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Population Projections – Local Authority Usage

Population Projections – Local Authority Usage. Greg Ball. Variety. Is there a single local authority view? Size: population and geography Type: Unitary, county, district, metropolitan, London Local issues: BME, rural, growth,decline Expertise, interest, resources

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Population Projections – Local Authority Usage

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  1. Population Projections –Local Authority Usage Greg Ball

  2. Variety • Is there a single local authority view? • Size: population and geography • Type: Unitary, county, district, metropolitan, London • Local issues: BME, rural, growth,decline • Expertise, interest, resources • My personal perspective only

  3. Uses of projections/forecasts • The Grant Formula – major impact • Planning • Spatial (RSS/LDF) • Health, “Wanless” strategic needs review • Education, Skills • Leisure, Open Space, Retail, Crematoria • Transportation • Housing needs • Boundary reviews

  4. Time Horizons • Long-term • Regional Spatial Strategies and LDFs • Short-term • The grant settlement! • Current year planning/monitoring/PIs • Short/medium term service plans

  5. Beyond population • Households • Ethnic Group • Labour Force • Disability

  6. Why some(?)Councils do not use ONS projections • Technical reservations about method • Concerns over data quality • Need Policy-based forecasts • Migration • May use technical inputs from projections • May use selectively

  7. Possible Wants • Accurate • Timely, regular, frequent • Valid over long and short term • Other geographies • Details about population • Access to detailed assumptions and results • Variants or indicators of sensitivity • Policy related? • The impossible dream?

  8. Timing • Time-lag in production • In past – irregular & sometimes infrequent • Out of sync with policy deadlines • Discrepancies between projections and estimates • The grant settlement! • Current year planning/monitoring • Should we simplify to • increase frequency? • cut time lags?

  9. Geography • ONS is local authority based, but are other needs • PCTs • Small area • Wards/ Census Output Areas • New development areas • City Centres • Traffic Zones • Regional & Cross border strategies • Birmingham/Solihull Corridor

  10. Detail about the population • End Users • The beginning & the end • Children and older people - detailed ages • The middle • Workforce & Housing – less interest in age detail • Age groups overlap (0-17; 12-19 etc) • Implications of turnover & migration • Add-ons – disability, ethnic groups • Analysts and demographers need • Quinary, preferably single year

  11. Access to data & assumptions • To build our policy-based models we need access to • detailed assumptions behind projections • fertility, mortality, migrant age structures • unrounded & detailed ONS projection data in appropriate formats

  12. Variant Projections? • Probably unmanageable for all areas with current model but perhaps for regions? • Natural Change only • Sensitivity indicators

  13. Policy v Trend? • ONS projections are ‘trend-based’ but is the future they project the most likely? • Policy based forecasts • What policy? • Birmingham Plan informed by 1996 projections • Regional Strategy uses 2003-based (being revised to 2004-based) • Policy takes time to affect outcomes

  14. Hierarchy & Inflexibility • Model ensures consistency with national projections and balances internal migration flows • Does hierarchical control produce unrealistic results in some areas? • Inflexibility in modelling international migration flows at local level

  15. One Size fits all? • Can one method work in all areas? • Population size (25,000 to 1 million) • Scale & nature of population change • Students, armed forces, ethnic groups • Retirement areas, commuter hinterlands, areas close to ports of entry for immigrants

  16. A tailored approach? • Local Authority level • Short term, simple method, frequent review • Data & methodology advice • Regions • Long term • Variant assumptions & policy effects

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