US Climate Change Science Program and EPA Margaret Leinen National Science Foundation Vice Chair, US Climate Change Science Program September 26, 2005
Overview of theU.S. Climate Change Science Program Vision: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. Mission: Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication. www.climatescience.gov
Function: • Coordination and integration of relevant Federal activities • Comprising 13 Departments / Agencies • ~$2B/year
Brief History of CCSP • U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): 1990 • Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI): 2001 • Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): 2002 • CCSP encompasses CCRI and • USGCRP • - Strategic Plan released July 2003
CCSP Integrated Goals Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment, including their natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s climate and related systems Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change
CCSP Core Approaches Scientific Research: Plan, sponsor, and conduct research on climate and related systems Observations: Enhance observations and data management systems to generate a comprehensive set of variables needed for climate-related research Decision Support: Develop improved science-based resources to aid decision-making Communications: Communicate results to domestic and international scientific and stakeholder communities, stressing openness and transparency
CCSP Internal Structure CCSP Interagency Committee Director: Asst. Sec. of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere CCSP Office Atm. Comp. Carbon Cycle Climate Var. & Change Interagency Working Groups Communications Ecosystems HD / HCR International LULCC Water Cycle Observations
Priorities, Budget, and Evaluation • Research priorities are determined annually based on input from the CCSP Interagency Working Groups and the agency prioritization process. • Priorities are consistent with the Strategic Plan • Budget reported annually: by agency and by research element • Pilot progress evaluation undertaken in FY05 by assessing status of Milestones, Products, and Payoffs. • Future evaluation to be informed by NRC Metrics report, which recommends evaluating process, inputs, outputs, outcomes, and impacts
Capacity Building • Human Capital • Thousands of PI’s and their Co-I’s & students • Education programs and tools, e.g., fellowships and curricula support • Science community leaders trained to contribute to interdisciplinary research and assessments, e.g. IPCC contributors • Research Assets • New generation of space-based, suborbital and surface-based observing systems • Information systems to process, archive and distribute data and information • Essential elements of the needed computational capacity • Future challenges require building on this success
Overview of decision support resources development • Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments • Develop resources to support adaptive management and planning, and transition these resources from research to application • Develop and evaluate methods to support policymaking and demonstrate these methods with case studies
CCSP Synthesis & Assessment Products Overview: Current evaluations of the science foundation that can be used for informing public debate, policy, and operational decisions, and for defining and setting the future direction and priorities of the program There will be 21 products that span all five CCSP goals. The S&A products will constitute the CCSP assessment effort as mandated in 1990 GCRA.
Components of the process: - Lead agency identification - Prospectus preparation - Author selection - Stakeholder interactions, public comment - Product drafting/reviewing • Approval, production, and release • Products subject to IQA and FACA
CCSP Workshop • Location: Marriott Crystal Gateway, Arlington, VA • Purpose: To facilitate exchange of ideas among the government, academic, international, NGO, and stakeholder groups participating in the CCSP process. • Topics: Discussions will include the scientific basis and the use of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in addressing CCSP’s three decision support goals: • Prepare scientific syntheses and assessments (national and international) • Develop and illustrate adaptive management and planning capabilities. • Develop and evaluate methods to support climate change policy inquiries • Registration: http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/
EPA’s Unique Contributions to CCSP EPA’s global change activities are focused on assessing the potential consequences of global change for the U.S., as well as possible adaptation strategies. Many other CCSP agencies partner with EPA in these activities, making the whole greater than the sum of the parts. The CCSP Strategic Plan plays a key role in framing these partnership through its articulation of the national climate science priorities, which are often larger than any one agency can address alone.
EPA Unique Contributions to CCSP (cont.) EPA is a small, but vital component of CCSP (~2% of the CCSP budget is with EPA). It has played a key leadership role in several areas, e.g.: • Production of the First U.S. National Assessment • 3 Regional Assessments • The Human Health Assessment • Development of the CCSP Strategic Plan • Production of CCSP S&A products: • 4.1 Sea level rise • 4.4 Adaptation options • 4.6 Human health and welfare
Attributes of long-termresearch activities • Extramural and intramural research supported by participating Agencies • Large number of deliverables • Incubator for knowledge that is then used in decision support resource development • Interactions with users in research mode • Coordinated through interagency working groups with external guidance and review • Challenge: balance long-term Earth system research with focus on climate uncertainties
Strategy for Achieving an Integrated Observing System • Science-driven requirements based on the need for climate-quality data products, including • Adherence to climate monitoring principles • Use of climate models to assist in observing system design • Protocols for validation of data assimilation and reanalysis • Stabilizing and extending observing capabilities • Research to operations transition for satellites • Completing, maintaining, and updating in situ networks • New capabilities for new observations (e.g., ecosystems) and to integrate existing components • Accelerating the deployment of pieces needed for decision support • Those associated with the near-term priorities and goals • International collaboration
Our Changing Planet The program’s annual report to Congress.