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EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options. CCTAME – Kick-Off Meeting Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University Contributions from

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Eufasom inputs outputs linkage options

EUFASOM – Inputs, Outputs, Linkage Options

CCTAME – Kick-Off Meeting

Uwe A. Schneider

Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Contributions from

Contributors: E. Schmid, O. Franklin, C.I. Ramos, C. Schleupner, K. Jantke, R. Skalsky, J. Balkovic, P. Havlik, I. Huck, A. Moseyev, A.M.I. Kallio, M. Obersteiner, S. de Cara, B. McCarl, S. Fritz


Forest and agricultural sector optimization model fasom
Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model - FASOM

  • Partial Equilibrium, Bottom-Up Model

  • Maximizes sum of consumer and producer surplus

  • Constrained by resource endowments, technologies, policies

  • Spatially explicit, discrete dynamic

  • Integrates environmental effects

  • Programmed in GAMS


Eufasom inputs outputs linkage options

Land use

competition


Fasom history
FASOM History

  • US (1993)

  • EU (2004)

  • Global (2006)


Fasom structure
FASOM Structure

Limits

Limits

Resources

Land Use

Technologies

Products

Markets

Inputs

Demand

Functions,

Trade

Processing Technologies

Environmental

Impacts

Supply

Functions

Limits


Scientific questions
Scientific Questions

  • Mitigation Potential of Climate Policies?

  • Land Management Adaptation?

  • Commodity Market Impacts?

  • Environmental Side Effects?

  • Social Side Effects?


Challenges
Challenges

  • Heterogeneity (Resources, Technologies)

  • Complexity (Mitigation Options, Markets, Externalities, Policies)

  • Global Scope


Fasom spatial resolution of input data
FASOM - Spatial Resolution of Input Data

  • Political regions

  • Ownership (forests)

  • Farm types

  • Farm size

  • Soil texture

  • Stone content

  • Altitude levels

  • Slopes

  • Soil state

  • Many crop and tree species

  • Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization harvest regime


Eufasom inputs outputs linkage options

Homogeneous Response Units

  • Altitude:

  • < 300 m

  • 300-600 m

  • 600-1100 m

  • >1100 m

  • Slope Class:

  • 0-3%

  • 3-6%

  • 6-10%

  • 10-15%

DE11

DE12

  • Texture:

  • Coarse

  • Medium

  • Medium-fine

  • Fine

  • Very fine

DE14

  • Soil Depth:

  • shallow

  • medium

  • deep

DE13

  • Stoniness:

  • Low content

  • Medium content

  • High content


Eufasom dynamics
EUFASOM Dynamics

  • 5 (to 20) year time steps

  • State of forests (and soil organic matter)

  • Technical progress

  • Demand & industry growth

  • Resource and global change

  • Policy scenarios


Eufasom input data
EUFASOM – Input Data

  • Resource Data

  • Technological Data

  • Market & Policy Data


Eufasom data
EUFASOM Data

FOREST_DATA(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)

PEREN_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)

CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)

ECO_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)

LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)

FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)

PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)

PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)

MARKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM)

TRADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)

RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM)

STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)

LUC_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLITEM)


Forest management data
Forest Management Data

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWSawLogs 613.3046

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.SWPulpLogs 32.2792

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.AgeValue 165.5000

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Area 2459.4700

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.Carbon 183.1328

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TreeNumber 146.4092

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.TotalBiomass 366.2655

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.StemBiomass 245.3218

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.BranchBiomass 62.8024

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DeadWoodmass 37.5675

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.DecompRate 0.0440

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.FinalHarvBiomass 245.3218

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.MeanTreeHarvBM 1.7540

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestLabour 24.4956

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestCost 2598.5695

Czec.2040_45.Spruce.200-205.NoThin.HarvestDiesel 1123.2615


Crop management data
Crop Management Data

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Corn 9.4582

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Land 2959.6516

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Cost 559.7052

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.FarmLabour 61.6533

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.HiredLabour 35.7446

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fertilizer 191.4397

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Pesticides 110.2057

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Seed 121.9582

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Fuel 51.5004

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Rent 127.1415

FRAN.LT300.Crop.MDHG.Corn.RfCvSt.Wage 7.5052


Eufasom output data
EUFASOM – Output Data

  • Resource Usage

  • Land Use Distribution

  • Market Prices, Trade


Eufasom equations
EUFASOM Equations

OBJECTIVE_EQU

RESOURCEBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)

RESOURCEMAX_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)

LUC_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)

LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)

SOILSTATE_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE)

FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH)

STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK)

EMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE)

PRODUCTBAL_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)

MINFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)

MAXFEED_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)


Eufasom variables
EUFASOM Variables

FOREST_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH)

PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH)

CROP_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CROPTECH)

ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTECH)

RESOURCE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE)

LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)

EMIT_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE)

LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH)

FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH)

PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH)

DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)

SUPPLY_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT)

TRADE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT)


I european agricultural sector results

I European Agricultural Sector Results


2010 eu bioenergy targets
2010 EU Bioenergy Targets

  • 21% Renewable Electricity

    ≈ 610 thousand GWh

    ≈ 300 million wet tons of biomass

  • 5.75% Bio-Fuels


Biomass crop share for 300 mt target

0

25

50

75

100

Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target


Climate mitigation vs biodiversity protection

Climate Mitigationvs. BiodiversityProtection


2010 eu biodiversity targets
2010 EU Biodiversity Targets

  • 2001: European Council committed to ‘halt the decline of biodiversity by 2010’ in Europe

  • 2002: EU joined about 130 countries in agreeing ‘to significantly reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010‘ worldwide

    BUT

  • Biodiversity loss still accelerating

  • Reservation often ad hoc and uncoordinated

  • 2010 only three years away


Habitat needs
Habitat Needs

Simulations with the independent 69 species based habitat module of EUFASOM show that 10, 20, 30, 40 viable populations for each species require 22, 35, 42, and 61 million hectares, respectively, in specific locations


Wetland area share for a 40 mha target

0

25

50

75

100

Wetland Area Share for a 40 Mha Target


Biomass crop share for 300 mt target1

0

25

50

75

100

Biomass Crop Share for 300 Mt Target


Eu25 bioenergy potentials
EU25 Bioenergy Potentials

600

Wetland Requirement = 40 Mha

500

400

Marginal Biomass Costs in Euro/ton

300

30 Mha

200

10 Mha

100

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

European Biomass Production in million wet tons


Wetland downscaling

Wetland Downscaling

Source: Schleupner and Schneider (2008), A cost-efficient spatial wetland site-selection model for European biotope restoration, http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/


Link to other models
Link to other models

  • Climate Models

    • Indirect link

  • Geographic Assessments

    • upscaling

    • downscaling

  • Biophysical Models

    • Environmental impacts

  • Agro-Economic Models

    • Consistency between farm level and sector level models

  • Full Economy Models

    • Exogenous drivers

    • Response functions


Ii us agricultural sector results

II US Agricultural Sector Results

Mainly based on McCarl and Schneider (2001). Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S.Agriculture and Forestry. SCIENCE 294:2481-2481.


Us agricultural mitigation
US Agricultural Mitigation

500

450

400

350

Technical

Potential

Competitive

Economic

Potential

300

Carbon price (Euro/tce)

250

200

150

100

50

0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation (mmtce)


Us mitigation strategy mix
US Mitigation Strategy Mix

500

Afforestation

Sink

400

Tillage

Carbon

Sink

300

Carbon price ($/tce)

CH4

N2O

Decrease

200

Bioenergy

Emission

Offsets

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Emission reduction (mmtce)


Us tillage carbon sink
US Tillage Carbon Sink

500

400

Economic

Potential

300

Carbon price ($/tce)

Competitive

Economic

Potential

200

Technical

Potential

100

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Soil carbon sequestration (mmtce)


Us afforestation sink
US Afforestation Sink

500

400

Economic

Potential

Competitive

Economic

Potential

300

Carbon price ($/tce)

200

Technical

Potential

100

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Emission reduction (mmtce)


Us bioenergy emission offsets
US Bioenergy Emission Offsets

500

Economic

Potential

400

Competitive

Economic

Potential

300

Carbon price ($/tce)

200

Technical

Potential

100

0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Emission reduction (mmtce)


Us crop management impacts
US Crop Management Impacts

115

110

Irrigation

105

Intensity (Base = 100%)

100

95

Tillage

90

85

Fertilization

80

75

0

100

200

300

400

500

Carbon equivalent price ($/mtce)


Us agricultural markets
US Agricultural Markets

220

200

Crop prices

180

160

140

Livestock prices

Fisher index

120

Livestock production

100

80

60

Crop production

Crop exports

40

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Carbon price ($/tce)


Eufasom inputs outputs linkage options

US Welfare Changes

8

6

4

Gross Producer Surplus

2

Net Producer

Surplus

0

Billion $

-2

Emission

Payments

-4

-6

ConsumerSurplus

-8

-10

0

20

40

60

80

100

Carbon price ($/tce)


Us environmental co effects
US Environmental Co-Effects

100

N Subsurface Flow

90

80

N Percolation

Pollution (%/acre)

70

Soil Erosion

60

50

P Loss

40

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Carbon price ($/tce)


Emission leakage
Emission Leakage

160

Non-Annex I crop net exports for

agricultural GHG mitigation policy in:

150

140

Fisher’s Ideal Index

130

USA Only

120

Annex I Countries

110

100

All Countries

90

0

20

40

60

80

100

Carbon price ($/tce)