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ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTHEAST - THE VIEW FROM THE INCUBATOR Hector Galbraith Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences
INCUBATOR? Northeast has become leader in climate change impacts and adaptation because of three-way confluence: • Major strategic investments (Duke, NEAFWA, state and federal agencies, other foundations) • Willingness of states and federal agencies to confront challenge • Involvement of NGOs (NWF, TNC, Manomet, UCS…) Many of approaches developed in NE are now models for the rest of the U.S. – VA Guidance
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE – THE BIG QUESTIONS • Which resources are vulnerable? • How do we manage resources under climate change? • Climate-smart acquisition strategies? • Implementation – how can science affect policy?
ADAPTATION PROGRESS IN THE NORTHEAST • Vulnerability assessment - what is being done? • Who is doing it? • What are the next big challenges? • Coastal birds and wetlands • Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs)
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT - MASSACHUSETTS PROJECT Logistics: Funding source – Doris Duke grant administered by Wildlife Conservation Society Timeline – 18 month project begun in April/May 2008. Concludes this October Collaborative – Manomet, DFW, TNC
Massachusetts Project - Objectives • To put climate change on “front burner” of conservation planning • To evaluate vulnerabilities of habitats and SGNC in SWAP • To identify management opportunities and strategies • To inform future land acquisition policies
Habitat Vulnerability Note: the leftmost bar in each pair represents a doubling of CO2, while the right bar is a tripling.
BEYOND MASSACHUSETTS – PROGRESS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST NWF/Manomet holding climate change workshops in: • New Jersey • New York • Massachusetts • Vermont • New Hampshire
ADAPTATION PLANNING IN THE NORTHEAST Adaptation steering committees formed in: • Massachusetts (Climate Change and Wildlife Alliance) • Vermont • New Jersey • New York Comprise, state agencies, NGOs, feds
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE NORTHEAST Massachusetts – species and habitats – completed Virginia – species – ongoing New Jersey – species (?) – beginning New York – habitats and species – beginning Maine – comprehensive VA. Moving on to species and habitats VA
Next BIG Challenges • Regional focus (vulnerability and investments) • Beyond resilience - effective on-the-ground tools and solutions • Climate change, ecoservices, and communities • Landscape-level, multi-sectoral adaptation • Climate-smart policy
MANOMET/USFWS COASTAL PROJECT Manomet is working with USFWS at three NWRs (Monomoy, Chincoteague, Forsythe) to: • Help reserve staff address implications of climate change • Develop a protocol for assessing site vulnerabilities • Begin to identify potential adaptation options
PARKER RIVER – SLAMM MODELLING 2100 Cloughand Larsen, 2009 0.39m 1.0m
COASTAL CONSERVATION PLANNING UNDER SLR • We are forming a coherent picture of how habitats will be affected at particular sites (all SLR is local!)
Future Sea Level Rise at North (left) and South (right) San Francisco Bays Galbraith et al., 2002
COASTAL CONSERVATION PLANNING UNDER SLR • We have not yet addressed major question – where will these systems “want to go to” • Our data set is not adequate (need more LiDAR)
NORTH ATLANTIC LCC AND CLIMATE CHANGE Provides major opportunity to address and resolve climate challenges in Northeast: • Regionalization (VA, science, policy) • Landscape-scale planning • Building “climate-smart” adaptation approaches • Capacity building • Coordination and integration of knowledge/effort
NORTH ATLANTIC LCC AND CLIMATE CHANGE - PROJECTS • Coastal migration at sites (more LiDAR data) • Regional vulnerability assessment (habitats, species) • Development and testing of adaptation approaches • Landscape-scale adaptation planning • Capacity building in states, NGOs, landtrusts, private owners.
NORTH ATLANTIC LCC AND CLIMATE CHANGE • Need to coordinate with other LCCs • Is climate change a scientific challenge – YES • Even more of an organizational challenge