LOT30 Task 8: Scenario-, policy-, impact- and sensitivity analysis First Draft

1. LOT30 Task 8: Scenario-, policy-, impact- and sensitivity analysis First Draft

2. Presentation Title Background Analysis

3. Presentation Title Summary of identified energy savings IE values in the product description are those assumed for the basecase. Task 7 explains why VSD energy “savings” are largely negative.

4. Presentation Title Projected Energy Savings Energy Savings (TWh) • Cumulative energy savings, by measure, for different motor types. • Reference ETP line shown (top), which is largely due to the technical option of increasing MEPS for Induction motors to IE4. • All referenced to a common start date (tbd). 2018 suggested. • VSD energy savings not shown. Year No.

5. Presentation Title Erratum: Updated VSD Prices

6. Presentation Title LCC Analysis of different Options Least LCC shown in bold EU average energy price 0.0935 €/kWh Basecase 3-7: BAT2 is IE4 Basecase 8 – 12: BAT1 actually the basecase Basecase 19-21: BAT5 is Synchronous Reluctance Motor

7. Presentation Title Sensitivity Analysis Example 1. Single phase induction motor These graphs show the sensitivity of payback to changes in running hours – see Task 7 for a complete set and discussion EU average energy price 0.0935 €/kWh

8. Presentation Title Sensitivity Analysis Example 2. Medium sized Induction motor EU average energy price 0.0935 €/kWh

9. Presentation Title Options for Regulation

10. Presentation Title 3 Phase LV Motors • Increase the MEPS for “LOT 11” motors to IE3 for all motors (0.75kW to 375kW). This removes the existing “IE2 + VSD” concession. • (Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, USA have IE3 as MEPS with no VSD concession). • Include Brake and Explosion proof motors in scope. (25% of the energy savings of the 0.75 – 375kW Induction motor category. This is 1.1TWhpa) • Increase the size span for 3 phase motors to: - A minimum of 120W ? - A maximum of 1,000 kW ? (NB We do not have to follow IEC60034-30 scope)

11. Presentation Title Single Phase Motors • The largest energy saving potential is for single phase motors, which would follow from US regulations for these products. • Note that the data here is for ALL single phase motors (90Million stock). Of these, 67M are induction or shaded pole motors, the rest mainly Universal motors. • Regulations only proposed for induction and shaded pole motors. Universal motors have too low running hours to justify regulation, (the brushgear used only has a limited life).

12. Presentation Title General Exclusions? • Motors to be used in portable apparatus where weight is an issue and/or there is a low duty. Possible basis of distinction: • Cordless products? • Products supported by hand during operation, (eg hand held power tools).? • Wheeled products that move as part of their operation (eg mobile cleaning equipment)? ONLY EXCLUDE BATTERY OPERATED? • Portable equipment that are moved from application to application (eg portable de-watering pumps)?

13. Presentation Title MV Induction Motors • These are specialist types heavy energy consumers where there is already pressure for high efficiencies. The achievable energy savings might therefore be much less than shown. • No other countries currently regulate these products, (although China has a labeling and incentives scheme). • Therefore No Proposals for MV Induction Motors.

14. Presentation Title VSDs • There is very little energy saving potential from improving VSDs. There are therefore No Proposals for VSD MEPS. • Analysis of “Motor + VSD” combinations is more complex, (hence the negative energy savings). The total losses comprise Motor + VSD + Additional motor harmonic losses. Given that there is no potential for VSD (alone) savings, there is no additional saving in the “VSD plus IE3 / IE4 motors” beyond that for the use of IE3 or IE4 motors alone. • It should be noted that the wider system energy savings from the use of variable speed motors is not considered, which does of course represent very big energy savings. This factor is probably best recognised through the Extended Product Approach.

15. Presentation Title Economic Analysis of the IE2+VSD vs IE3 options For an 11kW Motor there are two options (Euros): IE3 Motor 690 OR IE2 Motor 600M + VSD 1200 + VSD Installation 200 2000 Therefore the IE3 Motor is 1310 euros cheaper. The key question is who on economic grounds will opt for the IE2+VSD option unless they want a VSD anyway?

16. Presentation Title Payback analysis of VSD Motor Options This analysis is to show more clearly the benefits of using a more efficient VSD+Motorcombination

17. Presentation Title Promotion SR & PM units • “SR or PM motor plus VSD combinations” are particularly attractive because of their lower motor losses (fundamental and harmonic losses) and attractive cost, although thought will be required as to how this might be presented. • However, there is little energy saving reason for regulating VSDs, and so how can these devices be promoted? • It is also a consideration that increasing the price of VSDs through regulation might deter purchase of what is often an optional item. This would lead to big SYSTEM energy savings being lost. • Is an IE label adequate? And might it be confused with the motor IE scheme? Would an efficiency rating for losses and /or standby be useful?

18. Presentation Title Submersible Motors – (WWT) • For Waste Water Treatment submersible pump motors, these will need to be specifically included. • For testing, means will need to be found to simulate cooling + to mount the motor horizontally. Manufacturers currently use their own methods, but there seems to be a will to harmonise these. • USA intends to also include these motors in their regulations.

19. Presentation Title Submersible Borehole Pump Motors – (Clean Water) • For CLEAN water submersible pump motors, include this as a new category. These are special motors with a standard NEMA flange. • Similar considerations relate to testing these motors.

20. www.eco-motors-drives.eu/