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Punditry Invention. Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures September 2009. 1. “All progress depends on the unreasonable man.” - George Bernard Shaw . 2. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” - Paul Romer. 3. reality check?. 4.

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Punditry Invention

Vinod Khosla

Khosla Ventures

September 2009

1





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“The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”

- Western Union Internal Memo, 1876

5


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“There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home.”

- Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and Founder of DEC, 1977

6


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“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” in their home.”

- Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895

7


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Extrapolating the past… in their home.”

“A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.”

NY Times, 1936

The reality…

The V-2, in 1942, Sputnik in 1957, and many more…

8

Source: http://listverse.com/2007/10/28/top-30-failed-technology-predictions/


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Extrapolating the past… in their home.”

1949: “Where a calculator like the ENIAC today is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh only 1½ tons.”

The reality…

9

Source: Popular Mechanics, Wikipedia


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forecasting in their home.”

10


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“It is the mark of an educated person to look for precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

- Aristotle

11


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oil price forecasts precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”(1985-2005)

$51

5 year

forecast

error

Forecast

10 year

forecast

error

Actual

$15

1985

1990

1995

2000

12

Data/Source: World Oil Prices Barrel) (current $ / - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting


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gas price forecasts precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”(1985-2005)

$8.00

5 year

forecast

error

10 year

forecast

error

Forecast

Actual

$1.00

1985

1990

1995

2000

13

Data/Source: Natural Gas Wellhead Prices (current $ /1000cf) - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting


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EIA Oil Price Forecasts: 2005 through 2009 precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

2009 forecast

The same regression repeated year after year!

2008 forecast

2007 forecast

2006 forecast

Colored arrows represent price range for previous year

2005 forecast

2005

2030

15

Source: EIA, data for Imported Low-Sulfur Light Crude Oil (2006-2009), 2005 forecast is “world oil price”


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World Oil Supply Projections: 2006-2030? precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

16

Source: Foreign Policy, citing McKinsey Global Institute


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telecommunications: actual vs. forecast demand precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

1,000 GB/s

1995 projection

1987 projection

1983 projection

1980 projection

1978 projection

1 GB/s

17

Source: internal forecasts for major telecommunications company


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Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

1980 forecast for 2000

forecast

actual

18

Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml


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yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

1980’s phone:

year 2000 phone:

19


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quantitative modeling precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”flaws

  • models with given inputs are precise but inaccurate

    • low “standard deviation”, but with high “standard error”

    • input the measurable, ignore the immeasurable

    • obscured embedded assumptions

20


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the folly of predictions: precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

tetlock study

hundred’s of experts.

80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years

Results: Experts are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys

21

Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1


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more? precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

… specialists are not significantly more reliable than non-specialists in guessing what is going to happen in the region they study…

22

Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1


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why? precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

“…. experts were much tougher in assessing the validity of information that undercut their theory than they were in crediting information that supported it.”

- Tetlock

23

Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1


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The losing mentality… precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

“If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this."

- Spencer Silver on work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads.

Source: Wikipedia


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“extrapolation of the past” precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

vs.

“inventing the future”

25


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redefining swans precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

26


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“black swan” precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

…rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability

27

Source: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan”


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calera precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

... turning problem carbon dioxide into a feedstock.

28


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kior precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

“a million year crude production cycle reduced to hours?”

29


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transonic/ecomotors precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

“50-100% more efficient engines cutting world oil consumption in half”

30


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soraa precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

“10X less electricity use for lighting”

31


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battery black swan rumblings? precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

32


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moore’s law: precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”not a new paradigm!

$1,000 of computing buys

exponential scale

vacuum

tube

integrated circuit

(moore’s law!)

electromechanical

relay

transistor

Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace!

33


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precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”relevant scale” solutions for

... oil

... coal

... materials

... (efficiency of oil & coal use)

34


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“... precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”relevant cost”

“...relevant scale”

“...relevant adoption”

35


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reality: electric cars precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

36


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reality: $2,500 nano precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

37


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reality: electric cars precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

38

38


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reality: electric cars precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

over next 40 years, car fleet = 3 billion cars

… China (2050) = total worldwide fleet today

… India (2050) = 50X current Indian fleet

… and yet I am optimistic!

39

Source: The Economist


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as surely as... precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

1985:NOT a PC in every home

1990: NOemail for grandma

1995: NOTthe internet

2000: NOpervasive mobile

2005: NOfinancial implosion

2010+: reason for optimism

40


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reason for optimism: precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.”

users

radio

TV

cable

internet

50 million

1922

2002

41

Source: Morgan Stanley


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“…every strategic inflection point [is] characterized by a ‘10X’ change …”

“There’s wind and then there is a typhoon, there are waves and then there’s a tsunami”

- Andy Grove

42


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exponential innovation… a ‘10X’ change …”

assuming ~2% rate of change…

= X units

to predict 2040 in 2010, we would need to predict 2010 in 1926!

= X units

2040

2010

1926

43


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world electricity demand a ‘10X’ change …”

(18,000 TWh/y)

can be produced from

300 x 300 km²

=0.23% of all deserts

distributed over “10 000” sites

land is not (remotely) a constraint

3000 km

45

Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona


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three billion acres... a ‘10X’ change …”

46


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nega a ‘10X’ change …”watt energy savings!

47


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nega a ‘10X’ change …”barrel energy efficiencies!

48


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brian arthur’s evolution... a ‘10X’ change …”

49


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path to black swans... a ‘10X’ change …”

more shots on goal!

50


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nine dots problem a ‘10X’ change …”

51

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI


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standard nine dots solution a ‘10X’ change …”

52

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI


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standard nine dots solution a ‘10X’ change …”

53

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI


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better: use just three lines a ‘10X’ change …”

54

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI


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mechanical engineer’s solution a ‘10X’ change …”

55

55


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geographer’s solution a ‘10X’ change …”

56

56


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wide line solution a ‘10X’ change …”

57

57


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…technology expands the ‘art of the possible.’ a ‘10X’ change …”

…today’s ‘unimaginable’ is tomorrow’s ‘conventional wisdom.’

58


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we can’t predict what will happen a ‘10X’ change …”

“Nobody knew early in 1921 where radio was really headed. Everything about broadcasting was uncertain. For my own part I expected that since it was a form of telephony, and since we were in the business of furnishing wires for telephony, we were sure to be involved in broadcasting somehow.”

- Walter Gifford, future President of AT&T, 1921

59


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200 years of technology speculation a ‘10X’ change …”

internet

10,000 semilog scale

computers

broadcasting

telephone,

electric lights

railroads

railroads

1785

1995

“Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment returns”

60

Source: Elliot Wave International; "Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns"


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Dotcom bubble… a ‘10X’ change …”

Terabytes

Morgan Stanley High Technology Index

61

Source: Andrew Odlyzko (University of Minnesota – Digital Technology Center) Morgan Stanley Technology Index from Yahoo Finance


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Connections in London a ‘10X’ change …”

new technology has a history...

7,000,000

99

93

90

95

“In 1885, Yale students who were getting ‘more light than they relished’ chopped down an electric pole erected at the corner of the campus…”

62

Source: When Old Technologies Were New


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“no change bigotry” a ‘10X’ change …”

vs.

“environmental everything”

vs.

pragmentalists

63


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to predict the future, a ‘10X’ change …”

invent it!

64


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irrational ideas: a ‘10X’ change …” “how to green” books

65


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... or get to a ‘10X’ change …”work.

[email protected] khoslaventures.com/resources.html

66



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Calera Corporation a ‘10X’ change …”

Built on carbon negative cement

66

66


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Living Homes a ‘10X’ change …”

And prefabricated, environmentally friendly, cheaper, LEEDS homes

67

67


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Soladigm a ‘10X’ change …”

Using electrochromatic windows

68

68


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Amyris a ‘10X’ change …”

LS9

Gevo

Kior

Mascoma

Range Fuels

Coskata

LanzaTech

Fueled from renewable sources

69

69


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Ramu a ‘10X’ change …”

EcoMotors

Transonic

Firefly

Seeo

Sakti3

Nanostellar

Tula Technologies

Hybradrive

With reduced fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

70

70


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Topanga a ‘10X’ change …”

Lit by high intensity, low power discharge lighting

71

71


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Ausra a ‘10X’ change …”

Altarock

Infinia

Stion

PVT Solar

Using renewable electricity

72

72


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Great Point Energy a ‘10X’ change …”

Cooking with natural gas from clean coal & biomass

73

73


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Lumenz a ‘10X’ change …”

Group IV

Soraa

Reading with LED lighting

74

74


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Kaai a ‘10X’ change …”

Watching HD laser TV

75

75


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NanoH2O a ‘10X’ change …”

Drinking desalinated water

76

76


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Segetis a ‘10X’ change …”

Safely using biobased plastics and chemicals

77

77


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Draths a ‘10X’ change …”

Biobased materials for your home

78

78


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Pax Streamline a ‘10X’ change …”

Staying comfortable with more efficient air conditioning

79

79


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Change every aspect of daily living a ‘10X’ change …”

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