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The Impact of Economic Factors on Mortality and Health at Oldest-Old Ages in China

The Impact of Economic Factors on Mortality and Health at Oldest-Old Ages in China. Zhong Zhao China Center for Economic Research Peking University August 2, 2004 Prepared for The workshop on “Determinants of Health Longevity in China”

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The Impact of Economic Factors on Mortality and Health at Oldest-Old Ages in China

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  1. The Impact of Economic Factors on Mortality and Health at Oldest-Old Ages in China Zhong Zhao China Center for Economic Research Peking University August 2, 2004 Prepared forThe workshop on “Determinants of Health Longevity in China” at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, August 2-4, 2004

  2. Outline • I. Introduction • II. Relevant Studies • III. Data Set and Description Statistics • IV. Estimations and Findings • V. Conclusions

  3. I. Introduction • The percentage of population over 65 • 1982: 4.91% • 1990: 5.57% • 2000: 6.96% • Aging Society: 7% • Population of the Oldest-Old (age over 80) • 2000: 13 millions • 2050: 114-168 millions (projected by Han and Yao, 2001)

  4. II. Relevant Studies • Economists: Clark et al. (1978), Hurd (1990) • Vaupel (1998): Overview • Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2001 • Analysis of the Determinants of Healthy Longevity, eds. Zeng et al. 2004 • Xu and Gu (2001): Rural-urban difference • Wang and Zeng (2001): Gender and Activities of Daily Living (ADL) • Lu and Chu (2004): Economic factors and ADL • Wu and Zhan (2004): Diet and Health • Gu (2004): Smoking, drinking and longevity • This paper : Economic factors, health and longevity

  5. III. Data Set and Description Statistics • Data Set • Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) • Description Statistics • Table 1. Characteristics by Health Status • Table 2. Characteristics by Health Status and Gender • Table 3. Characteristics by Life Status

  6. Table 1. Characteristics by Health Status (ADL)(%)

  7. Table 2. Characteristics by Health Status and Gender (%)

  8. Table 3. Characteristics by Life Status (%)

  9. IV. Estimations and Findings • Health Outcome: Multivariate Regression • Dependent variables: Activities of Daily Living (ADL). Three categories: active, mild disability and severe disability • Mortality: Probit Model • Dependent variables: binary indictor-survival in 2002 or not

  10. Table 4. Multivariate Regression for Health Status

  11. Table 5. Mortality Analysis by Probit Model

  12. V. Conclusions • Health care condition at childhood has no significant effect on the mortality, but has significant effect on the health of the oldest-old. • Financial self sufficiency is beneficial for the successful aging and health of the oldest-old, but not for the survival of the oldest-old. • Though there are more female oldest-olds than male oldest-olds, the health of female oldest-olds are worse than the health of the male oldest-old. • Gender has a significant effect on health status, but not on mortality.

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