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Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system. László Kajdi Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems, 27-30 June 2011.

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population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system

Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system

László Kajdi

Hungarian Central Statistical Office

Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems, 27-30 June 2011

reasons for the development of the vital statistics system
Reasons for the development of the vital statistics system
  • Change in legal regulations
  • Change in technical, IT circumstances
  • New reuirements of political, social decision makers
  • Change of international data production demands
  • Needs of users, professional stakeholders
  • Changes in social-demographic processes
hungarian vital statistics system
Hungarian vital statistics system

Civil registration system:

  • Livebirths, deaths, including foetal and infant deaths
  • Marriages, registered partnerships, divorces

Internal and international migration

Legal background: Act on Statistics, decree on the implementation

Comprehensive data collection, processing, dissemination

Next census in October 2011

i vital statistics data and indicators based on census data
I. Vital statistics data and indicators based on census data
  • Vital statistics by socio-economic status (SES)
  • Fertility analyses
  • Projection of the female population by the number of children
  • Census data on migration
  • Differences between census and projected population
i 1 vital statistics by ses
I.1 Vital statistics by SES
  • If census and vital statistics data linked by an identification number: directly
  • If there is no ID number: census population = denominator
  • 3 main indicators: education, occupation, economic status
  • Numerator-denominator bias; standards
  • LFS, HALE
i 2 fertility analyses
I.2 Fertility analyses
  • Number of children by cohorts, analyses by SES
  • Sex preferences – level of fertility
  • Differences by legal and actual marital status
  • Information on ethnicity
  • Male fertility
i 3 projection of the female population by the number of children
I.3 Projection of the female population by the number of children
  • Female census population by date of birth, age, number of children as initial data
  • Tables from the data of annual livebirth and death statistics with the same disaggregation
  • The projection is based on the biological live birth order
  • Main purpose: analysis of fertility and childbearing behaviour by cohorts in intercensus years
i 4 census data on migration
I.4 Census data on migration
  • Fertility and mortality differences between the immigrating and native population
  • Census: improve the accuracy of migration data
  • Mirror statistics: use at other fields too, e.g. births and deaths in foreign countries
i 5 differences between census and projected population
I.5 Differences between census and projected population
  • Is it worth to revise population data and indicators, in what disaggregation
  • No international standards for the acceptable deviation
  • No break in time series vs. two data for the same time period, resource need
ii sample surveys as complementary information
II. Sample surveys as complementary information
  • Healthy life expectancy (HLE)
  • Unmet need for contraception
  • Voluntary and involuntary childlessness
  • Realizing childbearing intentions
ii 1 healthy life expectancy
II.1 Healthy life expectancy
  • Extended life expectancy vs. life quality
  • Measuring mortality conditions and health status paralell with time spent in good health conditions
  • Information on health status from repr. surveys, EU-SILC e.g.
  • Soft indicator: answers by self-assessment
ii 2 unmet need for contraception
II.2 Unmet need for contraception
  • Differences between developing and developed countries
  • Problems: sensitivity, resources
  • Hungarian experiences
  • Complementary indicator: induced abortions per hundred live births
ii 3 voluntary and involuntary childlessness
II.3 Voluntary and involuntary childlessness
  • Countries with low fertility, trends of the age of childbearing and marriage
  • Reasons for childlessness: voluntary, involuntary
  • Social effects: Low fertility trap, health risk factors, social policy
ii 4 realizing childbearing intentions
II.4 Realizing childbearing intentions
  • Family planning – the use of modern contraceptive methods
  • Childbearing intentions vs. Actual fertility
  • Role of sample surveys, social policy
  • REPRO: 4 countries: Bulgaria, Hungary, Netherlands, Switzerland; 3 categories: intentional parents, postponers, abandoners