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Veränderungen in einer vernetzen Welt – die METRO Group im neuen Mitmach -Web Andreas Weigend 2. August 2007 | Düsseldorf. people & data | weigend.com. What is Web 2.0?. Tim O’Reilly (2005): Web 2.0 is a set of economic, social, and technology trends

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slide1

Veränderungen in einervernetzen Welt –die METRO Group imneuenMitmach-Web

Andreas Weigend

2. August 2007 | Düsseldorf

people & data | weigend.com

what is web 2 0
What is Web 2.0?
  • Tim O’Reilly (2005):
  • Web 2.0 is
    • a set of economic, social, and technology trends
    • that collectively form the basis for
    • the next generation of the Internet—a more mature, distinctive medium
    • characterized by user participation, openness, and network effects.
the five levels
The five levels

Web 2.0

Web1.0

web1 0 vs web2 0 web1 0 web2 0
Web1.0 vs Web2.0 Web1.0 与 Web2.0
  • Web 1.0 : E-business Web 1.0 :电子商务
    • about pages, commerce关于网页和商业
      • Data gathering数据搜集
      • Experimentation试验
    • about impressions关于印象
  • Web 2.0: Me-BusinessWeb 2.0:我的商务
    • about people, individuals 关于人和个人
      • Participation, Contribution参与,贡献
      • Interaction互动
      • Group, Community, Collaboration团体,社区,协作
        • Crowdsourcing more than social networks不同于社会网络的扎堆
        • Future of work未来的工作
    • about the impressed关于留下印象的
attributes of web2 0
Attributes of Web2.0
  • User focus (E-Business  Me-business)
    • User is at the center of Web2.0
  • Transparency
    • Google Maps: Create API rather than tighten security
  • Technology
    • Lightweight
  • System engineered for feedback
    • System improves as people use it
  • Network effects
    • Demand-side economies of scale (not only supply-side economies of scale)
  • Incentives
    • Pay people (e.g., Yahoo directory index)
    • Get volunteers (e.g., wikipedia)
    • Create self-interest (e.g., BitTorrent; file sharing sites)
web 1 0 web 2 0
Web 1.0  Web 2.0
  • Background (2007)
    • 1 bn PCs, 2 bn mobile phones
    • 150M registered eBay users, more transactions per day than NYSE
    • 80M blogs total, 20 new entries per second, 2 new blogs created every second
    • US online advertising USD 15…20bn (12.5bn in 2005)
technology innovation
Technology innovation
  • Military
  • Enterprise
  • Consumer
    • Centralized
    • Top-down
  • Consumer
  • Enterprise
  • Consumer
    • De-centralized
    • Bottom up
user generated content ugc
User generated content (UGC)用户自创内容
  • Paying a few experts to create content  Users generated content雇几个专家来创造内容用户自己创造的内容
    • Implicit data and explicit data 隐含的数据+明确的数据
    • Incentives?激励运作?
    • Metadata元数据
      • Example: Music例子:音乐
social search
Social search社会搜索
  • Algorithmic search  Social search规则搜索社会搜索
    • Use information of files, email etc. on your computer to determine relevance使用你的电脑文件里的信息来决定相关性
      • Example: Illumio例如:Illumio
    • Customers helping customers: People answer questions消费者互助: 人们回答问题
      • Exmple: Yahoo Answers例如:Yahoo Answers
social search korea
Social search – Korea韩国的社会搜索
          • KoreanClick 2007.07
  • Naver
    • 77% of searches占77%的搜索
      • 110M queries per day by 16 M unique users per day out of 48M citizens4800万人口中,每天有11000万条询问来自于1600万个用户
    • Knowledge iN (since 2002)Knowledge iN(始于2002年)
      • 44k questions posted per day每天有44000条问题
      • 110k answers received per day每天会收到110,000条回复
      • Cumulative 70M累计达到7000万条
  • Other search engines
    • Daum.net 11%Daum.net占11%
    • Yahoo 4.4%Yahoo占4.4%
    • Google 1.7%Google占1.7%
knowledge search yahoo 2003 in korea yahoo
Knowledge Search, Yahoo 2003 in Korea韩国版的Yahoo知识搜索工具
popular questions in korea
Popular questions in Korea什么问题在韩国最流行?
  • Why do people close their eyes while they are kissing?为什么人们接吻的时候要闭上眼睛?
  • The most common name in the world?世界上最通用的名字是什么?
  • What’s the truth of Bruce Lee’s death?李小龙的真正死因是什么?
  • Why do people get drunk more when drinking alcohol with a straw?为什么当人们使用吸管喝酒的时候更容易喝醉?
  • Are there any animals that commit suicide? 什么动物会自杀?
  • Is that true that most of The Great Commanders are short? 大多数的大人物都很矮,这种说法对吗?
  • Why is the Ocean salty? 为什么海水是咸的?
  • Why do people lift up their hands to show their joy of victory? 为什么人们要举起手来表示他们胜利的喜悦?
  • The Secret of Popularity of Harry Potter Series!! 哈里波特系列如此畅销的秘密。
  • Badly want to lose my weight.... Help. 非常非常想减肥….请帮忙!
amazing user adoption
Amazing user adoption…网络搜索的惊人增长

每周的网页浏览数

知识搜索

with a web search halo
…with a Web search halo网络搜索的惊人增长

每周的网页浏览数

网络搜索

知识搜索

yahoo taiwan launch 2004 12 yahoo 2004 12

Total Search Market Share (PVs)

Yahoo! 68%

Google 29%

MSN 1.5%

Yahoo Taiwan: Launch 2004.12Yahoo台湾(2004年12月诞生)

Total Search Market Reach

Total Search Market Share (PVs)

Total Search Market Reach

总的搜索市场范围

总的搜索市场份额

Yahoo! 89%

Yahoo! 68%

Y! Knowledge 67%

Google 51%

MSN 24%

Source: InsightXplore ARO

yahoo answers us launch 2005 12 yahoo answers 2005 12
Yahoo Answers US: Launch 2005.12Yahoo Answers美国(2005年12月诞生)

Answer.yahoo.com

Answer.google.com

Qna.com.com

typical interaction
Typical interaction典型的互动
  • Example: I need a 7th grade science experiment using food and how quickly it molds例如:我需要七年级的用食物来观察多久发霉的科学实验
us web search
US web search美国的网络搜索
  • US web search market share: Y! flat, Google taking share from MSN and AOL美国的网络搜索市场份额:Yahoo和Google超过了MSN和AOL

Source: ComscoreqSearch reports

Quarterly data reflects end of period data

landscape of web search
Landscape of Web Search网络搜索行业的特点
  • Levers to gain market share两个赢得市场份额的要素
    • Superior quality
    • Distribution质量和分销渠道
  • Mechanisms to lock-in share锁定市场份额的办法
    • Differentiated content差异化的内容
    • Superior monetization较好的货币化
  • Country leader has advantage本土领先优势
    • US (Google), KR (Naver), CN (Baidu)Google在美国,Naver在韩国,Baidu在中国
  • New players face significant barrier to entry进入壁垒高
    • Brand and user habits dominate品牌和用户习惯起主导作用:
social search has the potential to change the game social search
Social search has the potential to change the game Social search 很有可能改变游戏规则
  • Consumer need消费者需求
    • Platform enabling communities of people to share 创造世界上最大的平台,使交易各方能够共享来自于经验的和后来学习的知识
      • Experiences
      • Long tail knowledge
  • Game changing potential游戏规则改变前景
    • Critical mass of content and community of knowledge enthusiasts创造一个必不可少的信息群以及一个由热心人建立的知识社区
    • Change the search experience改变搜索经历
why is this game changing

Share Knowledge 知识共享

Ask Answers询问答案

Ask

Google/Yahoo

ask family/friends

. . .

Facebook

. . .

Wikipedia

Blog

Share

Person with Knowledge有答案的人

Why is this game changing?为什么游戏规则会改变?

Person with a Question?有疑问的人

learnings
Learnings经验之二
  • The expertise is in the tail专家位于尾部(占少数)
  • It’s about the people以人为本

怀孕和做父母的最佳答案

use in politics hilary clinton asking about healthcare
Use in politics: Hilary Clinton asking about healthcare

Hilary Clinton

根据你的个人家庭生活经验,你认为应该怎样提高美国的健康护理水平?

social networks contacts
Social Networks (“Contacts”)社交网络(“联络”)
    • Build your knowledge network by connecting with the people you trust and the topics you care about通过与你信任的人和你关心的问题联系建立你的知识网络
  • Benefits 好处
    • More personal experience更私人化的经历
    • More productive experience更有成果的经历
    • Faster, easier access…更快
    • … to more useful, helpful, relevant information更简单地找到更有用、更相关的信息
the five levels1
The five levels

Web 2.0

Web1.0

increase of communication five levels 5
Increase of Communication: Five levels增进沟通的5个层次
  • Architectures of Collaboration, Community协作社区体系
  • Architectures of Interaction交互体系
  • Architectures of Participation参与贡献体系
    • Remember, share, discover记住,共享,发现
    • Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献
  • Architectures of Experimentation实验体系
    • Act: A/B test, active learning, surveys …做法:A/B测试,主动学习,问卷设计…
  • Data Strategy 数据收集分析
    • Collection, mining: Describe, predict数据挖掘:描述,预测

Web 2.0

Web1.0

1 data collection and analysis amazon com 1 amazon com
1. Data collection and analysis (Amazon.com)1.数据收集和分析(Amazon.com)
  • Level层次
    • Customer消费者
    • Orders订单
    • Session aggregates访问总计
    • Clicks 点击
  • Data collectedin 20072007年搜集的数据
    • 100 MB
    • 10 GB
    • 1 TB
    • 100 TB

Amount of data

数据量

sources of data
Sources of data
  • Order data订单
    • E.g., Amazon.com例如:亚马逊网站
    • A few GB per year每年几百亿
  • Click data点击数据
    • E.g., Facebook web logs例如:Facebook网络链接
    • A few TB per day每天几万亿
  • Intention data意图数据
    • E.g., Google search logs例如:google的搜索网页
  • Attention data关注数据
    • E.g., Del.icio.us tags例如Del.icio.us
  • Interaction data信息数据
    • Social network data, email headers从社会网络,从电子邮件标题
  • Location data地点数据
    • GPS, mobile phones从全球定位系统,从移动电话
3 participation 3
3. Participation3.参与
  • 1. Data Analysis数据分析
    • Data mining: Description, prediction数据挖掘:描述,预测
  • 2. Architectures of Experimentation实验体系
    • A/B test, active learning, survey design…A/B测试,主动学习,问卷设计
  • 3. Architectures of Participation参与体系
    • Remember, share, discover记住,共享,发现
    • Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献
    • Self-expression自我表达
slide41

Click to Call Business

Click to Call!点击 直接通话

make customer feedback trivially easy
Make customer feedback trivially easy获取消费者反馈易如反掌
  • Capture context automatically自动捕获内容

I went to the bathroom and came back, and the page was still loading!!我去了浴室,又回来,网页却还在下载!!

money economy intention economy attention economy

Click点击

Money Economy  Intention Economy  Attention Economy货币经济意图经济注意力经济

Only able to click on links given on site.只能点击网站链接

from intention to attention

Search搜索

Click点击

From intention to attention从意图到注意力

Express intention. Doesn’t depend on result.表达意图。独立于结果

Only able to click on links given by site.只能点击网站链接

from intention to attention1

Tag书签

Search搜索

Amount of specificity increases针对性愈加明显

Click点击

From intention to attention从意图到注意力

Label item. To remember, share,discover.留下标签。记忆,共享,发现

Express intention. Doesn’t depend on result.表达意图。独立于结果

Only able to click on links given by site.只能点击网站链接

example del icio us del icio us
Example: del.icio.us例子:del.icio.us
  • Tags are distilled attention, a pure form of attention.书签是过滤的了注意力,是纯粹的注意力
  • You are what you tag.书签展示真我
  • You are what you are tagged as / who you are tagged by.书签决定你的存在

Discover other users who tagged the page找到给同一页面贴上书签的其他网友

Follow a tagand discover a topic跟随书签发现话题

Follow a user and discover what he is interested in探索该网友的兴趣爱好

example flickr flickr
Example: flickr例子:flickr

Quentin Lee, Filmmaker

(Drift, Ethan Mao)

你想评论一下吗?

the tectonic shift in trust
The Tectonic Shift in Trust信息的结构性转变

The Age of Deference服从时代

The Age of Reference关系时代

Most trusted source信任度最高

The man on the street

Friends and family

Alternative opinions

Celebrities

Establishedauthorities

Elders

Leaders

领导

Leaders

Elders

Experts

Celebrities

Alternative opinions

Friends and family

The man on the street

长者

专家

名人

备选方案

亲友

Least trusted

Source信任度最低

陌生人

what is happening now

One-to-many一对多

Many-to-many多对多

What is happening now?新世界
  • Empower millions of users to contribute上百万网民共同参与
    • del.icio.us: tag web pages网页书签
    • flickr.com: tag photos照片书签
    • 43things.com: tag life goals目标书签
network of books based on customers who bought also bought
Network of Books based on Customers who Bought Also Bought书籍网络:买这本书的人也会买那本

来源Source: Valdis Krebs

what blogs are linking to weigend com weigend com
What blogs are linking to weigend.com?有哪些博客有weigend.com的链接?
chris anderson s blog longtail com aug 16 2006 entry chris anderson longtail com 2006 8 16
Chris Anderson’s blog: LongTail.com (Aug 16 2006 entry) Chris Anderson的博客:LongTail.com(2006年8月16日)
recommendations create demand in the long tail
Recommendations create demand in the “long tail”“长尾效应”中的推荐刺激需求

39% of Turns from titles 2001-30,000

50% of Turns from titles 1,150-30,000

4 interaction 4
4. Interaction4.交互
  • 1. Data Analysis数据分析
    • Data mining: Description, prediction数据挖掘:描述,预测
  • 2. Architectures of Experimentation实验体系
    • A/B test, active learning, survey design…A/B测试,主动学习,问卷设计
  • 3. Architectures of Participation参与体系
    • Remember, share, discover记住,共享,发现
    • Empower and incentivize people to contribute给予人们贡献的权力并激励他们来贡献
    • Self-expression自我表达
  • 4. Architectures of Interaction交互体系
platform ebay feedback ratings reputation system ebay
Platform: eBay feedback (ratings, reputation system)平台:eBay反馈(评级,信誉系统)
who is checking me out
Who is checking me out?谁浏览了我的网站?

最近浏览了我的

联系页的成员

xing linkedin openbc
Xing/LinkedIn, openBC
  • Monetization货币化
    • Advertising广告
    • Subscriptions订阅
    • Especially Recruiting / Headhunting招聘/猎头
  • Innovation革新
    • Auto-create resumes, and make it easy for people to edit their own resumes自动生成简历以便随时编辑
dating match com fridae com match com fridae com
Dating (Match.com, Fridae.com, …)网上交友(Match.com, Fridae.com, …)
  • Monetization货币化
    • Subscription订阅
      • But since inventory is key, need to also have a free version (network effect)因为库存是关键,也需要有免费版本(网络效应)
    • Advertising广告
  • Innovation创新
    • Ranking bi-directional (as one choice)双向排序(作为选择)
    • Ranking based on implicit behavior基于隐秘行为排序
    • Data mining to understand physical advertising数据挖掘以理解实物广告
    • Modeling modalities vs asking explicitly规律建模与直接询问
    • Reputation, domain specific名誉,特定领域
  • General problem普通问题
    • Demand very uneven需求很不均匀
      • Very attractive or influential people get more traffic than they want, and have very little to gain from the list, and then unsubscribe非常引人注目或者有影响的人得到过多访问,而并未从列表中获利多少,所以可能取消注册
      • Need to create a currency (such as ‘virtual red roses) 需要创建流通货币(如虚拟红玫瑰)
online personals and dating
Online Personals and Dating 网上社交和约会
  • 2004 market size: $ 1 billion2004年市场规模:10亿美元
    • Most profitable online content!最有利可图的网上内容!
    • Current doubling time: 1 year目前翻番的时间跨度:1年
  • match.com
    • 1M subscribers ($20/month)100万注册用户(每月会费20美元)
    • Churn “problem” 会员流动“问题”
      • Average customer lifetime 3-5 months 注册用户的平均持续期为3-5个月
      • 1/3 of subscribers that quit re-subscribe within 12 months注销的用户中有1/3在12个月内重新注册
  • friendster.com
    • 3M subscribers (10/2003)300万注册用户(截至2003年10月)
  • And more…更多……
  • Mobile phone dating手机交友
sept 2003 u s snapshot 27m males age 18 34 on web 2003 9 2700 18 34
Sept 2003 U.S. snapshot: 27M males age 18-34 on Web美国2003年9月概况:2700万18-34岁的男性网民
  • Males in U.S. age 18-34 美国18-34岁的男性
    • Total users:27M因特网用户数: 2700万人 (= 100%)
    • Adult Sites: 19M visitors 成人网站:1900万访问者 (= 71%)
    • Personals Sites: 9M visitors 社交网站:900万访问者 (= 32%)
    • More details 更多内容
      • 27 million 18-34 year-old males who used the Internet in September spent an average of 32 hours per month online (in September, per person).九月份使用过因特网的2700万18-34岁男性,平均每人每月在线时间为32小时。
      • This is 17 percent above than the 27 hours the average Internet user spent online during the month.这比全体因特网用户本月平均在线时间27小时多出27%。
      • Males aged 18-34 are also more engaged Internet users, voraciously consuming 3,370 pages per user in September.18-34岁的男性属于较为狂热的网民,九月份每人贪婪地访问了3370个页面。
platforms
Platforms平台
  • Enabling others让他人帮你做
  • Example: Amazon’s “Mechanical Turk” (www.mturk.com)例子:亚马逊的“机械土耳其人”(www.mturk.com)
  • Application: CastingWords.com应用:CastingWords.com
current situation market dominated by large players
Current Situation: Market dominated by large players现状一:大公司占据主导地位
current situation big companies are dominating the market
Current Situation:Big companies are dominating the market现状一:大公司占据主导地位
  • Sources: 资料来源
    • Analysis Report on IM software 2006 from iresearch艾瑞即时通讯类软件2006分析报告
    • Analysis Report on Market Share of On-line Advertisement 2006 from iresearch艾瑞2006年中国网络广告市场份额报告
    • Report on China On-line Games of Q4 2006 from Analysys International易观2006年第4季度中国网络游戏市场季度监测
    • Report on On-line Shopping 2006 from China IntelliConsulting Corporation正望中国2006年度网上购物调查报告
mobile dominates in 2007 2007
Mobile dominates in 2007 现状二:2007年手机占据主导地位
  • Internet users: China 2nd worldwide, with highest nr of users under 30 years worldwide中国在互联网用户数量上排名第二,30岁以下的互联网用户数量则超过世界上其他任何国家
  • Mobile phone users: China highest worldwide
  • Mobile games : 1.48 billion RMB in 2006 (up 50% over 2005) 2006年中国手机游戏市场规模为14.8亿元人民币,同比增长50%
  • Mobile search increasing但手机搜索正在逐步兴起,前景广阔。
  • Profit of wireless value-added business decreasing.从互联网公司财报来看,无线增值业务收入为中国互联网公司带来的效益在下降。
      • Source:CNNIC statistic report of China internet development (19th )资料来源: 中国互联网络信息中心 (CNNIC) 19th中国互联网络发展状况统计报告信息产业部2007年5月统计 数据
comparison of 70 s 80 s and 90 s
Comparison of 70’s&80’s and 90’s半人马和虚拟一代
comparison of 70 s 80 s and 90 s1
Comparison of 70’s&80’s and 90’s半人马和虚拟一代
fast growing 90 s generations 90 s
Fast growing 90’s generations 虚拟一代(90’s)快速成长
  • The Coverage of users between 18-24 years old is the highest, reached to 38.8%, the future coverage of 90’s is expected higher18~24岁间网民的普及率最高,达到38.8%,90’s的未来普及率将更高
  • Internet is the main medium for 90’s, and which is different from the generation who grew up with the TV90’s以互联网为主媒介,不同于在电视为主媒介环境下成长的一代
  • Virtual is the reality, all is the now虚拟就是现实,一切都是现在
  • Collaboration online after the disappearance of time and room时间和空间消失后的网上协作生产
  • Self-centered perceptual consumption 自我为中心的感性消费
  • All media experienced communication 全媒体的体验式沟通
future iii the innovation of web 2 0 is going on web2 0
Future III: The innovation of Web 2.0 is going on 未来三:中国Web2.0革新仍在继续
  • 10 of the top 20global websites are online community sites 在全球访问量最大的前20家网站中,社区/分享类网站基本占到一半
    • SNS, social networking sitesSNS 社交网络网站
  • Focused on very few sites in the US…
    • YouTube has 60% market share (160M users in May 2007)YouTube今年五月市场占有率达到60%(有16000万用户
    • MySpace has 80% of pageviews of community sites MySpace访问量占网络社区访问总量的80%
    • Facebook is fastest growing (35M active users in Jul 2007, doubling every half year)Facebook发展最快(2007年7月有3500万在线用户,每半年翻一番)
  • … but scattered in China… 但是中国的网络社区市场非常分散
four dimension
Four dimension 四维度空间

Information

信息

  • Footprint脚印
  • Notes留言
  • Message消息
  • IM即时消息

Video视频

  • Space空间
  • Blog博客
  • BBS论坛

Audio音频

Picture

图片

Multi-dimension

多个维度

Text文字

Multi group

  • 多群体

Single group

单群体

Individual

孤立

Multi- way

多样手段

Interactive交互

Person人

One-dimension单一维度

Global全球脑

One-way单一手段

Relationship

关系

2 D二维

  • Avatar
  • Online gaming网游
  • SL
  • Dating交友
  • Business商务

3D三维

剧本化

Creation创造

Role-play 扮演

recent developments in social networking space in china
Recent developments in social networking space in China中国目前的社交网络空间发展
  • Baidu launched social search (similar to Yahoo Answers)百度搜索社区初步成型(类似于Yahoo Answers)
    • Baidu innovation: PostBa (2006)百度创新:PostBa(2006年)
    • Yahoo Answers itself inspired by Naver in KoreaYahoo Answers灵感来自于韩国的Naver
  • Sina and Sohu add community and social networking aspects to their blogs新浪/搜狐的博客正向社区和社交网络形态演化
  • More than a dozen clones of Second Life in China (July 2007)中国有12多家企业在推出或正在推出类似Second Life的服务(2007年7月)