Macroeconomics & HIV/AIDS in the South African Context. Gavin George HEARD The Health Economics & HIV/AIDS Research Division. Presentation Structure. Economic Impacts African Context Specifically South African Macro Consequences of HIV / AIDS Policy Constraints & Pro-Poor Policy
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The Health Economics & HIV/AIDS Research Division
Three channels forimpacting the economy
AIDS treatment (including opportunistic diseases) reduction in savings lower accumulation of capital.
AIDS invalidity reduction in labour participation.
AIDS Alteration of the long-term choices of the agents (households and firms) lower investment in physical & ‘human capital’ (education, knowledge, know-how)
Source: “Impact of AIDS,” United Nations Secretariat, Population Division
In considering how to analyze the macro impacts of HIV/AIDS, there are several salient features of the AIDS epidemic that are likely to have substantial economic implications:
These features of the AIDS epidemic will combine and interact with South Africa’s economic structure to affect wages, income distribution, savings rates and other economic variables.
Macroeconomic policy constraints =
Ultimate goal of growth promotion and Poverty Alleviation?
Debt Relief & International Subsidy Priorities will help!