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The Best-Laid Plans of Mice and Men; Katrina The Lessons of Space and Time. James E. Mitchell, Ph. D. IT GIS Manager. Hurricane Georges September 1998. Hurricane Ivan September 2004. Hurricane Dennis July 2005. Evacuation Routes Around the New Orleans Metropolitan Area.

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the best laid plans of mice and men katrina the lessons of space and time

The Best-Laid Plans of Mice and Men; KatrinaThe Lessons of Space and Time

James E. Mitchell, Ph. D.

IT GIS Manager

slide6

GIS Analysis to Develop a

Staged Evacuation Plan

2005 louisiana emergency evacuation plan
2005 LouisianaEmergency Evacuation Plan
  • 72 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Stage Assets and Personnel
  • 50 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase I
  • 40 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase II
  • 30 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Evacuate Phase III - Contraflow
  • 6 hrs from Tropical Storm Wind Landfall Terminate Contraflow – Secure Assets and Personnel
slide11

HURREVAC

Storm Forecasts to Support Emergency Management

slide12

H-120

Monitor storm, alert Districts, review plans,

and partial Activation of DOTD EOC

slide13

H-102

Mobilize Coach and Pet Transportation and Staging Areas, activate selected DOTD EOC support agency representatives

slide14

H-96

Staff State EOC, alert Contra-flow, Levee, Waterway & Bridge Coordinators implement LOOP Emergency Plan

slide15

H-72

Fully staff DOTD EOC, activate Damage Assessment & Contra-flow plans, instruct contractors to clear construction projects on evacuation routes, monitor transportation infrastructure, estimate potential amount of debris, staff State Police Traffic Control Center

slide16

H-60

LANG Provides 100 bus drivers (if necessary)

slide17

H-54

All Coaches at Staging Areas and

are proceeding to Parish Pick Up Points

slide18

H-50

Phase I Evacuation Implement Waterways and Bridges Emergency Plans Coordinate evacuation plans with neighboring states

slide19

H-40

Phase II EvacuationProvide evacuation information to ESF 15

Mobilizing Contra-flow resources

slide20

H-30

Phase III Evacuation

Implement Contra-flow Bus operations cease

slide21

H-6

Contra-flow terminated and resources secured

slide22

What Really Happened?

H-49.5- Initiation of DOTD Emergency Operations (H-72)

H-28 - Phase I Evacuation (H-50)

H-25 - Phase II Evacuation (H-40)

H-21 - Phase III Evacuation (H-30)

H+4 - Contra-flow Ceases (H-6)

results the most successful evacuation of a major metropolitan area in history
ResultsThe Most Successful Evacuation of a Major Metropolitan Area in History
  • 1.38 Million People Evacuated
  • 66 Hour Plan Completed in 43.5 Hours
    • 10 Hours of Contra-flow Added
  • No Major incidents to Impede Operation
    • Breakdowns
    • Out of Gas
    • Crashes
    • Medical Emergencies
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Timelines are Important!
    • They provide a single procedure to coordinate multiple participants
    • They provide guidance for what to do now, and what to do next
    • They provide a context for drills to practice response
    • They provide a yardstick for progress during an event
  • Flexibility is Important!
    • Timeline boundaries must build-in some “play” to allow for dynamic situations
    • Missing a milestone does not mean failure
    • Timelines can be slowed or accelerated to meet situational needs