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PRIVATE EQUITY & CORPORATE FINANCE. STRUCTURED FINANCE. LOAN SALES. LOAN SERVICING. DEBT PLACEMENT. INVESTMENT SALES. O ’ Connor Forecast Luncheon. December 9, 2009. Todd Marix Senior Managing Director. IN THE NEWS. Foreclosures set record, but drop seen.

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slide1

PRIVATE EQUITY & CORPORATE FINANCE

STRUCTURED FINANCE

LOAN SALES

LOAN SERVICING

DEBT PLACEMENT

INVESTMENT SALES

O’Connor Forecast Luncheon

December 9, 2009

Todd Marix

Senior Managing Director

slide2

IN THE NEWS

  • Foreclosures set record, but drop seen

"Houston-area real estate foreclosures hit a record, but experts said the problem should taper off next year. But commercial real estate foreclosures probably will continue to increase.”

December 2, 1987

  • FDIC Chairman says agency “hard- pressed” after nearly 200 bank failures

"Although losses and insolvencies at banks can reflect incompetent management, fraud or poor loan decisions, the performance of the banking system generally reflects the overall health of the economy."

December 4, 1987

  • State jobless rate jumps to 8.5%

"The number of unemployed Texans swelled again in November, pushing the state's unemployment rate up 0.7 percent to 8.5 percent, federal officials said today…”

December 28, 1987

  • Dow rallies to top 2,000 mark

“The Dow Jones industrial average rose above the 2,000 mark Wednesday for the first time in months…”

December 24, 1987

slide3

CONTRARY TO WHAT YOU MAY HAVE HEARD

  • Properties are trading at a increasing pace
  • Interest is high for the right product and the right story
  • Not all of the properties trading are distressed
  • Financing has evolved to meet the market and become more creative
  • Full marketing process still the best method to drive price and uncover new buyers

2009 Increasing Transaction Volume

As of December 7, 2009

Source: Real Capital Analytics

slide4

RECENTLY SOLD: GABLES AUGUSTA

YOC: 2004

Total Units: 312

Class: A

Submarket: Galleria

# Offers: 20

Cap Rate: 6.50%

Close Date: June 2009

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RECENTLY SOLD: CHAMPIONS WOODS

YOC: 1983

Total Units: 186

Class: B

Submarket: FM 1960 West/Champions

# Offers: 17

Cap Rate: 8.25%

Close Date: September 2009

slide6

RECENTLY SOLD: WESTCHASE FOREST

YOC: 1999

Total Units: 400

Class: A-

Submarket: Westchase

# Offers: 27

Cap Rate: 7.60%

Close Date: October 2009

slide7

RECENTLY SOLD: TIAA PORTFOLIO

YOC: 1988-1994

Total Units: 470

Class: A and B

Submarket: Medical Center

# Offers: 10 Portfolio/50 Individual

Cap Rate: 7.50%

Close Date: December 2009

slide8

UNDER CONTRACT: LEGACY AT WESTERN OAKS

YOC: 2001

Total Units: 479

Class: A

Submarket: Southwest Austin

# OMs: 154

# Tours: 29

# Offers: 36

Est. Close Date: December 2009

slide9

THE NEXT WAVE OF PRODUCT

  • We are actively tracking 83 properties (28,000 units) that are in receivership, in REO or posted for foreclosure
  • Additional 51 properties (10,000 units) that have been transferred to special servicer
  • Total of 134 properties (38,000 units) in some form of REO competing for capital in next 12-24 months

Estimated Maturity Profile of Commercial Mortgages

slide10

FINANCING THE NEXT WAVE: BANK DEBT

YOC: 1982

Units: 270

Class: C

Submarket: FM 1960 W

Status: Closed

slide11

FINANCING THE NEXT WAVE: SELLER FINANCING

YOC: 1983

Units: 320

Class: C

Submarket: FM 1960 W

Status: Marketing

slide12

FINANCING THE NEXT WAVE: RESTRUCTURED / ASSUMABLE CMBS

Commons on Edgebrook

Brookstone

YOC: 1970

Units: 440

Class: C

Submarket: Pasadena

Status: Closed

YOC: 1982

Units: 224

Class: C

Submarket: Alief

Status: Closed

slide13

GOOD NEWS: YOU’RE IN TEXAS

  • Report: Texas cities amongst strongest markets in the country

“Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio were included in the nation's 20 strongest metro areas by the Brookings Institute. The Washington, D.C. company’s quarterly MetroMonitor ranks the nation’s 100 largest metro areas for their economic performance based on five key indicators — employment, unemployment, output, home prices and foreclosure rates.”

September 15, 2009

  • Texas cities predicted to lead recovery

"Four Texas markets will be among the first in the nation to recover from the recession, says a nationwide forecast by IHS Global Insight. San Antonio and Austin will lead the way, bouncing back to their pre-recession job levels sometime next year, while Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth are among eight other metropolitan areas predicted to recover by 2011."

September 28, 2009

  • Texas metros top 2009 best-performing cities list

"Austin took the top spot while Houston moved up 11 spaces to claim the fifth spot on this year's Milken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate Partners Best Performing Cities Index. San Antonio, Fort Worth and Dallas ranked 11-13 respectively. Texas’ strong position in our best performing cities study demonstrates that a favorable business climate, combined with a low-cost/low-tax environment, is highly supportive of job creation."

November 19, 2009

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GOOD NEWS: MULTI-HOUSING SUPPLY

4% Total Supply

5% Total Supply