

8. What’s Next After Copenhagen? Negotiations Will Continue: • First meeting in Bonn 9-11 April 2010 Confirmed No legality of the Accord, But It Can Be Inserted under relevant Sections of The Negotiating Text Through Parties’ New Submissions. • Negotiations continue with the Aim to Reach new Climate Change Agreements ( Under the Two Tracks) at COP 16 (Mexico – November 2010): • The UNFCCC is the Only Negotiating Process With Emphasis on Full Transparency and Inclusiveness. • The Un Secretary General, Developed Countries and the UNFCCC Secretariat Tried Hard to give higher status for the Accord, But Were Not Successful. • Confidence Between Developed and Developing Countries Very Low As Result of Copenhagen Non inclusive Process.

9. Binding Global Goal? • 50% by 2050 • Limit Temperature increase to 2 Degrees • GHG Concentration of 450 ppm • Global Emission to Peak by 2015 What does it Mean? Implications? Developed Countries • 25% - 40% by 2020 (Reduction Below 1990 levels). • 80% - 90% by 2050 (Reduction Below 1990 levels). Developing Countries • 15% - 30% by 2020 (Deviation from Business as Usual ). • 2020 to 2050 (Reductions - vary Among Developing Countries).

10. Could There Be An Outcome in Mexico? • Great Doubts of An Agreement By the End of 2010. • Differences Between Developed And Developing Countries Are Still Huge And Fundamental. • No Real Burden Sharing Proposals on the Table. • “ Arm Twisting” Approach by Developed Countries Is Not Working With Most Developing Countries Anymore. • Issues Such as: Global Taxes on Aviation and Maritime Fuels, Finance to be Provided by All Countries, Little Attention Paid to Adaptation, Are Among the Continuous Unresolved Ones.

11. Continued Downward Revisions of Global Oil Demand Even Before New International Climate Agreement

12. Impact of Climate Policies On Oil Demand (IEA’s 450 Scenario):

13. Continued: Impact of IEA’s 450 Scenario

14. EU & US energy policy impact on required production from OPEC (vs. Baseline)