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Climate Change: Globalization of Impacts & Solutions. Sassan Saatchi UCLA/Institute of Environment NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Email: saatchi@congo.jpl.nasa.gov. Security Issues and Impacts: Comparative Perspectives on Europe and Eurasia

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slide1

Climate Change:

Globalization of Impacts & Solutions

Sassan Saatchi

UCLA/Institute of Environment

NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory

California Institute of Technology

Email: saatchi@congo.jpl.nasa.gov

Security Issues and Impacts: Comparative Perspectives on Europe and Eurasia

UCLA, June 1, 2007

slide2

Climate Change

The Environmental Consequences of Growth

  • Climate change is a global problem caused by human activities at local, regional,

global scale

  • Roots of environmental changes are deeply embedded in processes that

generate economic growth

  • Mitigation of effects of climate change challenges our economic views of growth,

progress, and basic human food and energy consumption

vostok past climate and co 2
Vostok: Past climate and CO2

Petit et al., Nature, 1999

slide4

Carbon Cycle:Carbon cycles through pools or reservoirs of carbon on land, in the

ocean, and in sedimentary rock formations over daily, seasonal, annual, millennial and

geological time scales.

slide6

Climate Change &

Human Activity

What is the Global Carbon Cycle?

vehicles per thousand people u s compared to other countries

u

Industrialized Pacific

l

Western Europe

Vehicles per Thousand People:U.S. Compared to Other Countries

Historical U.S. Vehicles Compared to Vehicles per 1000 People around the World

United States

Vehicles per 1000 People

Eastern Europe

Middle East

n

Former USSR

Africa

l

Central & S. America

u

l

n

u

Developing Asia

China

n

Sources:U.S. dataVehicles: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics 2000, Table VM-1, and earlier annual editions.Population: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Time Series of National Population Estimates: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2001Other countries/regionsEnergy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0484(2002), p. 256.

slide11

Global Carbon Cycle

Keeling Curve

Houghton, 1998

slide13

1984

1997

slide17
Metrics for “Dangerous” Change

Extermination of Animal & Plant Species

1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species

2. Unsustainable Migration Rates

Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level

1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data

2. Ice Sheet Response Time

Regional Climate Change

1. General Statement

2. Droughts/Floods

recent increases in the growing season length at high northern latitudes
Recent increases in the growing season length at high northern latitudes

0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300

Day of Thaw Day of Freeze Growing Season Length (days)

1998 Anomaly

Smith, Saatchi, Randerson [2004]

slide19

Mapping changes in global net primary production

near real-time depiction of the droughts in the Amazon and Horn of Africa, May 2005

increasing fire a smoking gun for changing climate
Increasing Fire: A Smoking Gun for Changing Climate?

Large Fires Alaska and Canada

1980 – 1990

M. Flannigan, T. Swetnam et al

slide23

Case Study

in Ecotone Region of Cameroon

Economic Commission

For Africa, 2001

slide27

MODIS Change Detection

Percent Woody Cover

0-30%

31-60%

61-100%

Hecht & Saatchi, BioScience,in press 2007

1-30%

global terrestrial net uptake of carbon peaks during the 21 st century then levels off or declines
Global terrestrial net uptake of carbon peaks during the 21st century then levels off or declines
21 st century global warming
21st Century Global Warming

Climate Simulations for IPCC 2007 Report

►Climate Model Sensitivity 2.7-2.9ºC for 2xCO2

(consistent with paleoclimate data & other models)

►Simulations Consistent with 1880-2003 Observations

(key test = ocean heat storage)

►Simulated Global Warming < 1ºC in Alternative Scenario

Conclusion: Warming < 1ºC if additional forcing ~ 1.5 W/m2

Source: Hansen et al., to be submitted to J. Geophys. Res.

slide30

The annual mean change

of temperature (map) and

the regional seasonal change (upper box: DJF; lower box: JJA) for the scenarios A2 and B2

slide31

The annual mean change

of precipitation (map) and

the regional seasonal change (upper box: DJF; lower box: JJA) for the scenarios A2 and B2

slide36
Methods to Reduce CO2 Emissions

1.Energy Efficiency & Conservation

More Efficient Technology

Life Style Changes

2.Renewable & CO2-Free Energy

Hydro

Solar, Wind, Geothermal

Nuclear

3.CO2 Capture & Sequestration

 No Silver Bullet

 All Three are Essential

slide37

The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy

  • Affluence
  • is not just money…
  • Adequate, clean water
  • Good health
  • Education

Affluence

Japan

United States

France

United Kingdom

South Korea

Mexico

Poland

El Salvador

Russia

China

Poverty

Bangladesh

Burkina Faso

Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2;

Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars.

Updated May 2002

u s dependence on foreign oil
Saudi Arabia 26%

Iraq 11%

Kuwait 10%

Iran 9%

UAE 8%

Venezuela 6%

Russia 5%

Mexico 3%

Libya 3%

China 3%

Nigeria 2%

U.S. 2%

U.S. 26%

Japan 7%

China 6%

Germany 4%

Russia 3%

S. Korea 3%

France 3%

Italy 3%

Mexico 3%

Brazil 3%

Canada 3%

India 3%

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil

Have Oil

Use Oil

The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest

consuming nations combined.

Updated August 2002. Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1.

slide48
Resource data may imply a change in the energy mix and the introduction of new sources of energy during the 21st century
slide49

Key Message

Environment

Supply Demand

Josef Koudelka/CHAOS

LEBANON. Beirut. City centre. 1991.