Project Title and Principal Investigator

1. Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08)ONR/NRL Funded Projects Background Project Title and Principal Investigator Scientific Objectives Field Experiment Requirements • A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) has been developed for prediction of tropical cyclone track, structure and intensity (COAMPS-TC). The COAMPS-TC includes new air-sea flux and microphysics parameterizations that have led to improved intensity forecasts. • Using mesoscale adjoints to study TC genesis is new and attractive because of the multi-scale nature of the problem and to test the existing TC genesis hypotheses. COAMPS-TC (ONR-Funded Project) James Doyle (james.doyle@nrlmry.navy.mil) Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA 93943-5502 • Assess the skill of COAMPS-TC applied at high-resolution and in real-time in support of TCS-08. The COAMPS-TC will be tested in real-time for genesis and TC track, structure and intensity using a moving nested grid mesh capability. • Validate the structure and intensity forecasts for COAMPS-TC using all available observations during TCS08. • Use COAMPS adjoint sensitivity and field observations to learn about important multi-scale mechanisms impacting mesoscale predictability during TC genesis and the early portion of intensification (as time and funding permit). • Observations of track, structure and intensity to evaluate the real-time COAMPS-TC forecasts. Observations of the convection will be useful to validate the capability of the model to predict genesis. • Observe sensitive and non-sensitive regions during formation, genesis, and early intensification period using the C130 dropsonde measurements, off-time soundings, and additional satellite data. • Have as much data as possible on GTS for real-time and post-time assimilation.