Ender's Game for Science and Engineering: Games for Real, For Now, or We Lose the Brain War

1. Ender's Game for Science and Engineering: Games for Real, For Now, or We Lose the Brain War Merrilea J. Mayo Director, GUIRR The National Academies * This presentation represents the author’s own view and not that of the National Academies

2. Ender’s Game • Orson Scott Card’s novel about a young boy playing video games in which he outmaneuvers a virtual alien fleet and destroys it. • Except the fleet wasn’t virtual – a fact the boy found out only after he had annihilated the entire alien race. • Use of games to train, learn, and perform real activities in realistic environments. To become the best through game-based learning.

3. The “Brain War” • Emergence of Asia as major locus of technical expertise concerns U.S. policymakers. • As one example, China produces 4x as many engineers as the U.S. Their much larger statistics not only mean that they will have more smart people than does the U.S., but also that their smartest people will be smarter than our smartest people.

4. The Brain War • The only reason the U.S. has not faced this issue before, is that more populous countries did not have the educational infrastructure to let their smart people reach their full potential. • In popular press, outsourcing and offshoring have become major issues relevant to the creation of a highly trained technical cadre outside the U.S. • As the U.S. continues to stand still, and other countries move rapidly towards technological prowess, the U.S. faces loss of its leadership position.

5. US Fraction of Science & Engineering Personnel (2000-2001) Bachelors Degrees in Natural Science & Engineering Bachelors Degrees in Engineering Data from National Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Two volumes. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1, NSB 04-1; volume 2, NSB 04-1A).

6. Engineering Ph.Ds (2000-2001) Country of Graduation “Homegrown” Note: If we were to add China’s engineering diaspora into the Chinese Ph.D. count, China would annually graduate more than twice as many Ph.D. engineers as the U.S. Data from which these calculations were made: National Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Two volumes.Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1, NSB 04-1; volume 2, NSB 04-1A). Appendix Table 2-44.

7. Asian S&E PhD’s Climbing Rapidly National Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Two volumes. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1, NSB 04-1; volume 2, NSB 04-1A). Appendix Table 2-39. South Korea Japan China Taiwan

8. US S&E PhD’s Stagnant National Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Two volumes. Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1, NSB 04-1; volume 2, NSB 04-1A). USA

9. Efficiency of U.S. Educational System in Producing Technical Talent is Poor: Higher Ed • U.S. ranks 80th out of 92 countries in the fraction of its college students who obtain bachelors degrees in the natural sciences and engineering. • U.S. also ranks 80th out of 92 countries in the fraction of its college students who obtain bachelors degrees in engineering. • We educate many more people than other nations, but only a small fraction of those choose to major in science and engineering. Data from which these calculations were made: National Science Board. 2004. Science and Engineering Indicators 2004. Two volumes.Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation (volume 1, NSB 04-1; volume 2, NSB 04-1A). Appendix Table 2-33.

10. Efficiency of U.S. Educational System in Producing Technical Talent is Poor: K-12 • International (TIMSS) test scores show U.S. 4th graders to be 12th in the world in math; 6th in the world in science • International (TIMSS) test scores show U.S. 8th graders to be 14th in the world in math; 9th in the world in science • International (PISA) test scores show U.S. 12th graders to be 24th in the world in math; 22nd in the world in science • The longer we stay in the educational system, the worse off we are with respect to our peers??? Data from National Center for Education Statistics (http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/pisa/PISA2003Highlights.asp and http://nces.ed.gov/timss/Results03.asp)

11. Why S&E Games Might Be a “Bronze Bullet” Minor reasons: • Do not have to go through the school system to have national impact. • Possibility for individually tailored learning experience according to learning style and rate. • Each copy of a game would be of uniform quality. Each teacher is not.

12. Why S&E Games Might Be a “Bronze Bullet” Major Reasons: • Reach More People than all of Higher Ed • Teach People Better than Lecture • Expected from theoretical considerations • Expected from biological considerations • Shown by (very limited) experiments • Time on task is high

13. 390,000 U.S. B.S. S&E’s/year 60,000 U.S. B.S. Engineers/year One Game Can Reach as Many People as the Entire U.S. Higher Education System Graduates in a Year Across all Science & Engineering Disciplines Lineage Lineage II WOW Everquest Ultima Online Date Woodcock, Bruce Sterling (2005). An Analysis of MMOG Subscription Growth. MMOGCHART.COM 17.0. 14 June 2005. http://www.mmogchart.com

14. 700,000 650,000 Ultima Online 600,000 EverQuest Asheron's Call 550,000 Dark Age of Camelot 500,000 RuneScape 450,000 Final Fantasy XI The Sims Online 400,000 Ragnarok Online (JP) Total Current Subscribers 350,000 Star Wars Galaxies 390,000 U.S. B.S. S&E’s/year City of Heroes 300,000 EverQuest II 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 60,000 U.S. B.S. Engineers/year 0 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Date One Game Can Reach as Many People as the Entire U.S. Higher Education System Graduates in a Year Across all Science & Engineering Disciplines Woodcock, Bruce Sterling (2005). An Analysis of MMOG Subscription Growth. MMOGCHART.COM 17.0. 14 June 2005. http://www.mmogchart.com

15. Learning Better - Theory • Preliminary finding of international comparisons (TIMSS, PISA) is that US students learn too much, too superficially, without understanding anything. • From learning theory, we know some attributes assist deep learning • Experiential learning (you do it, you learn it): Active participation; decisions that have consequences. Typical of immersive games. • Inquiry-based learning (what happens when I do this?): exploration in games. • Authenticity (the more like real-life the learning situation, the more easily learners will transfer the information to real life): virtual worlds • Self-efficacy (if you believe you can do it, you will increase your chances of succeeding): rewards & levels in games For more info, see How People Learn, Washington, DC: National Academies Press (2000).

16. Learning Better - Theory • Goal setting (you will make more progress if working towards a well-defined goal): game goal • Continuous feedback: student in conventional classroom gets to ask only 0.11 questions/hr. In tutoring, student gets 20-30 questions/hr. (Fletcher, J.D. “Technology, the Columbus Effect, and the Third Revolution in Learning”, Institute for Defense Analysis, 2001. ). Carnegie-Mellon Algebra Tutor increases TIMSS scores by 30%. What result for games??? • Cooperation (team learning): Studies of traditional learning show cooperative learning results in about a 50% improvement over either solo or competitive learning (meta-analysis of 122 studies by Johnson et al, Psych. Bull89 (1981) 47-62. MMOG’s. For more info, see How People Learn, Washington, DC: National Academies Press (2000).

17. Learning Better - Biology • Over millennia of evolution, our brains have learned to discard most information and retain only that which is important. • “Important” is defined by the brain as “emotionally significant;” i.e., provoking a chemical release in the amygdala. The Learning Laboratory in Denmark* puts the issue most succinctly “The fact is that we are not even masters of our own conscious memory. What we remember and what we do not is subject to an emotional control, which follows a simple principle. If a given impression has emotional meaning we learn it. If it does not trigger emotional response it is not learned. In this case amygdala works as a kind of ‘emotiometer’, which regulates hippocampus and conscious learning. This serves a purpose: to economise the resources with regard to what to learn. So, if you want someone to remember what you say, make sure that it has emotional meaningfor the person who has to remember it." Ever wonder why you were unable to learn anything until the fear of the final exam was upon you? *Nikolaj Ilsted Bech, “Neuroscience Speaks for Practice-Oriented Learning,” Quarterly Online (Spring 2003). http://www.lld.dk/publications/quarterlyonline/x2003-issue1/artikler/neurosciencespeaks/en.

18. Learning Better - Biology Study of Koepp et al: • Researchers monitor game players during video game play; players show steady increases in dopamine levels in the striatum (which receives these chemical signals from amygdala). • Gamer’s performance increases, simultaneous with the dopamine increases. The correlation between emotional stimulation (dopamine levels) and performance is strong and linear. • For their particular game, the data of the Koepp study show game players reach dopamine/performance levels about twice those of non-players. M.J. Koepp et al., ”Evidence for Striatal Dopamine Release During a Video Game,”Nature 393 (1998), 266-267

19. Learning Better - Outcomes Data • Work of North Dakota State University Group: • Developed two virtual world-based games for college students: Geology Explorer and Virtual Cell • Compared test performance of students using these virtual world-based games to both web-based presentation of the material and traditional classroom lectures. • The web-presented information increased test scores by a margin that ranged from not statistically significant (geology) to 13-30% (cell biology). • The games further increased learning outcomes to either 15-40% (Geography Explorer) or 30-63% (Virtual Cell) over lecture. These outcomes suggest it is not merely visual representation, but active engagement that stimulates improved learning. Reference:McClean, P., Saini-Eidukat, B., Schwert, D., Slator, B., & White, A. (2001). Virtual Worlds in Large Enrollment Science Classes Significantly Improve Authentic Learning, in J.A. Chambers (Ed.) Selected Papers from the 12th Intl. Conf. on College Teaching and Learning. Jacksonville, FL: Center for the Advancement of Teaching and Learning, 111-118.

20. Learning Better - Outcomes Data • .Work of Kurt Squires • Used Supercharged, a game developed at MIT (John Belcher, Andrew McKinney) to teach electromagnetic forces and interactions. • Pre-test, post-test, control group. • The control group receiving interactive lectures improved their understanding by 15% over their pre-test scores. • Those who played with the game instead improved their understanding by 28%. • Among girls, the control group (lecture only) improved on their pre-test scores by only 5%, the simulation group by 23%. Thus, at least in this one study, lectures alone did nothing for girls. • Reference: Squire, K., Barnett, M., Grant, J.M., & Higginbotham, T. (2004). Electromagnetism Supercharged! Learning Physics with Digital Simulation Games. Proceedings of the 2004 International Conference of the Learning Sciences. Los Angeles: UCLA Press.

21. Time On Task • The average time spent by teenagers in video game play is 5-8 hours/week. This is almost exactly equal to the time spent on homework by college-bound high school students. Reference: Sax, L.J.; Lindholm, J. A.; Astin, A.W.; Korn, W.S.; and Mahoney, K.M, The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2001. Los Angeles: the Higher Education Research Institute, 2001.

22. Ender's Game for Science and Engineering: Games for Real, For Now, or We Lose the Brain War • Ender’s Game: Ultimate Game • Brain War: Struggle to Generate Top S&E Talent • ? “for Real, for Now”?

23. For Real, For Now • Need is certainly now: U.S. already behind in many aspects of S&E. • Physics leadership, strong in mid-80s, has been surpassed by other parts of the world. Papers published in Physical Review (Industrial Physicist, Oct/Nov 2004 issue; p. 13).

24. For Real, For Now • More importantly, opportunity is now: • Strong similarity between serious games field now, and nanotechnology in early 90’s • Field starts with 1-2 conferences that attract maybe 30 people each. • A few years later, there are now a handful of independent conferences, but • Researchers still “disguising” their work with other names to get it funded (“ultrafine composite”= nanomaterial; “interactive learning environment” = game) • Terminology still not standardized. in nanotech, it was the issue of what was considered nano (0.1-1,000,000 nm??; finally resolved to 1-100 nm). Here it seems to be the use of the words “serious games.” • No coherent source of funding • Independent conferences soon attract hundreds, rather than tens, of attendees. • Soon, major divisions of existing professional societies take up the mantra . . .host sessions devoted to topic • Funding agencies develop targeted funding programs • (Sometimes) National initiative develops (national nanotechnology initiative) We are here