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Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011

Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011. Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra, Australia March 2, 2011. Situation Facing Livestock and Poultry Producers in 2011. Higher feed prices Corn: $5.60/bu in 2011/12

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Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011

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  1. Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra, Australia March 2, 2011

  2. Situation Facing Livestock and Poultry Producers in 2011 Higher feed prices Corn: $5.60/bu in 2011/12 $5.05-$5.75/buin 2010/11 $3.55 in 2009/2010 Soybean meal: $360/short ton $340-380/ton in 2010/11 $311 in 2009/2010 Shrinking returns

  3. Higher Feed Bites into Gains in Livestock and Poultry Prices * Forecast

  4. Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011 Offsetting meat production Beef, lamb & mutton, and turkey lower Pork and broilers higher

  5. Red Meat and Poultry Production Will Increase 0.1 Percent in 2011 * Forecast

  6. Total Meat Production Fractionally Higher in 2011

  7. Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011 Offsetting meat production Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports Rising incomes fuel increased demand for meat protein Relatively weak U.S. dollar will support meat exports Trade issues remain irritants

  8. Red Meat Exports Higher in 2011

  9. Red Meat Exports Represent Increasing Share of Production * Forecast

  10. Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011 Offsetting meat production Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports Domestic supply impacts mixed Larger broiler meat net supplies Smaller beef, pork, and turkey net supplies

  11. Total Per Capita Retail Basis Meat Disappearance in 2011 at about 94 Kilos * Forecast

  12. Highlights for Livestock & Poultry in 2011 Offsetting meat production Stronger red meat exports but weaker broiler exports Domestic supply impacts mixed Gradual economic improvement U.S. GDP growth about 3 percent Unemployment gradually declining

  13. Livestock & Poultry Prices Mostly Higher in 2011 * At midpoint

  14. Despite Price Increase, Chicken Will Maintain Pricing Advantage at Retail * Forecast

  15. Cattle Herd at 92.6 Million on Jan 1, 2011; Further Contraction Likely Million Head * Forecast

  16. Beef Cows 1 Percent Lower Jan. 1, 2011. Calf Crop Declines in 2010 Million Head * Forecast Calf Crop

  17. Cattle for Feeding Lower on January 1 -1.3% +2.8% Million Head -3.3%

  18. Cow Slaughter Will Decline In 2011 Million Head * Forecast

  19. Cattle Imports Decline to 2.1 Million Head In 2011 Million Head * Forecast

  20. Herds in Canada and Mexico Shrink Million Head

  21. Average Cattle Carcass Weights Near Record in 2011 Kilograms * Forecast

  22. Beef Exports Increase 2 PercentBeef Imports Increase 4 Percent Million metric tons * Forecast

  23. 2010 Exports Higher to Several Major Markets * Forecast

  24. Additional information about the 2011 outlook is available at the following websites: World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm Economic Research Service (ERS)Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/ Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp

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