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Adapting to climate change

Adapting to climate change. Jonathan Suk 30 June 2010. Drivers of emerging infectious diseases. Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens. Rank* Driver. 1 Changes in land use or agricultural practices.

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Adapting to climate change

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  1. Adapting to climate change Jonathan Suk 30 June 2010

  2. Drivers of emerging infectious diseases Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens Rank* Driver 1 Changes in land use or agricultural practices 2 Changes in human demographics and society 3 Poor population health, e.g. HIV, malnutrition 4 Hospitals and medial procedures 5 Pathogen evolution, e.g. antimicrobial drug resistance, increased virulence 6 Contamination of food sources or water supplies 7 International travel 8 Failure of public health programmes 9 International trade 10 Climate change * Ranked by the number of pathogen species associated with them (most to least). Source: Woolhouse, M.E.J. & Gowtage-Sequeria, S. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2005, Vol. 11(12): 1842-1847.

  3. Food- and water-borne pathogens with known climate links

  4. Vector-borne diseases/pathogens that may be linked to climate change in Europe *Disease not currently prevalent in continental EU region

  5. Current distribution of Aedes albopictus in the EU Source: Schaffner, F. Development of Aedesalbopictus risk maps. TigerMaps project. ECDC, Stockholm 2008. (Forthcoming.)

  6. Potential establishment under climatechange scenarios

  7. Climate change at ECDC • Vulnerability and risk assessments • International workshop on Environmental Change and Infectious Disease • International workshop on Linking Environmental and Epidemiologic Data • Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases in the EU (V-borne) • Impact of climate change on food- and water-borne (FWB) diseases in Europe • Risk maps for Aedesalbopictus • Risk maps for dengue fever and aedesaegypti • Adaptation strategies • Chikungunya communication toolkit • Adaptation and vulnerability toolkit • Response • ECDC/WHO risk assessment of chikungunya in northern Italy

  8. 1. Vector Surveillance: VBORNET • Objectives • To establish a network of expertise in entomology across the EU • To obtain data on vectors of primary concern to health in the EU (mosquitos, ticks) • To promote EU-wide harmonization of standards and methods for vector surveillance

  9. Surveillance Direct exposures(heat stroke, drowning…) CO2 CO2 CO2 Indirect exposures(vector-borne diseases, other infectious diseases) Climate change Environmental consequences Socio-economic impacts(homelessness, refugees…) time 2. Environmental monitoring Health outcomes

  10. 3. Adaptation handbook • Background • Climate change as a threat multiplier – addressing climate-sensitive diseases should also benefit public health today • Objectives • To assist EU Member States to conduct national and regional vulnerability assessments as concerns climate change and communicable diseases • To develop comprehensive advice for ECDC and EU Member States on how to implement regionally targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate against future communicable disease transmission due to climate change.

  11. Pragmatic approach • Identify baseline description (epidemiologic, socio-economic, current disease burden), and note it is changing alongside climate • Identify climate-sensitive diseases most relevant for a given region, and then weighing options for action • Identify climatic drivers (rainfall, drought, temperature) most relevant to these diseases • Develop adaptation strategies with future projections in mind, and engage other sectors where possible • Strategy needs to be evidence-based, but does not necessarily need to involve sophisticated modelling

  12. Assessment Process Aim, demarcation Organisational structure: Working group, reference group, etc Base-line description Climate, diseases, vulnerability factors Iterative process Assessment: Vulnerability and impacts Quality control Base-line description Adaptation measures Assessment: Adaptive strategies and measures Policy decision Follow-up/ monitoring: Impacts and measures

  13. Identifying priorities for action Probability of an outbreak/strength of climate change-disease relationship Weighted significance of climate change on the transmission of a specific infectious disease in an area High Medium Low High Medium Low Low Medium High Severity of consequence for society risk group

  14. Thank you. Jonathan.Suk@ecdc.europa.eu

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