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National Blend of Global Models An Overview. Jeff Waldstreicher NOAA/NWS Eastern Region HQ Bohemia, NY. 15 th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop November 12-13, 2014 – Albany, NY. Origins of the National Model Blend. REASONING. Local / Regional Model Blend Initiatives.

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National blend of global models an overview

National Blend of Global ModelsAn Overview

Jeff Waldstreicher

NOAA/NWS Eastern Region HQ

Bohemia, NY

15th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop

November 12-13, 2014 – Albany, NY

Origins of the national model blend
Origins of the National Model Blend


Local / Regional

Model Blend Initiatives

WRN Roadmap

NAPA Report


Sandy Supplemental

JPSS Gap Mitigation:

projects that make better use of existing model data

Early roots in regional blends
Early Roots in Regional Blends

  • Improvements in verification and consistency scores for the NWS National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

  • Operational Efficiencies


  • Sustainability of the regional solution?

  • Consistency between regional approaches and national centers?

  • Model data dissemination limitations?

Early roots in regional blends1
Early Roots in Regional Blends

Need a national system:

  • Harness full capabilities of NWP systems and national computing power

  • Full suite of ensembles

  • Employ state of the art statistical post processing techniques

    • Downscaling

    • Bias Correction

  • Enable enhanced consistency within NWS forecast information

    National Blend of Models

National model blender project
National Model Blender Project

  • Develop a set of next-generation foundational gridded guidance products for NDFD weather elements based on NWS and non-NWS model information.









National model blender project objective
National Model Blender Project Objective

Improve qualityand consistency of the

NWS National Digital Forecast Database

Improve operational efficiency

6-8 hrs. of manual grid manipulation

Current NWS Forecaster

Leverage skill of guidance to assist with freeing up time to focus on DSS and hazardous weather operations

The national blend project
The National Blend Project

Create a NWS methodology for a national blend (“best”) product, beginning with the Day 3 - 8 time frame (Phase I)

Extensible to a full set of NWS deterministic and probabilistic products covering days 1-10 (Phase II).







National blend project phase i
National Blend Project – Phase I

Focus on Days 3- 8, so initial development efforts are concentrated on global deterministic and ensemble systems

  • Gridded Guidance Products:

  • Max/Min Temperature

  • 3-hr Temp and Dewpoint

  • Wind speed and direction

  • Sky Cover

  • PoP

  • Precipitation Type

  • QPF

National blend project phase ii
National Blend Project – Phase II

Additional Elements:

  • Snowfall Amount

  • Wind Gusts

  • Predominant Weather

  • Others as needed*

    *Derive where it makes sense to ensure consistency, efficiency: i.e. Relative Humidity, Apparent Temperature

    Expansion to Days 1-10

  • Non-global NWP systems

    (e.g., NAM, SREF)

    Development of a suite of probabilistic guidance

National blend of global models an overview

  • The National Blend will be distributed twice daily.

    • WPC will provide oversight of the National Blend for Days 3-8 to maintain meteorological and spatial consistency.

    • WFO’s will receive both objective and WPC (edited) grids.





8 sub projects funded from sandy supplemental 2 2 million
8 Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million

  • Lead efforts of post-processing team, contribute GEFS Reforecast data sets, contribute to PoP/QPF development and new blending approaches, participate in evaluation (Hamill; OAR/ESRL/PSD)

  • Advanced MOS statistical post-processing techniques for calibration of NDFD variables and blending of model output (Gilbert; OST/MDL)

  • Expand NAEFS post-processing (Zhu; NCEP/EMC)

Sub projects funded from sandy supplemental 2 2 million
Sub-Projects Funded from Sandy Supplemental ~$2.2 million

  • Accelerate URMA/RTMA improvements for use as “Analysis of Record” in model blender (DiMego/Pondeca; NCEP/EMC)

  • Perform grid-to-grid and grid-to-point verifications (Ruth; OST/MDL)

  • Data management and visualization tools to improve collaboration (Gilbert; OST/MDL)

  • Transition NCEP’s WPC blending and ensemble visualization capability to AWIPS II for the NCEP Perspective (Mainelli; NCEP/NCO)

  • Training (Mostek/Bua; COMET)

Consistency nws standard terrain
Consistency - NWS Standard Terrain

Different terrain used in downscaling systems

(AWIPS D2D display, GFE, RTMA)

GFE - RTMA Terrain

All shaded areas represent

differences greater than 100m

Example: Gridded MOS 2-m T @ 12 hours, diff > 10oF

Consistency nws standard terrain1
Consistency - NWS Standard Terrain

  • Development groups, including those responsible for post-processing and those responsible for the analysis will downscale to the same terrain in use by the WFOs in GFE.

    • Develop methodology with schedule to merge local edits into a national terrain file

    • Develop procedures to create a gridded land/water mask for MDL and EMC downscaling applications consistent with the AWIPS terrain file and marine polygons

    • Scheduled for AWIPS 14.4.1, baselined by June 2015

    • Remaining Question: How do local terrain edits get back to a national file?

National blend of global models an overview

Project Management

Project Advisor

Steve Lord

Project Manager

Kathy Gilbert

Plenary Group (Regions, NWSEO, NCEP, OST, OCWWS, SPPO, OAR)

Working level Teams

Testing and Training

(Novak and Craven)

Analysis and Verification


Post Processing



(Settelmaier and Gilbert


(Sieveking and Gagan)

National blend of global models an overview

National Blend – Analysis & Verification

Multi-Panel Graphical Interface created by MDL:

  • Initial evaluations of individual components of the blend

  • Prototype National Blend grids

  • Provide feedback to RTMA developers

  • Provide feedback to Blend developers

  • Show verification of experimental blends

  • Coming Soon:

  • Ability to overlay surface observations

  • Grid-based and point-based verification statistics for prototype blends

National blend of global models an overview

National Blend Project - Evaluation

  • Internal Evaluation through Summer 2015 (Testing and Evaluation Team)

  • Formal Evaluation Sept 2015 – Mar 2016

  • Analysis of Accuracy, Consistency, and Workload (focused on NDFD, WPC, and National Blend)

WFO input will be key component of evaluation.

National blend project training
National Blend Project - Training

  • Overview of the National Blend

  • Components of the National Blend

  • Statistical Techniques & Procedures

  • National Blend Verification

  • National Blend Reliability

  • WPC Procedures



…or time for some liquid blends…